31 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It can challenge 7841 as new all-time high again today. Technical support will be at 7750 levels. Be cautious at higher levels as unexpected sell off may hit at high.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 31 July 2014: -

On 30 July 2014, FII Sold INR 381.66 crs and DII Bought INR 515.65 crs

It has respected every technical support and violated all technical resistance for July month. It has respected June month high which was at 7700 levels. Most important is that it closed with very small gain from low and closed with short covering. All happened just a day before derivative expiry. Normally, short covering based rise may try to sustain. If this is the case then we have another possibility of new all-time today.  

Top may be unstable again and it may face selling at high point. If short covering again hit then the point of selling to emerge can be as high as 7900 levels. I can easily say that any stock market is unpredictable near to its derivative expiry and Indian market is no more different from others.

We saw some good action in selected mid cap and small cap stocks too. FII has sold in cash market after long time. This is a negative cue for today’s trade that cash figures were negative even after short covering. This is prime reason that I am saying for selling from a high point but I have no idea about that high point. Can it be 7840?

For today’s session, we may get some stable to silent opening. Technical support will be at 7770 to 7750 levels. I still believe that it may try to move towards 7840 to make some decision. One thing is for sure, above 7843, it will shoot up to 7900 levels or a move towards this.

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Strategy for Nifty August future – Nifty August future is giving a hint for opening at 7820 levels which is still good opening at least after yesterday’s short covering. As long as it is above 7800-7990, you can expect a move towards7870 to 7890 levels. Take a strong note – it derivative expiry and it may not be easy to deal. Most time, I avoid such days for trade. Be cautious at higher levels.

S&P 500 (USA) – It moved here and there and closed flat so study remains same for the day. It is not moving anywhere since June 24^th 2014. It stuck in the same range. Once again it came below 1970 and it may head towards 1956 to 1950. I will convince only at decisive break below 1950 to say for confident short. So far, topping formation is giving short at tops near 198X and 199X but those are mild short signal. Let us see what can come now.  

30 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Just a day away from derivative expiry of July month series. Technical support = 7720-7700. Resistance at 7800 < 7842. Higher levels demands caution.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 30 July 2014: -

On 28 July 2014, FII Bought INR 75.04 crs and DII Bought INR 55.91 crs

Even on Monday’s trading session we saw a high at 7800 and then a fall of almost 78 points before closing just below 7750 levels. We have derivative expiry tomorrow. It may just add further volatility. I had a view in the beginning of this week that a short term top will come by this month only.

Nifty has 20 DMA at 7675 levels which my act as crucial support. On higher side it may face stiff resistance at 7800 levels. Suppose if it stand above 7800 then it will attract bulls again. Here is a caution, derivative expiry change any technical levels. I am not very keen on shorting only although it is my view only.

Mid cap and small cap indices are under performing and this may be major concern before expiry. Even if blue-chip indices head higher it will not change the broader views. We may be running here and there near top. Some forced short covering may go in favour of bulls before expiry as system may have shorts which like to cover their position if closing goes near all-time high.

For today’s session, we may get some stable to positive opening. A move is possible towards 7800 levels again with a view for buy in dip but protect those with stop below 7720. On higher side, even top will attract selling and sell point can emerge near 7800-7810 levels. It can never east to trade when such views emerge for trades.

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Strategy for Nifty August future – Nifty August future is giving a hint for opening at 7800 levels which may say that a gap up can favour bulls. If this happens then any small dip will be treated as opportunity to buy only with stop as 7770. Meaningful and enjoying trades will come only if it breaks 7770. Will it come? Let us see.

S&P 500 (USA) – It is not moving anywhere since June 24^th 2014. It stuck in the same range. Once again it came below 1970 and it may head towards 1956 to 1950. I will convince only at decisive break below 1950 to say for confident short. So far, topping formation is giving short at tops near 198X and 199X but those are mild short signal. Let us see what can come now.  

28 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: For derivative expiry week - most important support = 7750!!! If it breaks 7750 then we can see quick tip towards 7675 to 7660 levels. 7841 will act as stiff resistance now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 28 July 2014: -

On 25 July 2014, FII Bought INR 125.51 crs and DII Sold INR 210.02 crs

For Friday’s trading session, I have quoted for resistance at 7860 (hitting this level was not a compulsion) and support at 7750 levels. It has followed the road map and hit a high 7841 and then slipped to hit a low of 7749 before closing at 7790 levels. Major disappointment is that Elliott wave pattern is now looking for consolidating move on daily chart rather than trending chart as shown in the figure given. 

When Nifty hit a fresh all-time high then this kind of sell off was not expected in follow up session. As it came so one has to be very cautious for this week as its derivative expiry week with one holiday tomorrow. Elliott wave pattern is giving short term support at 7393 levels which is too far right now. Extremely short term support is also at 7660 levels. Only pleasant thing is that it has trading support at 7750 which was tested Friday and closed with a bounce. Current situation is not broadly in favour bulls. In fact, to a big extent it may favour bears only.

If 7841 is turning as a top then we may expect this expiry near or below 7660 levels. Take a note that even US goes under sell off. Major concern of this sell off is that it came after mid cap under performance and it happened everywhere in the world. Crucial 20 DMA support for Nifty is at 7675 levels. Things are giving room of 100-150 points dip anytime now.

For today’s session, opening may be nervous and if it sustain below 7810 then expect another move towards 7750 levels. Break below 7750 will invite few quick unwinding. Only above 7810 one can expect some stability in market.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future is giving a hint for flat opening. Immediate trading resistance is the zone of 7810 to 7825 levels. 7750 will act as crucial trading support. I still believe that one can trade short on rise. Well, first half may act as choppy move but decisive movement may come in second half only. Keep an eye on 7750, if it breaks then it can see quick dip.

S&P 500 (USA) – It’s a dip which came immediately after new all-time high just like our market. Technical charts are suggesting for a move towards 1950 again. Once it closes below 1950 then we can say that top has confirmed. Even for this week I will expect test of 1956 -1950 levels.  I suggest for short on any pullback towards 198X, 199X and 200X. 

25 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Once goes above 7809, it may hint for a move towards 7860 but this is not a compulsion. Mid cap, small cap and 33 Nifty stocks has underperformed in recent rise. Most important support = 7750!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 July 2014: -

On 24 July 2014, FII Bought INR 282.44 crs and DII Sold INR 290.35 crs

Nifty has broken 7809 marks and goes with support of charting formation. Once it was above 7660, it was already hinting for 7860 as next move although it was against Elliott wave move. From past 7808 to this time at 7808+ almost 33 Nifty stocks has underperformed the move. Mid cap and small cap stocks are already under performing. Hence, bulls are also not feeling like party time.

This is happening almost everywhere in the world. What I mean to say is that everywhere in the world mid cap stocks has underperformed in past one month. Take a note that new all-time high is not a guarantee of rise. Charting target is still at 7860 but I am sceptical towards trades. This rise is coming from 7422 and stretched by 400 points.

I suggest starting the day in neutral mode. Technically it is still a buy as long as it is above 7809 levels. Crucial trading support for short term move will be at 7770 to 7750. Momentum indicators are not justifying the rise and hence we may be near to top either now or very soon.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future is giving a hint for opening at 7830 levels which must be flat. As long as it is above 7800, it can extend rise near to 7860 and then we may see a top formation. If it goes below 7800 sooner then we may say that top may go for misguide or pullback? I still say, do not buy pullback as one pullback will come to trap bulls too. Most protecting level to save this up trend is 7750.

S&P 500 (USA) – These are soft trading days with small magnitude of rise. It hit another new all-time high at 1991. It is still looking for a move towards psychological 2000 marks. As far as it is above 1950, it will just head higher. There are no great technical levels to explain. Only one formation can have some meaning from current levels and that level is 1950. Small trading reversal may appear below 1978. So far, it looks up for 2000 marks. 

24 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Bearish hanging man pattern has formed but crucial technical support will be at 7750 levels. Will it break 7809 as it is so close to this level? Be cautious @ 7809!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 24 July 2014: -

On 23 July 2014, FII Bought INR 652.40 crs and DII Sold INR 292.09 crs

Yesterday I said that no day can be better to break 7809 as all-time high. It hit 7809 as dot and slipped. Afterward it slipped hit 7752 as low before closing with a ‘hanging man bearish’ pattern. It can never be good to see this kind of top. It would have been in favour of bulls if we would have seen close above 7809 levels.

The most crucial trading support will emerge at 7750 levels for today’s trading session. It does not matter where nifty is going to start. It will be important where we close. Candle patterns are in favour of bears. Decline in volume over past few days also goes in favour of a possible top. Well, there is one thing which goes in favour of bulls and this is momentum. As long as momentum favours we cannot see price correction. It has happened many times in US market over past few years.

So, I believe that it will be better to take a cue from technical support and resistance. For today’s session 7809 is a resistance and 7750 is a support. Break of any of these two levels will give a move in that favour. Elliott wave is already saying for a possible top but surprisingly, the wave retraced by 100%. Means from 7422 to 7808 is too big to define.

Let us see. Keep your figure cross. Be careful near 7800-7809 levels.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future is giving a hint for opening at 7770 to 7780 levels. This is supporting cues in favour of bearish ‘hanging man pattern’. I still suggest that break below 7740 will guide for a decisive slip now. As long as it is above 7740 it will open scope for rebound from lower levels.  

S&P 500 (USA) – Once again, US gave irritating rise with another new all-time high on S&P 500. Technical charts are suggesting for 2000 as potential target and why only 2000, it can hit as high as 2025. Time based consolidation can be treated as correction but this is time correction, not a price correction. I just want to see reaction near 2000 psychological levels. 

23 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: No day can be better than today to break 7809 as all-time high. Will it make? If yes, then it can hit multiple higher levels by expiry day next week. It may challenge 8000 too !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 July 2014: -

On 22 July 2014, FII Bought INR 412.03 crs and DII Bought INR 59.23 crs

I have already said that wave theory failed to give top. Well, I need to make a fresh marking. We should be in corrective wave ‘b’ of subwave a-b-c but it looks like a progressive wave. I always give important to price and price chart which is still moving higher. I cannot ignore momentum technical indicators but right now market may head towards 7800-7860 levels backed well by reverse H&S pattern on hourly chart.

At some point, top will emerge but confirmation of such top formation will come only if we close below 7660 levels on daily chart. This condition looks tougher after yesterday’s gain. I can say that it’s not easy to sail against wave theory indication. I am assuming for almost 100% retrenchment of fall and so we may see 7800-7808 levels.

I still quote this week as most crucial one. Out of five days of a week, today is going to be most crucial trading session. All global cues are strong to good. Nifty has already build momentum yesterday in closing hour. So, if it has to cross 7808 levels then nothing can be better than today. Trading technical support will be at 7730 and then at 7700.

Let us see. Keep your figure cross. Be careful near 7800-7809 levels.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will open higher near 7800 levels. Higher opening demands caution but it looks like that the day will go in favour of bulls again. If that’s the case then we may see levels of 7830-7850 also. If this is  a breakout with real buying then 8000 can be visited by expiry day. Strong technical support will be at 7750 and 7720 levels.

S&P 500 (USA) – It hits again 1985 levels. The zone of 1950 to 1985 is just a zone of oscillation. Now, it’s more than a month that S&P is running here and there. Technical charts are saying different than wave theory, just like Indian market. If I overlap few chart study having same behaviour then it seems that we will get a break above 1985. I make a change in my view. If it closes above 1985 then it can easily move to hit 2025 levels. Although, it looks difficult but its market choice. Note that we still have to close above 1985 levels on dot. We have just few days left and so I believe that these last few days will be furious to trade. 

22 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 7725 may act as stiff resistance and good trading support will emerge at 7660 to 7650 levels. Unless it closes below 7660-7650 we cannot say for the end of wave ‘b’.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 July 2014: -

On 21 July 2014, FII Bought INR 161.17 crs and DII Sold INR 181.16 crs

Nifty traditionally took a pause near another resistance. Only difference is that this time it was 7725. I can still say that conviction is that we may see some dull trades near resistances now. Elliott wave is giving me a sense of resistance at 7725 and it needs a close below 7660 for confirmation. It is saying that we are almost near to end of wave ‘b’.

We should less care about those indicators or theory which market is not following. Last its price which pays. Right now, Elliott wave is giving resistance after resistance and market is crossing all. Charting pattern shows that lots of steam still left in the market.

Once again, be cautious at higher levels. For today’s session, one can expect trading support at 7650 and a trend reversal support will be at 7590 levels. It may open higher by 25-30 points so this gap will play crucial role. It is not going to be simple trade as more complex technical behaviour will emerge sooner.  Complex trading behaviour invites more impulsive moves.

Take a note that market may take moves only in second half now. Usually, first half remains dull. It does not matter why this happening is. Unless it closes below 7660, we may not have conviction for correction call.

Well, charting has totally different picture. Elliott wave us suggesting that top should come while charting pattern is suggesting for a quick fire 200 points of rise. Yes, it means we may visit 7800-7860 levels. Hence, I am marking this week as most crucial one.

Week will end either at 7400 or at 7860. I can able to present clearer picture with the progression of week.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will open higher near 7710. This should again act as resistance.  7720-7730 will act as immediate stiff resistance. In the down side it will get support at 7670-7660 levels. Shall we trade in the zone of 7660 to 7730? My answer may not be affirmative. Let us see what can come near Nifty spot resistance of 7725.

S&P 500 (USA) – It closed in red. US indices are moving like a pendulum in the zone of 1950 to 1985 ranges. It slips from high and rising from low of the range. So far, it is not giving any clear signal. I am anticipating a top formation but threshold support of 1950 has not broken yet. It is little irritating now. I still believe that July month top may emerge as a top and a sell off will hit. Nothing great to add for the day. 

21 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: If Elliott wave is giving sense of then then with equal strength charting is saying for further strong rise. Week will end either at 7860 or at 7400. What will come?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 21 July 2014: -

On 18 July 2014, FII Bought INR 574.47 crs and DII Sold INR 283.17 crs

Nifty end up at 7660+ levels which were supposed to be a levels for top to emerge. I have suggested for crucial threshold of 7590 to say for weakness but it has saved successfully. Now, above 7660, it may try to advance towards 7700 to 7725 levels.

Very early this month, I have said that a top formation may come by July month. So far, I still expect same. If this bounce has so much strength then it will probably end with double top. Elliott wave ‘b’ can emerge sooner this week. It has surpassed 7570 then 7660 also. Picture changed when short covering came to break 7570 on higher side.

Once again, be cautious at higher levels. For today’s session, one can expect trading support at 7650 and a trend reversal support will be at 7590 levels. It may open higher by 25-30 points so this gap will play crucial role. It is not going to be simple trade as more complex technical behaviour will emerge sooner.  

Well, charting has totally different picture. Elliott wave us suggesting that top should come while charting pattern is suggesting for a quick fire 200 points of rise. Yes, it means we may visit 7800-7860 levels. Hence, I am marking this week as most crucial one.

Week will end either at 7400 or at 7860. I can able to present clearer picture with the progression of week.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will open higher near 7690. This should be the level above Friday’s high. If this happens then we may have hardly anything left to deal on higher side as it will open on resistance. Well, as long as it is above 7680 it will try to take a approach towards 7725-7730 levels. I opt to buy a dip with smaller stop loss.

S&P 500 (USA) – Its played with 1950 support again on last trading day of the week and closed with mammoth bounce. It is again in the striking distance of 1985 but still it will not easy to cross. In reality week ended at the point where it had begun. So, it is another fresh week but study remains same. A top need to emerge in the zone of 198X,199X or max by 2000.  

18 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: If upcoming GAP down does not fill up then we are probably done with recovery. 7656 will remain a top for some time and a move towards 7400 will begin again.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 July 2014: -

On 17 July 2014, FII Bought INR 1912.42 crs and DII Sold INR 1316.02 crs

It was said for yesterday that we may see top near to 7760 levels and this may end up as point ‘b’ on Elliott wave chart. So, recovery has done. After that we saw bloodbath on Wall Street which was expected in past few days. It slipped over a percent. I have not added short on Indian market but definitely we added short on S&P Future which had given a sell yesterday before opening.

Above cash buy by FII and cash sell of DII shows that we saw a tug of war between bulls and bears. I was expected a top to emerge as 7660 but this is still my expectation. We have not shown anything on Indian chart yet to say for top. Now, we may see gap down in Indian market due to US hangover. If this gap down maintains till close and we slide further then it will be named as bear gap down. Now, if this happens then I would say, yes, it has top at 7656. Then, it will start a slide again towards 7400 levels.

Technical support will be in the zone of 7600 to 7570 now. Wave theory is giving a hint for brutal top but this will see confirmation only by today’s closing. Take a note that it has not given confirmation yet.

For today’s session, I suggest to follow intraday analysis. 7660 is a tougher resistance to cross. Bear threshold will be at 7590 levels. If it breaks sustain below 7590 then we will head for panic sell off.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will open down as indicated by SGX Nifty. Consider 7620-7600 as decisive support and there is no scope of weakness as long as it is above 7600 levels. What I want is – a break below 7600 and this gap down must sustain then only we can name as top. Let us wait for opening.

S&P 500 (USA) – So, after a long waiting it came in just a single day but it has yet to break below 1950. I feel that bears got their opening. That who was waiting with shorts has shown patience. Once, it breaks below 1950 then we will see a slide towards 1915-1900 levels. Well, I am concluding US market for long term top if we see levels near 1900 levels. Remember, it is heading towards 1950 as of now. So, we need more confirmation to conclude for long term top. 

17 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Bounce to continue as long as it is above 7600 levels. Next likely target can emerge at 7660. One resistance will emerge as top. Which one will be that? 7660 or 7725. So far, no indication of top yet.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17 July 2014: -

On 16 July 2014, FII Bought INR 621.68 crs and DII Sold INR 48.48 crs

As long it is on positive close, it cannot easy to say which point will be ‘b’ on Elliott wave chart. Two days in a row it closed near to the day’s high point. It was little unexpected for me that Nifty crossed 7600+ levels in short covering. Remember, there is a difference between buying and short covering. If 7600+ were supposed to come then it should come by buying but it came by short covering.

Well, if it is short covering then it goes great in favour of bulls. Technical charts are suggesting that we may see profit taking at higher levels near 7660. I am taking a caution; if it trades near 7660 then it may cross to head towards 7725 levels. Why I am saying this is – because even yesterday trades near 7560 goes in favour of bulls. I was not short but I missed good opportunity to be long.

Technical support will be in the zone of 7600 to 7570 now. Wave theory is giving a hint for brutal top and hence I prefer to be little reserve and conservative to be aggressive.

For today’s session, I suggest to follow intraday analysis. 7660 is still seems to be under reach. As long as it is above 7570-7600 levels, it will main a direction up. Near to 7630 goes in favour of bulls and below 7590 will favour bears.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will on flat note. Consider 7620 as decisive support and there is no scope of weakness as long as it is above 7620 levels. If another round of short covering comes then it can easily hit 7700 levels. I will prefer to watch for first 60 to 120 minutes. We may be close to be done with this recovery.

S&P 500 (USA) – Once again, S&P took a rise towards 1985 levels but never crosses to make a new all-time high again. Technical charts are still suggesting for resistance at 1985 but sign of shorting is still not giving good conviction. Well, near to 1985 we should prefer to watch but I feel that time for dip is about to come. Most global indices are on decisive resistance levels. Few months back, I have already said that second half of the year may go under profit taking. Most, probably, all major top will come in the months of July itself. 

16 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Bounce to continue if it sustain above 7530 and expected target to come at 7570 to 7600. Technical support will be at 7500 and 7460 levels. Fall expected from resistance.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 16 July 2014: -

On 15 July 2014, FII Sold INR 3.40 crs and DII Bought INR 471.78 crs

 On Elliott wave chart, I was in search to draw a point ‘b’ which should be on upward side. We got first positive close after five days of fall. So far, close came in expect line near 7530 but it was more shocking during trading hours. It took sharp rebound from its intraday low. At one time low was 7459.

If I consider the wave structure from its preceding down wave ‘a’ then we has 38% retracement coming at 7570. So, for today’s session if trades sustain above 7530 then we are likely to head in the range of 7570 to 7600. I can say that fall will hit from higher levels to form the next down wave ‘c’. So, we should be cautious near resistance.

Technical support will be at 7500 > 7460 levels. Do take a note that we cannot ignore the development of negative divergence on NIFTY daily chart. This bounce is a result of hourly oversold zone. If sell off comes from high again then we may see a possibility of Nifty heading towards 7200-7300 levels. We may get many answers by today’s session.

For today’s session, I have a technical strategy to trade long as long as it holds above 7530 but I like to ignore this option. I will rather prefer to trade short from high plus weakness which may come in second half.

My projected timing for short trade is = 12:20 pm to 02:00 pm. Trades may not soft till 11:00 am, it means it may stay positive till 11 am at least. This time study is irrespective of technical levels. Do read my intraday updates to know more technical levels to act or better opt our subscription.

Technical resistance = 7570 < 7600

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will open strong to positive start. As long as it is above 7550, it may try to take a move towards 7570-7600 but this is not a very compulsive condition. Still, it has scope to trade soft long in the morning minutes. Even if dip has to come then it will come in second half. Today’s closing will be decisive to mark point ‘b’ on Elliott wave chart.

S&P 500 (USA) – It was interesting trade yesterday night. It hit a high at 1982.50 and then slipped to hit 1965 before closing at 1973. Clearly, bears took charge near the resistance of 1985. I can sider this as the beginning of sell off. We need to know that 1950 is still a stiff support and bulls will be in race as long as it is above 1950. So, first question is – Will it break 1950 this time? May be yes. Opt shorting the range of 197X to 198X. 

15 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A bounce to come from oversold and support near 7400 to mark point ‘b’ on Elliott wave chart. Possible top and resistance = 7500 or 7530 !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 15 July 2014: -

On 14 July 2014, FII Sold INR 558.25 crs and DII Sold INR 331.52 crs

Nifty has closed just above 7450 with a low at 7422 levels. I have already said that 7400 will offer good trading support. Nifty is falling from past five trading sessions in a row and it slipped from 7808 to 7422 levels. So, it goes in over sold zone on hourly chart.

I still say that fall has not done but a bounce is coming. Traders can read behaviour of RSI on hourly chart. From over sold zone and near to 7400 support, if bounce comes then it should welcome. Question is – is this bounce good to buy? Simple answer is that do not try to buy top as those may come sooner than expected.

I have added few long from yesterday’s low and I will opt to offload sooner with gain. Do not get tempted with volatility and rise in volatility. What I feel is that this bounce will be over in the zone of 7500 to 7530. It will be hard to move above 7530 levels sooner. On Elliott wave chart, I am in search to draw a point ‘b’ which should be on upward side. Will I get it today? Chances are high. Elliott wave learner must know that to mark point ‘b’ we at least need a positive close.

I am repeating that Nifty can drag towards 7200 once this bounce is over. Do not opt to buy top. I will try to work with possible top for intraday.

For today’s session, I have a strategy to hold my long till 7500+ levels. If I get upper end of 7500 to 7530, I will off load.

Technical resistance = 7500 < 7530

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will open on stronger note above 7510. If it sustain above 7510 then we should see immediate 30-50 point’s jump. It is a technical buy if it can sustain above 7510. So, keep an eye on challenging levels of 7510. We may have some short covering rise. I still warn that selling may hit at higher levels so be cautious if you are trying to deal rapidly.

S&P 500 (USA) – I said that I like to add short on bounce but bounce must give me toppy formation. Where is the sense of toppy formation if S&P closes near day’s high from past few days? In my view, we are coming close to those levels. In clear words, S&P will find it hard to break 1985 from here onwards. Well, I have already quoted few days back that I like to see double top formation with second top lower than first one. Here we are, so bounce is almost done and a hard sells off coming. 

14 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Continuation of sell off will give us targets of 7200 with support at 7118 by this week. From 7460, use sell-on-rise strategy only for first half of this week.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 July 2014: -

On 11 July 2014, FII Sold INR 723.48 crs and DII Sold INR 44.93 crs

We are in a new week and perhaps you are away that Indian market has closed with biggest weekly loss of past many months. So far, 7808 looks to me as a short term top. Many mid cap and small cap stocks took massive rally in post-election days and those were the hint for top coming sooner. Can we say that we are in big trouble sooner? Not really, so far it is just a short term correction.

In clear language as long as NIFTY is closing above 7118, nothing is there to worry about. 7118 is still 350 points away. Right now, we need to deal with a support turn resistance at 7470 levels. As long as Nifty is staying below 7470, it is opening room to hint levels of 7400 to 7390.

Possible intraday support will be only at 7390 to 7400 levels. I have already said that based on Elliott wave theory we are still living with a possibility of a move towards 7400 levels sooner or later. It was said before the correction begun from 7808.

Real and genuine question is to talk about the possibility of hitting 7200 to 7118 levels. Very clearly, if this has to hit then we may see this levels by this week only. Hence, it is most crucial week to trade.

For today’s session, I have a strategy to short index on bounce as bounce is going to fail at higher levels. It would be better if we get some levels near 7470. If not then, below 7470, it is just a sell. Do you that that hourly charts make a primary trend on down side in post budget speech and Friday’s sell off were just a continuation of that part.

Technical resistance = 7479 < 7525

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will open on nervous note will all possibility of hitting lower. I can say it very frankly that Nifty can skid lower this week and this may be another bad week after past bad one. Technical charts are suggesting to short NIFTY on any bounce from 7500 to 7510. Prepare to see levels of 7430-7400 sooner.

S&P 500 (USA) – It took another intraday bounce form support area of 195X and closed just near to 1970 levels. This leaves bulls with some hope but this will end sooner. S&P chart is confirming that break of 1950 is very much possible and it will head lower this week towards the levels of 1925 to 1910. So far, it is a silence near all-time high.  It is important to note that it is just near a percent away from all-time high point. I like to add short on bounce but bounce must give me toppy formation. 

11 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Now, focus will go on quarterly earnings. Nifty will face stiff resistance at 7605 levels while support will come only at 7480 levels. Elliott wave Primary trend = Down!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 11 July 2014: -

On 10 July 2014, FII Bought INR 161.55 crs and DII Sold INR 4.89 crs

We make mammoth winning trades on Nifty yesterday with prediction of bounce and bloodbath as well.  Fine, that’s the history now. I have a simple message after going through budget details. NDA need to remember that they got a mandate to prove themselves different from UPA. They are not here to even compare themselves from UPA. They are here to deliver promises. It’s just note make a sense to give plan for 10 years and 20 years in a philosophical ways. My biggest worry towards this budget is excessive expenditure and no hint about the source of funds. Please do not tell me that FDI can give any money.

Well, hope is hope and here hope means rally in stock market. We can still hope that Prime minister and finance minister may have some magic in implementing their plans. If they do then we make be saved. If not then prepare for disaster. Now, Indian stock market will enter in earning season and market will focus on those. Infosys will kick start the season.

I need to revise few technical supports. These are – 7479 > 7399 > 7275.

Based on Elliott wave theory we are still living with a possibility of a move towards 7400 levels sooner or later. Bounce will get resistance at 7605 for intraday. Are we really going to get any sustaining bounce? I doubt after yesterday’s sell off in post 2 pm hours.

For today’s session, I have a strategy to short weak stocks near 7600 resistance on Nifty, if comes as we may get better risk reward ratio. Take a note that if Nifty able to stand above 7605 levels then I will go off to my short. I do not have big short as after 200 points quick dip, I took most of my shorts.

I talked about primary trend yesterday. Unfortunately, it looks down now. This is not new after predicting 7800-7840 range for short term top. I have another simple warning for traders and investors do not invest money for medium and long term. Go and sit in cash. If you do not listen this then chances are very high that you will burn your fingers.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will still have a threshold at 7570. Bulls are on back seat now. Nifty future may start near 7570 levels but it will face resistance on every step. In down side, it can easily retrace towards yesterday’s low. It’s alarming. For intraday trade, use some bounce to short and plan to short near 7600 as this will give better risk reward ratio. It is advisable to cross check my intraday updates before executing trades or better be a subscriber to get clear call.

S&P 500 (USA) – I was almost right for a bounce towards 1970 and then fall again. We saw a bottom at 1952 and then S&P got intraday bounce. Remember, US has strongest bulls of the world and they will not give up easily. The bounce from 1952 to 1969 is an indication that bulls are still in the race. In view, bulls are close to lose their race this time. As I said earlier, I am repeating. Short the rise, anything above 197X-198X-199X.     

10 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: NIFTY highlight prediction – a swing of 4% may come. Either a fall of 4% from top or a recovery of 4% from bottom. Let a primary trend establish to trade.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 10 July 2014: -

On 09 July 2014, FII Bought INR 645.19 crs and DII Sold INR 265.19 crs

We are on budget day. This date is as important as 16^th May 2014. This is first test of reality of hope for Modi government. Market wants to measure their capacity over the hopes that it has built in past more than six months. We saw a volatile session yesterday but there were many mid cap stocks which have slipped substantially.

I am simplifying market expectation from budget. One line – What budget can give to reduce fiscal deficit? If budget gives hope to stock market then it will take away hopes from voters. Hence, it is going to be tough task. Whom can finance minister is going to give priority. Infra and reality stocks are nervous before budget.

It’s a mess on chart as you saw this but note all support -

7520>7442>7393>7342>7215

We can see intraday bottom out of any one of these supports. Threshold support for fall will be at 7550. If it breaks below 7550 then it will only favour bears. On Higher side it needs to stand well above 7650 to convince bulls. So we have full 100 points range to speculate. I have no forward position to trade.

For today’s session, opening should be on nervous but on higher side only. Do not trade first hour as market will enter in action mode only after budget speech starts. I have few points to even support bulls. Well, a corrective small up wave should come from low against sharp fall. I predict for 4% swing in post budget sessions. Remember, this 4% can be either fall of 4% from top or recovery of 4% from bottom.

So, let a primary trend establish. Adventure is definitely not required at this time.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future should start near 7630. Do not short until it breaks 7570. Do not attempt to short a market which goes in recovery mode. It is strongly advisable to wait for a primary intraday trend to develop which can establish after budget speech only. Do not even make a mind frame that this market can crash only.

S&P 500 (USA) – I had different thought about pullback. In my view it should not move above 1970 but it moved. It is still fine so far as I want to short this pullback. It is still fine if I get something in the range of 1985. Well, let it go. This bounce is coming to form a double top pattern with second top lower than the first one. I like to wait to see today’s action too for adding short.    

09 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: So, we exactly got the short term top in the range of 7800-7840. Hope you must have enjoyed the fall. This sell off may have target at 7400 but mini pullback bound to come. Use those for short!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 09 July 2014: -

On 08 July 2014, FII Bought INR 422.72 crs and DII Sold INR 399.56 crs

So, market welcome in its own style to the reality test of Modi Sarkar on Rail budget. Sensex tank over 500 points. I always have a question when anyone talks about FDI. What you think foreigner will come to invest in your countries for charity? No, never. They invest only if they see the scope and first need is to make our country suitable for FDI. How much FDI we got in UPA period? I feel sorry but bitter truth is that it will not easy to manage money to fulfil the dreams of rail budget. Perhaps, market punishes rail budget due to same reason.

Well, now second litmus test will come tomorrow when Modi government will present its Union Budget. It is very obvious that it may be better than Dr. ManMohan singh government but will it able to meet with the dream which market saw from past more than six months. Buckle your seat belt and be ready for roller coaster ride in market tomorrow.

I always says that market make a primary direction to give you a hint for the outcome of coming event. Unfortunately, charts are not in favour of bulls before budget. I have forecasted for a short term top in the range of 7800 to 7840 and we got a high yesterday at 7808 then a free fall, a blood bath and a panic sell off hit the market.

For today’s trading, technical support will stand at 7590. We may have a mini pull back but we are now far from being comfortable to trade long. This market is opening a big scope for slide. Elliott wave target may be at 7400 ranges. I am expecting a silent and nervous trading today and I prefer to ignore this kind of day for trades.

We have successfully forecasted for a short term top in the range of 7840 to 7800 levels. Many have asked me for the validity period of this top. Well, it can be valid at least for tomorrow also. Charts are saying that we may not see 7800 for unbelievable duration. Either it can break by tomorrow or not sooner?

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will get some silent to nervous opening. I hold my shorts which I took at 7800 levels. Well, I will not prefer to add short at lower levels. I will prefer to judge the weakness on pullback. If pullback comes and gives me some signal for weakness then only I will add fresh short. What that level can be? Fine, that can be 7670!!!

S&P 500 (USA) – It goes great as the road map suggested. We got second day sell off and close near 1960. It is almost confirming that we are on short term top. Take a note that this short term top may become long term top too. Technical charts are now confirming for the move towards 1925 levels. I just like to use pull back and mini pull back to short. In my view one mini pull back is coming today which will fail before 1970.   

08 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It may attempt to break 7800 again. If it breaks and sustain then we will see 7840 as next possibility. Failure at 7800 will make it dull again.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 08 July 2014: -

On 07 July 2014, FII Bought INR 198.57 crs and DII Sold INR 85.22 crs

It was dull day even after crucial crossover of 7761. For most part of the session it was above 7761 and still unable to hit at 7800. I still believe that it will take that attempt today. Suppose if it hit 7800+ levels in first hour then it should try to make attempt for 7840 which is a possibility based on Fibonacci extension.  

We are in budget week. We will get rail budget today and union budget on 10^th July. After that market will enter in earning season. Budget session will begin from today. This week will have some crucial value. It looks like we will get short term top by this week only if not today.

For today’s trading, technical support will stand at 7750. We may get random first half. Series extension suggests that we may get some good trading opportunity from 12 o’clock to 2 pm. traditionally rest other hours will be dull for trade. Do we have scope to hit 7840 today? Yes, as long as Nifty is above 7750, all bullish views are open. One should be cautious if toppy formation comes at 7800 or 7840.

As I said earlier, cross over above 7840 will open the scope for the test of 8000 levels. Whatever top has to come, it will come by this week only. In my view, it is possible to see trades above 7800 today. I may prefer to trade only in second half.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will get some higher opening near 7800 levels. It may give us a feeling of higher high but due to negative divergence effect it will face resistance at 7825 levels. I just conclude that we should not trade this in first half. How will it react at top? I will update during trading hours. My study is same of yesterday.

S&P 500 (USA) – It was a matter of one negative close and we got that yesterday. With this, I can say that probably a short term correction has started. Question is not that we are getting it from 1985 or from 2000, situation remains same. Major momentum indicators are on triple divergence. What we need is just a follow up selling. If we get sell off today also then we may be close to get a confirmation. Is it coming?  

07 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: NIFTY – three possible figure for short term top = 7761 or 7800 or 7840. Violation above 7840 will have another meaning for sharp rise towards 8000. This week top may remain final!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 07 July 2014: -

On 03 July 2014, FII Bought INR 950.82 crs and DII Sold INR 624.21 crs

On Friday’s session, nifty took a dive from high point to hit exact support of 7760 and then bounced in its own style in last hour to close near to crucial 7761. It was impressive bounce. Well, so far this rise is going on big negative divergence and its almost double big divergence. This will not take its effect unless the break of some critical point. I must add that we may be heading towards another short term top. This top can either be 7761 or 7800 or 7840. I expect for the break of 7761 in today’s session if not then it will surely play its role. So we left with two figures, one is 7800 and next is 7840.

We are in budget week. We will get rail budget tomorrow and union budget on 10^th July. After that market will enter in earning season. Budget session will begin from today. This week will have some crucial value. It looks like we will get short term top by this week only if not today.

7761 – is a decisive point.

For today’s trading, I prefer to watch market reaction near 7761. If it crosses above 7761 and sustain, then the next valuable approach towards 7800 levels. If it just finds resistance at 7761 then we may see the repeat of Friday’s session and we may have some quick fall. Major move may come in second half only.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will get some higher opening near 7800 levels. It may give us a feeling of higher high but due to negative divergence effect it will face resistance at 7825 levels. I just conclude that we should not trade this in first half. How will it react at top? I will update during trading hours.  

S&P 500 (USA) – This is a great momentum which has generated above 1970. We got close at 1985 and it is looking to hit psychological 2000 marks. Even DJIA closed above 17000 marks. S&P still has a room to move 15 points more before any correction. Trading pattern suggests keeping high low as stop loss to hold long. I am not adding anything more on analysis. I am simply waiting to see 2000 levels. It’s going to be historic event. 

04 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 7761 is next indicated resistance based on Elliott wave and it is matching with RSI negative divergence. Buy only if it sustain above 7761 !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 04 July 2014: -

On 03 July 2014, FII Bought INR 950.82 crs and DII Sold INR 624.21 crs

I can still say that as long as it is holding above 7685-7660, this market will present pullback view towards high. I am still worried towards big negative divergence on RSI. This is something which technician cannot ignore. Just for that caution, I am advising to be cautious if it misses 7760 levels today. I have already updates yesterday in my intraday updates that we will get initial sell off from high point. We got almost a dip of 50 points in very first hour.

S&P and DJIA hit new all-time high with DJIA crossing above 17000 marks. We will get a hangover opening. I am assuming that Nifty will open near 7750 levels. I suggest waiting for 10-12 points to get a higher cut above 7761 levels. If it sustain above 7761 then we can see levels of 7800 levels.

Equally, if it misses 7761 crossover then ‘RSI negative divergence’ can comes in to play anytime. This can pull the market down. I said this earlier also and repeating now also. It is a tug-of-war between ‘price’ vs ‘divergence’. So far, price is winning.

7761 – is a decisive point.

For today’s trading, I prefer to watch market reaction near 7761 or near 7700 levels. 7761 may be point to short and 7700 may be the point to buy. Question is which opportunity will come first. It hardly matters. Note one thing – above 7761, it is a strong buy. If Elliott wave fails at 7700 then it can fail at any levels. It has newly indicated top @ 7761.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will get some higher opening based on hang over of rise in US market. 7785-7800 will be a zone of stiff resistance. Cross over of 7800 can generate a strong buy. In the down side, 7720 may give a mild sell. One need to wait for better indication to come during trading hours.

S&P 500 (USA) – This is a great momentum which has generated above 1970. We got close at 1985 and it is looking to hit psychological 2000 marks. Even DJIA closed above 17000 marks. S&P still has a room to move 15 points more before any correction. Trading pattern suggests keeping high low as stop loss to hold long. I am not adding anything more on analysis. I am simply waiting to see 2000 levels. It’s going to be historic event. 

03 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: IGNORE all negative divergence of momentum indicators. NIFTY is very likely to hit 7800-7840 levels as next bullet fire. Use dip to buy and keep 7660 as stop loss for all long.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 03 July 2014: -

On 01 July 2014, FII Bought INR 856.35 crs and DII Sold INR 774.66 crs

It has moved above 7663 in a gap up and then successfully crossed above 7700 levels. Since then there is no stopping and closing was also stronger than ever. I have already said that if it crosses 7700 marks then it will violate A-B-C corrective pattern and that’s too with big negative divergence. Equally, one must note that it’s lastly “Price” which pays. So, how Elliott wave looks like after 7700? Here it is,

It has strongly generated a strong wave reversal with big negative divergence. Divergence will take its effect only after few negative closes. So far, chart says that Nifty may hit 7800-7840 as strong possibility. As long as Nifty is above 7685 to 7660, trading direction will be fully up.

So, market will be on strong side as long as it holds 7660 or coming near to 7840. One must market that it may still have 100 + points more on higher side. Also, it is looking has a break of flag pattern which is bullish. So top can still far away. This must be a pre-budget rally.

While concluding with technical indicators and Elliott wave, I must say that it is only “PRICE” which pays in stock market and it is always my prime focus. The “PRICE” is up and rising. So, basic thing, “PRICE” is up and primary up trend has established so price is likely to be up. RSI has a big negative divergence which will hunt my mind to be cautious. In fact, RSI is as ugly as bullish NIFTY. It’s not very rare, in general rise always become very rapid in this kind of pattern and indicators want to match with price.

For today’s trading, one can prefer to buy some intraday dip and it will be good if it comes near 7700 levels. On higher, side 7800 may be in the test in a day or two or three.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will open well above 7760 levels. I like to wait for decisive dip to buy with my stop loss at 7700 which will not change in any circumstances. It will be good if I get a dip around 7720 to buy. I say, price is brutally up and it is expected to be up till budget.

S&P 500 (USA) – It was just 4 points range of trading throughout the day. This is what I say that steam is running short after every rise and there is no feeling of fresh buying. It’s like market is dragging higher rather than running higher.  It means that market is forcing traders to be long but it remains choppy. I still say, psychological 2000 may be on hunt. It can either hit or miss by small margin. Before 2000, it can 1980 as a hurdle. Trading support for the day will be at 1968 and then at 1956. 

02 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: After gap up, 7700 Nifty will be most crucial and critical. Just wait for cross above 7700 to add fresh long. If NOT then it may be a trap!!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 02 July 2014: -

On 01 July 2014, FII Bought INR 856.35 crs and DII Sold INR 774.66 crs

Refer to the Elliott wave marking given in the chart. There is a marked point ‘b’ which is at 7663. This is called technical trigger point. Now, we saw good rise in US market last night and so we will see a gap up.

Keep your eye at 7663. Cross above 7663 will shoot up to give a level of 7700!!! Wave theory suggests that we may see 7700 at the max to form "B". Cross above 7700 will violate corrective wave formation and it will begin a new wave!!! What’s coming? It will be clear today.

Suppose, if it takes 7763 in gap up then we will see quick fire up move in first hour itself to hit levels near 7700. Then, it will be decisive. Elliott wave is strongly suggesting that this rally may not extend above 7700. I must say that unless we see some top formation we should not try to sail against trend. If it violates and cross above 7700 then rise can be very sharp and very massive. I must say that RSI is on big negative divergence so crossover of 7700 is not looking easy.

While concluding with technical indicators and Elliott wave, I must say that it is only “PRICE” which pays in stock market and it is always my prime focus. The “PRICE” is up and rising. So, basic thing, “PRICE” is up and primary up trend has established so price is likely to be up.

Unless we see some reversal pattern, we should not opt to trade short. 101%, whatever is going to happen will happen by today and today only? There is no question of tomorrow. What can come above 7700? If happens, then prepare for 7800-7900-8000 levels.  

NEAR TO 7700 MARKS, JUST SIT ON SIDELINE AND WATCH FIRST. CHANCES ARE HIGH FOR BULLS TRAP NEAR 7700.

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will open well above 7700 levels. I will not trade after that for intraday as RSI 14 has big divergence on daily chart we well as hourly chart. I have explained well enough why not to trade. My all focus will be “ 7 7 0 0 “ levels on NIFTY spot only.

S&P 500 (USA) – finally, it entered in the zone of 1970-1980. This is supposed to be expected move once it went above 1956. A top can emerge at 1980 in technical term but at 2000 in psychological term. So far, as long as it is above 1956, we can expect higher levels to come. Euphoria based rise can give us levels at 2000. Remember, 16000 is also a knocking door for DJIA. It has just missed yesterday. We have already entered in second half of the year 2014.