Friday, 5 April 2013

05 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: So finally it is inching closer to 5548 marks. Further break will give a hit to 5500 marks too. This market is finally out of phase of “easy recovery”. 5548 – Last hope!!!


You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.



For 05 April 2013: -
On 04 April 2013, FII Sold INR 326.21 crs and DII bought INR 64.73 crs.
It turned out to be third day in a row where FII has sold in cash market. This is definitely not a good sign. It seems that now FIIs are thinking about their position in India. As Indian market is under performing the global market so this phase was very obvious. I was feeling this phase to come lot earlier.  
Nifty has broken 5600 support and closed on decisive lower levels. It may turn out to be turmoil now. One should note that now trading support will be at 5548 and if it breaks further then it will stop only at 5500. These are very rapid fall that we are experiencing. Yesterday’s fall was very important as those were coming with all stable and rising global market.  
Looking on Nifty daily as well as hourly charts, I can say that it is showing signs of some recovery for intraday. Will it come? Well, it seems that market mood has totally changed. Selling was coming at critical points and hence it denied the deserved recovery.
RSI and MACD are giving small degree of positive divergence but confirmation has yet to come for those to act. I may be in better position to comment after opening.
There is some good news coming from policy making front. Finally, market got news that sugar decontrol is a reality now. Japanese market is running higher with 450+ points of gain. In terms of bad news, Korea giving jerks to some other Asian indices. There is nothing much to say. Keep your eye on 5548 and then at 5500 as support. Try to find out for the sign of recovery but those are very rare now a day.
Strategy for Nifty April future – I was not expecting the break of 5610 so easily but it did. You can say that these are the phases where all supports are failing and all resistances are working.  The last hope and the final hope have also died. So now, it is looking to move at 5562 and then 5536 (>5472) as support. These are painfully true. On higher side, nothing can be safe. It will face stiff resistance at 5624 levels. There is a positive divergence but no indication that it will play its role. Let us see.   

S&P 500 – It has some recovery in the last trading session and hence ‘follow up’ of selling was missing. Is it totally missing? No. Look at US Small cap 2000; it has lost 0.33% more. It is showing that profit taking has already started in US market. It is the matter of time when will it hit the blue chip Index stocks. I am raising the critical point as break down. Now it is at 1550-1548. (Previously, I was mentioning at 1545-1540 which has worked well as support). Something big can come anytime now.     

Regards,
Praveen Kumar

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