Monday, 15 December 2014

NIFTY weekly analysis for 15 December’14 to 19 December’14


Elliott wave theory: It was giving all hints for a short term top just above 8620 levels. I was expecting a confirmation point of correction below 8500 levels. We got that desired correction. It has not done yet. It’s just corrective wave ‘a’. We will see a recovery wave ‘b’ and then a newer wave ‘c’ on downside. So far, if the magnitude of wave ‘a’ is more than 400 points then magnitude of wave ‘c’ will be also be more than 400 points. Key support for Nifty is at 8175 and then at 8135. Sooner or later, after a bounce, this will become 10% correction.

Market cycle: December is usually a good month for equity but now it has broken the trend and crude has changed the outlook of whole world. There is a strong fear of another global slowdown. Market wants a new valuation of stocks and commodity price after stimulus. It’s a bad news because I strongly believe that this market is highly overvalued. My sense is that crude oil can get a support at $55/bbl or nearby. If not then it can spread catastrophic effect on whole world.

Technical indicators: RSI has given warning for few weeks and we saw an impact last week. It shows that it was just a beginning. This prime indicator is still weak.   


Charting pattern: Previous reversal point was 8180, which has caused for correction towards 7723. So, same point of 8180 may offer some technical support. If not, then look for Elliott wave support point of 8135 and 8070. 

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