27 May 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is still looking weak but support at 5930. If it breaks 5930 then only expect this selling to extend further. Resistance will be at 6012 and 6048.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 May 2013: -

On 24 May 2013, FII Sold INR 238.56 crs and DII sold INR 132.79 crs.

Above sell figures from FIIs are showing that they might be losing patience. It is a fact that FIIs are not making money on their India investment. Nifty slipped by 3.30% in the last week of trades. We saw first crack in Japanese market last week, like bubble bust. Even for today, right now Nikkei has seen a fall over 3%.  

I cannot say that American and European markets have given any great sign of price correction. It is likely to come but it has not come yet. Indian market has completely a different story, no matter what may be reasons. We have seen an easy dip of 3.30% dip last week. Now we are entering in derivative expiry week. We need to note that due to past five weeks of rise, we may not have great short build up yet. On Friday’s closing hours we got some intraday pullback due to short covering itself.

I have already quoted 5930 as a technical support for Friday and it hold well. I am giving importance to 5930 levels again for today also. If it breaks 5930 then we will see a sharp fall towards 5860 levels too. Apart from technical, I am sensing that Indian market will dance on Japanese as well as global mood.

Technical charts are suggesting for immediate support at 5950 to 5930 levels. On higher side we will have resistance at 6024 to 6048 levels.

Strategy for Nifty May future – SGX Nifty is trading with a weakness of 15 points. It is hinting for soft opening. For Nifty May month future, important support is at 5930. Expect expiry based volatility for today and it may continue for next few days. Any rise will get sold at higher levels. Technical resistance will be at 6012 and then at 6048. It is going to be another tougher trading today also in term of volatility.

S&P 500 – It 20 days exponential moving average at 1633 which has saved in past two days and market rebounded from a nearer level. Now, 1633 is a good technical support. Only break of 1633 will show any further sign of weakness. Will strongest bull of the world allow S&P 500 to slip below 1633? Let us see tonight. MACD gave a sell on daily chart. RSI has already given sell few days back. Weekly charts are saying for, “Wait and watch if it breaks 1633”.

One must note that the rise from 1536 to 1673, there is no correction and there is a gap up from 1599 to 1610. Another thing that you need to note is that S&P 500 and its 200 DMA has biggest difference so far in the history. 200 DMA is at 1481 and S&P @ 1655.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar