16 July 2014: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Bounce to continue if it sustain above 7530 and expected target to come at 7570 to 7600. Technical support will be at 7500 and 7460 levels. Fall expected from resistance.

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For 16 July 2014: -

On 15 July 2014, FII Sold INR 3.40 crs and DII Bought INR 471.78 crs

 On Elliott wave chart, I was in search to draw a point ‘b’ which should be on upward side. We got first positive close after five days of fall. So far, close came in expect line near 7530 but it was more shocking during trading hours. It took sharp rebound from its intraday low. At one time low was 7459.

If I consider the wave structure from its preceding down wave ‘a’ then we has 38% retracement coming at 7570. So, for today’s session if trades sustain above 7530 then we are likely to head in the range of 7570 to 7600. I can say that fall will hit from higher levels to form the next down wave ‘c’. So, we should be cautious near resistance.

Technical support will be at 7500 > 7460 levels. Do take a note that we cannot ignore the development of negative divergence on NIFTY daily chart. This bounce is a result of hourly oversold zone. If sell off comes from high again then we may see a possibility of Nifty heading towards 7200-7300 levels. We may get many answers by today’s session.

For today’s session, I have a technical strategy to trade long as long as it holds above 7530 but I like to ignore this option. I will rather prefer to trade short from high plus weakness which may come in second half.

My projected timing for short trade is = 12:20 pm to 02:00 pm. Trades may not soft till 11:00 am, it means it may stay positive till 11 am at least. This time study is irrespective of technical levels. Do read my intraday updates to know more technical levels to act or better opt our subscription.

Technical resistance = 7570 < 7600

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Strategy for Nifty July future – Nifty July future will open strong to positive start. As long as it is above 7550, it may try to take a move towards 7570-7600 but this is not a very compulsive condition. Still, it has scope to trade soft long in the morning minutes. Even if dip has to come then it will come in second half. Today’s closing will be decisive to mark point ‘b’ on Elliott wave chart.

S&P 500 (USA) – It was interesting trade yesterday night. It hit a high at 1982.50 and then slipped to hit 1965 before closing at 1973. Clearly, bears took charge near the resistance of 1985. I can sider this as the beginning of sell off. We need to know that 1950 is still a stiff support and bulls will be in race as long as it is above 1950. So, first question is – Will it break 1950 this time? May be yes. Opt shorting the range of 197X to 198X.