18 March 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expect 6565 as still trading resistance, crossover can give 6600-6625. So far, technical charts are still safer with decisive support at 6400-6415 levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 March 2014: -

On 14 March 2014, FII Bought INR 982.19 crs and DII Sold INR 866.42 crs

A bounce came on Friday from 6432 which was still higher than 6420. It has closed above 6500 levels again. So, it was second weekly close above 6500 levels in a row. There is no great technical threat as long as it stays above 6400-6420 support zones. Take a note that 50 DMA for NIFTY is running at 6216 levels which is way too far from here.

We may see trading near this range but scope of fall will always there to go near to 50 DMA. Nifty and Sensex has history of running near 50 DMA only. I feel that 6265 will offer good resistance on higher side. Above which, it can try to come near 6620-6625 levels but high will not be stable one. Some key momentum indicators are tiring now.

I say, have a look at 6480 for the day. If it breaks 6480 then it will invite some unwinding of longs. On higher side, you can expect intermediate trading resistance at 6535 and 6565 levels. Banking index will be weaker than Nifty or may have lesser strength than blue chip index. Stock specific movements are expected.

NIKKEI is trading at 14480 right now. I will not surprise if it close in negative. It can break 14000 levels this week or next week and then we will see a real melt down. Note that below 14000, NIKKEI will become first index which can signal of something ‘very bad’. Read S&P 500 (US) analysis too, to conclude, how time is shaping for global indices.

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Strategy for Nifty March future – Opening is going to be stable to positive. It may open even above 6550 but scope for further trading rise is going to be very limited. Technical charts are suggesting that above 6262 it can hit levels of 6600 levels or nearer. Expect some weakness if it can settle below 6520 levels. Picture will be clearer only in second half of trading. Keep your eye on India VIX too.

S&P 500 (USA) – S&P 500 bounced in its own fashion from a nearer support of 1828 which was 50 Days moving average. It closed above 1854 again and that raised a possible new all-time high again. When I am saying all-time high, have a look on MACD. Will it able to surpass with divergence again? March is 60^th month of this Bull Run which has started from March 2009. It has happened in 1982 to 1987 also but it ended with brutal sell off. So, if it is so close to make a history then it is better to wait for 61th month. I have not said this from past few months as I was also bullish time to time. I am repeating that ‘mother trend’ has been violated due to fed interference. So far, daily chart has no threat for long but be cautious.