03 November 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We may see possible top at 8416 levels but higher levels demands caution. Technical support – 8180-8200 !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 03 November 2014: -

On 31 October 2014, FII Bought INR 1754.73 crs and DII Sold INR 276.49 crs

Above 8182, Nifty has generated a fresh up wave which is impulsive in nature. We saw many gaps up in past 10 trading sessions. A possible top may emerge at 8416. A cross above 8416 may trigger for more upside. We may see another gap up today also. This may irritate those traders who do not prefer to hold over night positions.

Moving forwards, Nifty will see support at 8180 to 8200 levels which was acting as resistance earlier. One needs to note that even after sharp rise, we have not seen any short signal yet on Nifty. A short was coming on Bank Nifty but that’s also moved above 17k marks to turn to buy.

For today’s trading session, opening may come in the range of 8350 levels. It is obvious to expect higher levels after a new all-time high. As of now, I am expecting Nifty to come near to 8416 levels which is 100% retrenchment of wave ‘1’. I still just not prefer to buy the rise as it is heavily overbought in short term chart. Hourly charts are advising caution for intraday trade from impulsive waves.

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Strategy for Nifty November future – We may see opening near 8400 levels. We saw run from 7760 to 8400 levels too fast in too furious way. Almost 30% rise came in gap up mode. Most important is that almost every technical trigger goes in gap up and none has filled yet. I again suggest waiting for intraday updates for better technical view point. So far, it’s up and buy. There is no short signal.  

S&P 500 (USA) – When S&P was below 1850 and everyone was bearish, I said for buy. Now, when everyone is so bullish, I am saying reverse. Do not buy. Above 2020, a rise is possible towards 2040 but nothing can sustain on rise. A quick dip may come after making a top. Let the rise go on. So far, sell signal has not came but it is close to form that only due to sharp rise. A possible 60-70 points dip may come sooner.