18 September 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nothing unexpected after fed meeting. Bond purchase will in October but near to zero interest rate will continue for indefinite time. Nifty Resistance – 7990 and 8018.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 September 2014: -

On 17 September 2014, FII Bought INR 136.08 crs and DII Sold INR 161.19 crs

Fed meeting outcome – So, what Yellen did? QE, i.e. “Quantitative Easing” will finally end next month with end of Bond purchase program but interest rate will near low for indefinite time even if we will see a very soft rise in interest rate by the end of year 2015. Fantastic – this is called QE 4. Welcome to new era of Jenet Yellen - A perfect Ben Barbanke follower.

It is of no use to debate whether it’s good or bad. So leave that topic. I personally never believe QE concept although I have to accept that stock prices are higher backed by those money. I do not know about real revival of economy. Except stock price nothing has improved so far. Fine, we are dealing only with stock price here.

Let us take a reaction – S&P hit a high just on dot at 2011 and slipped. So it has failed so far at 2011. I have already given 2013 as fresh bull’s breakout. Asian markets are higher at this point of time. US market didn’t react much as things were almost known to every trader. From past experience, we know that market used to get a shock with end of QE. Currency shock used to come. This is just too bad for emerging economies. At least emerging economies has bad experience with currency shocks. Let us see how they will react. Mr. Prime Minister – Be ready!!!

For today’s trading session, opening may come flat. Technical set up may not change much even after that. Based on chart, if Nifty does not stand tall above 8000 quickly then a fresh dip is very likely. Take a note that 20 DMA which is now at 8017 will act as stiff resistance. Even to bet for 20 DMA, we need to first see Nifty standing above 7990. Do not be long unless it stands above 7990 for 15 minutes. Do you know 50 DMA is at 7820.

Spoiler for global market can be just one big factor – Currency market. Almost every currency of emerging market is again showing fear on chart against USD. What can be good for US market may not be good for emerging market.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty September future – Nifty September future should open in the range of 7975 as coming from SGX Nifty. I have quoted a resistance of 8010 yesterday and we saw a dot high at 8010. For today also, 8010 to 8020 will act as stiff resistance. I may opt to add short on rise again if it fails at 8010. Below 7950____ a quicker dip will come.

S&P 500 (USA) – As I explained above, 2011 has tested on S&P and then a drop. Impulsive reaction after Jenet Yellen speech has failed to give me a break out above 2013. I repeat, as long as it is above 2000 we are likely to see a break out. I will not add any positive on S&P. Will ‘POST QE” shock come this time too? So far, I believe that it can come but we need to see that coming on chart. Pure, charting is suggesting me that if it breaks 1970 in September month then expect a horrible OCTOBER 2014. So far, 1970 is too far.