21 February 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: No bounce can save at higher levels. We may have another day when we will see closing near day’s low. Ley support for Nifty is at 6075 and key resistance is 6145 to 6160.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely. 

For 21 February 2014: -

On 20 February 2014, FII Bought INR 206.46 crs and DII Sold INR 600.71 crs

It was choppy session throughout the day except last hour crack. Note that now a day most of the time market got sold in last hour. This is itself showing a bad market mid set for bulls. Yesterday’s low was near 20 DMA support. I can say that bounce in global market is saving Indian market so far. Magnitude of bounce should be better than what it actually came.

S&P 500 came at 1847 which is near to all time high after hitting 1737. On other hand Nifty bounced only near 6156 which is 4-5% away from its life time high. This might not look the fair comparison but true in broader sense.

What I mean to say is that imagine the day when US market will actually go under correction which is due from longer than expected time. Now, we have a possibility of that coming sooner. I still believe that a hard correction will come in US market anytime now. It does not matter if it come from 1850 or from 1888 but it will come.  

For today’s trading, we will see some higher opening due to strong rebound in US market last night. Impact will be lesser than what it looks. Nifty will find 6130 as tougher resistance to cross. If it opens near 6130 then immediate resistance will be at 6160. I will surprise to see another day where market close near day’s low. Use this level to exit your all long.

After a very long time, I am saying to exit from your entire delivery holding. Above comment does not have much sense if market already starts slipping? Remember, we are going for derivative expiry sooner now.

Please visit our ‘intraday updates’ to get further updates or to take good advantage join paid services.

Strategy for Nifty February future – We will get two stiff resistances to deal, one is at 6140 and next is at 6167. Even 1% relative rebound for US market has failed to impress SGX Nifty which is just 20 points higher. I still say that Nifty may be very close for wash out now. Technical support is on dot at 6100. If it breaks then we can expect more and more panic. Even global support may not help at this point. Let us see. My above comments are applicable for all emerging market.

S&P 500 (USA) – It has bounced again from lower levels and from key support of 1824. I should not wonder as US has strongest bulls and they cannot give up so easily. I still believe for the possibility of hard sell off coming as long as it is below 1850-1854 levels. Perhaps after more than a year bulls looks tired and their efforts may got sold near 1850. Let us see where we will get the weekly closing now. I still say, press stop loss at 1854 and go short.

Regards,             

Praveen Kumar