13 March 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty saved 6480 thrice in past three days. We may see sell off from high either by today or max by tomorrow. Distribution may result fall from high.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 March 2014: -

On 12 March 2014, FII Bought INR 864.35 crs and DII Sold INR 821.97 crs

January month IIP data came at 0.10% and February month CPI came at 8.10%. All these data are almost better than market estimate. There is nothing in this data that can make us worry and not even the reasons for cheers. Clearly, I can say that on the basis of this data I am not expecting any rate cut. A euphoric market may expect on the base on optimism.

In past three trading sessions it came near to 6480 but saved every time. This is a decisive support. We cannot see trend in intraday trading as long as it hold above 6480. It can just able to make bounce from near to 6480 which it has done many times in past three days.

We saw stock and sector specific weakness in between. If we saw buying in banking stocks then equally we saw selling in metal stocks. Even at all-time high we fail to see momentum in each sector. It is true that rate sensitive stocks has seen good rise in past few days but that can tired sooner now.

India VIX is still running above 17 if not crossing 18. This kind of VIX is itself not justifying Nifty levels. I can quote that if VIX crosses 18 anytime then we can see some reasons for sharp sell-off. It can come sooner or later.

So study remains same, range for the day should be 6565 to 6480. Will we get decisive move? NIKKEI is trading at 15895. I expect that closing will go in deep down in red. Very likely target is also falling in the range of 15200-15000 levels.

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Strategy for Nifty March future – We may get flat opening. It is saving 6510 levels from past three days and hence 6510 will become support. On higher side 6595 is acting as resistance. It is distributing at higher end but not giving any sign of meaningful pullback yet. It may not come unless it settles below 6510. I still believe that this market should fall from higher levels. We may be very close to a short to medium term top. Let us see what comes today.

S&P 500 (USA) – It was quoted yesterday that if it does not break 1850 then also it will come close to 1850. We saw a low at 1854 and then a bounce. How long can this continue? As long as it is above 1850 on closing basis we can hope for few more fresh life time’s high. I have a feeling that S&P will swing in the range of 1884 to 1850 in few more days. Do not try to find trend in this range as it can irritate you. Logically, 1884 is a resistance but crossover can give levels above 1900 too. Is S&P preparing for 2000 too? We have better answer on DJIA chart which is showing that16600 may not pass so easily and fall will hit before that only.