08 March 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Cross above 5834 came and now generating for which can pull market from phase of weakness. Further cross above 5889 may give 6000 levels without breaking 5800.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 08 March 2013: -

On 07 March 2013, FII bought INR 630.47 crs and DII sold INR 715.11 crs.

It was trading dull till 2:40 pm yesterday and then suddenly changes its mood. It has seen total of 48 points of rise after 2:40 pm. It was excessive shorting which has invited short covering and market moved to such levels. No pull back were able to change market mood in past more than a month but this is the strongest pullback till now.

I subdivided current fall in a-b-c wave only. More importantly, Nifty has crossed 100 SMA yesterday which was at 5842 levels. It is a stronger crossover which came by crushing bears. It may try to move towards the peak of ‘b’ wave which is at 5971. One must note that rise may not be as simple as I am writing. Today is 5^th day from the bottom at 5663. On charts it is looking stronger and it has generated support at 5800. It is giving me a sense that trading will be ‘buy in fall’ now. Previously, it was sell on rise.

I have still quoting a resistance at 5889 which might play important role. Looking on RSI and MACD, it is turning stronger for recovery. There is one thing which is still making me lesser confident to be bull and demanding caution. It is ‘H&S’ pattern.

What ‘H&S’ pattern is saying? It is a characteristic that it needs to break n-line and then try to re-test before decisive fall. Many times this pattern says for consolidation near to n-line before breaking. Near to RBI policy on 19 March, it will play its role in the best case of consolidation.

Strategy for Nifty March future – It said for the break below 5808 which never came and hit a low only at 5816. If rise comes in last 30 minutes then it can be very hard to conclude. Cross over of 5899 is generating target at 5924 levels. Further cross will give 5956 to 6000 levels on rise. It is hinting for support at 5880 now. If it trades below 5880 then only we can expect weakness else it can grind higher like Dow Jones.

S&P 500 – It has another high at 1545 levels. For intraday it took at low at 1538. It is still hard to say for any remarkable fall as we are not getting even single negative day. It is suggesting that US indices are getting lot to low support. If it is really true then just a break below 1538 can do some trading damage. I will not bet for rise. It should not cross 1552 and any break below 1538 will push indices back. I can say anything confidently at least one on negative close. Technical indicators are dead for S&P 500. Shall I buy? Noway.