01 February 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: I have already expressed my view or a move towards 20 EMA. We are now on the verge – “Make or Break”. Spending time below 6020 will trigger sell off. So, short term top forming or not?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

On 31 January 2013, FII bought INR 958.93 crs and DII sold INR 863.60 crs.

Nifty hit 6000 marks on 2^nd January 2013 and till yesterday also it was just at 6034. I have already said that this is “the short term top formation”, while most were betting for further rally. Can I say that I am right when Nifty is only 70 odd points away from its 52 weeks high? No, I cannot claim that but I am sensing that we have already formed the top and based on that I took few short deals in the market. I would be happy in putting nail at 6111 as top.

From past many trading days I am saying about the support at 20 EMA. It is now at 6021. Nifty came very close to that yesterday but saved by some short covering on expiry days.

Focus on three things on my given chart –

First, RSI – you cannot conclude that it is even stable. It is giving a hint that it can drift any time lower to pressurize indices.

Secondly, 20 EMA – It is acting as strong support from past more than two months. Now it is at 6020. If it starts closing below 20 EMA then it can exhibit potential to end the rally.

Thirdly trend line – look at short term support line. It has violated yesterday. Take a note that trend line study is the basic of technical analysis and you cannot ignore that.

All these are suggesting that Nifty can head towards 5940 levels. It may take some pause near 5980 levels but those may not be stable support. You can sense pressure all across the globe from first week of February. I will not be surprise if Nifty remains dead for one more day.    

Strategy for Nifty February future: I am again repeating that it may not be easy for Nifty February future to cross above 6111 marks. It has closed lower yesterday. Technical charts are suggesting that if it breaks 6050 then you can get a slide towards 6010 to 6000 marks. On higher side 6094 and 6111 will act as stiff technical resistance. Keep one thing in mind – Nifty February future will also try to give up some premium.

S&P 500 – Till now S&P 500 is trading below 1500 marks. It has strong trading support at 1490. I feel that bears will start commanding position if it start trading below 1490 levels. On higher side 1507 must be untouchable. I am expecting technical correction from little longer time but it is keeping me under water yet. I strongly believe that trades in the range of 1475 to 1500 will be opportunity to short. This week, it is on pause and for the next week – it will be get-set-go for fall. Contraction in GDP and US indices are still stable?       

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

31 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A pause of this kind on index is a lead signal of weakness. I am still suggesting watching out for support @ 20 EMA, which is at 6020 now. We are at very last leg above 6000.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

On 30 January 2013, FII bought INR 906.36 crs and DII sold INR 1095.82 crs.

It was a dull trade yesterday and I am sure that you cannot name it as strength. Technical charts are still suggesting for a possible dip. We have derivative expiry today. We need to remember that mid cap and small cap indices has seen bigger cut from higher levels. Will traders choose to unwind their long position? If this happen then we can think about the bigger fall.

I am again suggesting focusing on the support of 20 EMA which has extended further higher to 6020 levels. Now if nifty breaks and trade below 6020 then we can see very sharp reaction. I have already said that our market is running with negative divergence on MACD and RSI. We have not seen any dip but it has limited the all possible gains above 6000 marks. Do you know that on 2^nd January 2013, we crossed 6000 marks first time in recent years? We are just 55 points higher than those 6000 marks.

I have said earlier also that I do not know what will come to stop this rally. Italian market slipped over 3% last night. It is looking like something is beginning. Even US GDP has also seen its first contraction since 2009.

How charts have worked for whole month? It gave me sell signal and given more than enough time to move out of long. Then it has given all possible levels to create short positions too.

Now it is market turn to satisfy technical conclusion. So, what is coming? A dip or more than a dip? Derivative expiry will play its role. I am still repeating that as long as 20 EMA hold this market can issue odd rebound.  

Strategy for Nifty February future: It has a high at 6111 yesterday and then a small dip. In fact it was just moving in only 20 points of range. Technical charts are suggesting that if it fails to cross 6111 then it may see a dip. Cross over of 6111 will make the market rising but it may remain dull. Suppose if it breaks 6080 then you can expect some tradable dip towards 6040 levels too. If I trade I will trade on short side. I will avoid long trade opportunity.

S&P 500 – It has seen its first cut from higher levels but it is still above 1500 marks. I have said that break of 1490 will give me fall. I am little sure that we got the opening to feel comfort on shorting biggest index of the world now. You will experience the impact on all global market. It will have technical resistance at 1508 itself. I have already quoted earlier that we will see remarkable cut which can begin anywhere between 1475 to 1500. Let us see.     

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

30 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Have we got 6111.80 as blow up top after RBI monetary policy review? Real confirmation will come only if it breaks 20 EMA, now @ 6016.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

On 29 January 2013, FII bought INR 899.83 crs and DII sold INR 938.71 crs.

RBI monetary policy review was in line with market expectation. In fact it was little more as 25 bps CRR cut also came but market gave up and hit low at 6042 before closing at 6050. I was expecting this kind of reactions. I will still not say that bulls are out from play. I am repeating the importance of 20 EMA from past few trading sessions. Now it is running at 6016 levels so for today’s trading it will have important support at 20 EMA at 6016.

One should look at the above chart. Whenever market is slipping, volume increases. We have seen sharper fall in mid cap and small cap stocks. These things are not comforting near to the top to sustain. I strongly believe that there is something which is troubling bulls. We have passed 20 trading sessions after crossing 6000 marks for the first time at 2^nd January 2013.

We need to note that this fall or better say, pause is coming when global market is on rise. I am more concerned with the fall in mid cap and small cap indices and stocks. I have already mentioned about negative divergence on crucial technical indicators like MACD and RSI. It may play important role in coming month of trading.

I will consider that the levels of 6084 < 6101 < 6112 will play as crucial and stiff resistance on any rise. In the down side just few close below 6016 will spoil the rally and may spread hint for trend reversal. If intensified selling does not come this week then prepare for this to come next week. Yesterday, nifty slipped significantly from higher levels but close to close it was just marginal.

Strategy for Nifty January future: Have we formed “blow up top”? I will wait for at least three trading session to confirm that. As of now it is looking for fall but I am repeating again, “as long as 20 EMA saves, you can expect frequent odd bounce form nearer levels”. Technical charts are suggesting for support at 6010 levels. So, as long as 6010 hold we can have hope. This hope can play its role for three days just. Sooner or later fall will come. Let us see if it breaks 6010 or rebound again.

S&P 500 – It is crossing above 1504 levels. It is shocking rise to me now. I am sensing that perhaps I have shorted S&P little earlier. It is forming higher high closing from past 8-9 trading sessions except 1-2 days in between. It is running in heavily over bought zone and I need to wait for weakness. There is a threshold at 1490. It needs to breaks 1490 to present any great weakness as of now. I can say that most of the things are indicating for fall. Only time can judge when will fall come? Soon very soon.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

29 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Randomness continues as long as it sustain above 20 EMA (now 6012). It can hit 6126 < 6150 only if it move above 6101. Break below 6050 will give 6012 to a free fall.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

On 28 January 2013, FII bought INR 783.56 crs and DII sold INR 864.22 crs.

Cross of 6101 will give us 6126 and then may be even at 6150 levels. As long as 20 EMA saves, we cannot say for reversal of wave. I have already said that 20 EMA is moving faster. Yesterday it was at 6006 and now it is at 6012. Traders must be fed up for whole month in finding direction. I was expecting this to come nearer to 6100 marks yesterday but it hit a high at 6088 only.

One can look at the given chart. It is showing that volume is coming down with the rise in indices. Nifty has passed 19 trading sessions above 6000 marks but it is still not giving great sign for higher extension. Today it is going to be fifth trading session after hitting new 52 week’s high.

As I said yesterday and repeating from past many days that VIX is not comforting with rise. It has a low near 12.50 and now it is above 15. We have seen dip in mid cap and small indices too. All these are indicating for a top.

It was waiting for event and it is coming today as RBI monetary policy review. I have already expressed my views that we will get 25 bps repo rate at the maximum. Will the market cheer? This is something where I am giving a doubt to bulls too.

When I am giving a doubt to bulls then also I am unable to see anything bigger by a percent. Remember you cannot make speculation on cross over of 6101. If it crosses then also it will make a blow up top either at 6125 or at 6150. Well, truly I am not very confident and it is fair to assume that I already have some speculative short positions in the market. Definitely not on banking stocks yet !!!

By any chance if it breaks 6050 then we may get 6012 levels. Take a note that 6012 is 20 EMA. If it breaks 6012 then we may see a dip for free fall.

Strategy for Nifty January future: I have already said that 6111 is still a crucial level to watch. It hit a high at 6092 levels and turned soft. Technical charts are suggesting that failure of 6111 may result some odd reactions. If Nifty January future breaks 6060-6050 levels then it can slip again towards 6000 marks. You can expect impulsive movement after and before RBI monetary policy review. For February month’s contract you can expect a top coming very soon. Will it be a blow up top?

S&P 500 – I have already said yesterday, 1504, remains a challenge for S&P correction to begin. I am spotting – S&P 500 will make a top this week itself. Short – Short and Short.  

Till now, it missing 1504 and hit a low at 1496. Failure of 1504 should be one part of confirmation. I am feeling that break and close below 1490 will give good confirmation. Believe it or not but upcoming correction can shock even bears like me.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

28 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 20 EMA has saved and we got a typical bounce. It is looking like to re test 6101. Cross over will result a move towards 6126. Technical trading support will be at 6042.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

On 24 January 2013, FII bought INR 586.87 crs and DII sold INR 331.92 crs.

It was stronger push by banking stocks which has pulled the market higher on Friday. We have saved 20 EMA again in the dip. We have RBI monetary policy review tomorrow and we have derivative expiry for January month series this week. So this week is going to be vital and critical for market.

Market is trying to be stable above 6000 but we have seen under performance in mid cap and small cap index in last few days. It is looking like to deny ‘negative divergence of MACD’ for few more days. I am giving all importance to 20 EMA support. We can say that market is saving till now and may try to extent little more in this week of trades if RBI gives the expected rate cut.

I need to draw your attention towards rising VIX. It is now moving near 14 now after making a low near 12.50. It was also confirmed by selling stocks like HUL and Tatamotors. I still believe that we are near top but I am unable to say any particular level as top. Indications are coming that we may see some extension of rise this week.

I have quoted this earlier also that at these kinds of levels it will be only banking sector which will dominate.  We have RBI policy tomorrow and most banks are looking for gain. I am expecting 25 bps repo rate cut tomorrow which market is already pricing in. Nifty may try to make newer 52 weeks high in that process. Cross of 6101 will give us 6126 and then may be even at 6150 levels. As long as 20 EMA saves, we cannot say for reversal of wave.

Strategy for Nifty January future: I have spotted 6111 for January month but now it is looking to make a test towards 6111 levels. Cross over of 6111 will give a move towards 6130 and then 6160 also. We will have important trading support at 6050. You can expect first half range from 6050 to 6100+ (6111) for the first half. Remember it is important to save 6050. I cannot say anything for second half. Yes, we may see sharp and very sharp swings. Suppose if it start trading below 6050 (for 5 minutes) or failure above 6111 at higher levels will result weakness.

S&P 500 – 1504, remains a challenge for S&P 500 as of now. It is very surprising that VIX is lowest of 5 years. When everyone says buy as everything is fine then time comes for caution. Remember that most top forms in this kind of environment only. I am waiting for correction to begin. I am spotting – S&P 500 will make a top this week itself. Short – Short and Short.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

25 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Eye opener fall begins on mid cap indices as expected. By any chance, if Nifty goes below 5995 then expect massive selling (likely) !!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

On 24 January 2013, FII bought INR 1026.32 crs and DII sold INR 752.26 crs.

Are you still focusing on the figure that FII are buying? If yes, then feel that pain of fall in stocks like HDIL, IVRCL INFRA and even HUL and TATAMOTORS. After crossing 6000 marks, we spend 17 trading sessions but we are still at 6000. I have already indicated for “the topping” formation in this zone.

It is market dynamics that give us price correction and it was bound to come. I have already said that MACD and RSI are giving ‘negative divergence’ which cannot be ignored to a bigger time period. I will still say, save your self from burning mid cap stocks. Promoter’s game is not over yet and asks SEBI why this happening is in a periodic manner.

It is technical which are giving indications in advance and it is up to you if you re accepting or you are rejecting because of temporary failures. I was expecting that first top should come from US market but it is looking like Indian market might have formed first top.

If you are a trader then also you need to give the test of patience. Even shorting in this market may not reward you in small time frame. First weakness has emerged on metal stocks from higher levels. if you look at the money flow pattern then you can able to see that HUL and TATA MOTORS were FII favourite and both got multiple up gradation. Now both slipped drastically. I am leaving conclusion on you to understand. Who was right?

Strategy for Nifty January future: I have spotted 6111 for January month future and it has failed to give us a fall which is almost 100 points now. Even yesterday it was written for 6010 to 6000. It hit 6010 before moving higher. We have seen second half fall. For today, keep an eye on 6000 marks. Trade below 6000 for 5-10 minutes will give 5950. On higher side 6080 will be tougher resistance too cross.  

S&P 500 – 1504, a high on S&P 500 came yesterday to hit highest levels since September 2007. I kept on saying buy from 1345 and even at 1400. I turn bearish saying that rise till 1500 is possible but those are shorts only. Remember the fear gauge VIX is at all time low. This index must see correction. First sing of weakness will come below 1475 which is now too far.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

24 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty has rebounded sharply yesterday from 6020 but it may again feel pressure at higher levels. Advance – Decline ratio and mid cap performances are poorer. .

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

On 23 January 2013, FII bought INR 802.62 crs and DII sold INR 852.33 crs.

We have seen sharp recovery yesterday from lower levels of 6020. It was not very expected levels but reasons were equally odd. It is fashionable to give support to the market by big talk. I have no reason to believe that we will get anything lower on fiscal deficit, no matter who advocated.

From past three days, my idea is that we should have stiff resistance at 6100 and then market should retrace towards 20 EMA. It has slipped from 6100 and as of yesterday’s close 20 EMA is at 5996 levels. I am still feeling that we will see stiff resistance at 6100 marks on any rise.

Before making a top market tends to give some indications in advance. We have relatively lower performance by mid cap and small cap indices. These indices are performing poorer compared to blue chip indices. Another worry point is that advance-decline ratio is constantly poor from past many trading sessions.   

I have already discussed the negative divergence by MACD and RSI on daily charts. This could result some sharp impulse at higher levels. Yesterday’s rebound from lower was also another example. This is still not comforting. We need to remember that RSI and MACD are hinting that rise will be limited above 6000 marks and it is true till now. In spite of tremendous money flow by FII, our market is at least not rising.   

I am repeating that RBI may not go for 50 bps repo rate cut looking on inflationary environment. This can be disappointment for market but market is not discounting this yet.

Strategy for Nifty January future: We can expect a pause on rise at 6082. Cross over of 6082 might result the attempt towards 6111 levels but it may fail again. It is looking like we may see fall from higher levels. In the down side, I am already quoting for support at 20 EMA. This is showing that Nifty future need to come near to 6000 to 6010 marks. We need to remember that as long as we are saving 20 EMA, it may rebound like yesterday.

S&P 500 – Day by day it is inching closer to 1500 marks. After market hours APPLE disappointment is coming. US market is turning dull but not ready to give us. It seems that it can fall only from nearer 1500 marks. This is also coming. I retain my views that anything above 1475 is for short for a bigger fall. I am assuming that reasons will emerge later on.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

23 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty hits its critical resistance at 6100 and then slipped. We have further extension in 20 EMA support @ 5990. We may go close to 5990 sooner.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

On 22 January 2013, FII bought INR 1046.40 crs and DII sold INR 855.35 crs.

Looking above figures, one can say that FII are still finding Indian market attractive. There is no denial that nifty is hitting crucial resistances on daily basis. Yesterday it hit resistance at 6100 marks. We have seen reactions at higher levels and Nifty came lower to hit 6040.

Crossover of 6068 had generated target of 6100 but I was not very confident for crossing 6100. A fall from 6100 might be the first indication of some fall. My focus will be at 20 EMA. I am mentioning and plotting 20 EMA on my charts from past many days. As of yesterday’s closing, 20 EMA is at 5990 levels. Current up wave can reverse only if we see two closes below 20 EMA.  

I have no idea at all about the reason for price correction. Charts are suggesting that we might be forming top. We cannot conclude anything from just one day of intraday fall. Question is that we will we get follow up in selling? If yes, then it may try to come near to 5990.

Based on wave theory, we are on fifth wave progression. Now, there is a big problem in this fifth wave. It is running with negative divergence on crucial technical indicators like MACD and RSI. This weakness of technical indicators is giving all signs of uncomfortable moves.

There were some reports that unemployment rate will be highest in the year 2013. We have some selling in global market when we were trading but those have recovered to a good extent in night hours.

One more thing, RBI may not go for 50 bps repo rate cut looking on inflationary environment. This can be disappointment for market but market is not discounting this yet.

Strategy for Nifty January future: I said yesterday that you can expect the test of 6060 unless we stand tall above 6111. It hit a high at 6109 and then we all know what has happened. For today’s session also technical levels of resistance will emerge only at 6111. It need to be a wild day and perhaps majority of reactions will come in second half. Technical charts are giving me the indications for the test of 6000 marks. Premium fluctuation will be troubling.

S&P 500 – It has some high at 2007. VIX is running below those 2007 levels. When investors turn so fearless, I start fearing. Definitely I am not trying to be over confident as there are genuine sign for fall. It is now at 1492. It has extended above 1475 but may fail before 1500.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

22 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is on dull and tired rise but still on upward trajectory. Wave reversal support is at 5985 (20 EMA). Top must form firstly on US market not any other.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

On 21 January 2013, FII bought INR 842.96 crs and DII sold INR 890.17 crs.

Nifty is still running higher. It does not matter if it is dull or tired. Simple charting structure suggests that when we are not even closing negative then we cannot say about immediate weakness although we are near another crucial resistance of 6100.

I have already said that cross of 6068 may able to give 6084 to 6100 marks. We are now near to 6100. Remember, cross of 6100 will result a move towards 6126 levels. We have most crucial trading and short term support at 20 EMA. It is also rising sharply. 20 EMA is now at 5985 levels, still almost 100 points away.

We may see intraday dull moves but most such movement is getting a follow up by impulsive rise in second half. Money flow remains robust from FII side. It is looking like market is not wanting price correction but this kind of assumption is not good for rise. Corporate results are better than what I was expecting. There are no negative surprises in any big ways.

I still believe that we are running for top formation but we are not on exact top. Before getting a top we may have some indications from other factors too. Like, mid cap and small cap indices will start under performing. You can sense that it is already starting. Market may try to catch some threshold.

Based on wave theory, we are on fifth wave progression. Now, there is a big problem in this fifth wave. It is running with negative divergence on crucial technical indicators like MACD and RSI.

Perhaps, it is defining those sudden impulses which we are getting during trading hours now a day.

Strategy for Nifty January future: I need to state that premium fluctuation is beyond the scope of explanation. Yesterday, sometime it was having premium of 6 points and sometime running with 21 points premium. It is very tough to save trades from this kind of premium. Technical charts are suggesting for support at 6060. You can expect the test of 6060 unless we stand tall above 6111. Split trading movement in two parts, one pre 2 pm and other post 2 pm.

S&P 500 – It has some high at 2007. VIX is running below those 2007 levels. When investors turn so fearless, I start fearing. I am expecting the dip to come very soon and my first logical target is at 1445. I do not know the reason of fall. I am already saying that anything above 1475 is for short and short only. Till now, I am wrong and it seems that I have initiated short in hurry but I am firm on my decision. Definitely I am not trying to be over confident as there are genuine sign for fall.. 

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

21 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty make another dot hit on well informed resistance at 6084. Only the cross over of 6084 will give us 6100 to 6126. Expect support at 6024, we might be running near top.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

On 16 January 2013, FII bought INR 1169.65 crs and DII sold INR 961.67 crs.

Nifty hit my informed resistance at 6084. We got Reliance result after market which is impressive enough to open with 5% gap up. Somehow it may not able to give much impact on indices. Technical charts are suggesting that trend it still up with sluggishness. Immediate trading support will emerge at 6024 in any intraday fall.

I still believe that we may move higher towards 6100 or 6126 but these might be for top. I am not trying to put a nail on top as it is a dangerous task. I have already said this in past also that as long as we are above 20 days exponential moving average we are safe for short term. As of Friday’s close 20 EMA is at 5974 levels.

One can refer to my weekly wave analysis of Nifty to understand the VIX. It has closed in green on a week where market was rising. This is definitely not a good sign for market. I am unable to conclude the time frame but it can make its impact very soon, in a week or two that depends on market mood.

One need to note that now mid cap and small cap indices are underperforming Nifty.

If you look at the hourly chart, we can experience the intraday toughness. Where are the days when we were getting trading movement of 40-40 points in a day? Practical trading range need to improve but it is still narrow from month of December 2012 itself.

For today, I have a hope from Reliance whose GDR has gained over 5% in Landon Stock Exchange.

Strategy for Nifty January future: It came near too 6096 but unable to cross. It may try to move another attempt. Failure of 6-96 to 6100 will give another intraday dip of 20-25 points. This might be the impact of Reliance. As long as it is above 6050 for intraday basis, there can be the possibility of bounce back. Break below 6050 will drag it towards 6018 to 6000 marks. Nothing is impossible. Successful cross over of 6100 can invite short covering but those depend on extent of rise on Reliance only.           

S&P 500 – It has some high at 2007. VIX is running below those 2007 levels. When investors turn so fearless, I start fearing. I am expecting the dip to come very soon and my first logical target is at 1445. I do not know the reason of fall. I am already saying that anything above 1475 is for short and short only. Till now, I am wrong and it seems that I have initiated short in hurry but I am firm on my decision. Definitely I am not trying to be over confident as there are genuine sign for fall..  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

18 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Market need to feed with good new to move higher. Partial deregulation of diesel price was one such news. Cross over of 6068 will give 6084-6100.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

On 16 January 2013, FII bought INR 564.20 crs and DII sold INR 578.19 crs.

It was another set of reform where government of India has announced ‘partial deregulation’ diesel price. Bulk buyers will not get any subsidy on diesel price from today onwards. This news makes the market from to exciting. It was good news but it brings a bad news too. There is a fear of rise in inflation. So where oil companies were on fire, banking stocks were on fall.   

Indian indices are not as strong as rest other Asian indices in spite of reforms announcement, hourly technical chart is suggesting for a strong opening and stable first half. It is giving me a hint that it will see a second half selling or profit taking from higher levels. This level can be at 6068 or 6084. In a extreme case it can be 6100 too.

On daily chart we have ‘negative divergence’ on MACD which is still continuing. There is a upward channel which has saved the lower band of upward channel every times in recent days. I am still saying that this market is running near to short term top but top might not have formed yet. I am not in hurry to conclude anything as top yet.

I have highlighted 20 days exponential moving average as decisive support. Now it is at 5965, which is still looking too far for today’s trade. Until we start closing below 20 EMA for 2-3 days, we cannot say that this market can see remarkable profit taking. One should watch the mid cap stocks and indices carefully as those has started a phase of under performance.

Do remember, “Correction will come the day when least number of people will expect about it.”

Strategy for Nifty January future: It is loosing premium with rise in index. We have started month with premium of 60+ points but not it is only 12-13 points, so almost a percent has lost in premium. Technical charts are saying that we may not be near to recent high of 6096 levels. It may open near to 6070 and then may try to attempt towards 6096 but may not cross. In the second half, we can see tradable moves. Short in post 2 pm trade with a stop loss above days high till that time.           

S&P 500 – It was tired near 1475 but yesterday it has crossed ad close above 1480. is it changing anything much. No, I have already said that it may move towards 1500 but use all such rise for short and short. I do not know what will come to top this rally but something will come. We have seen almost 10% rise from recent low of 1345.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

17 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: In a topping formation, it can give characteristic fall from each possible top. Nifty looking to hit 5940 in coming few days after a higher start.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

On 16 January 2013, FII bought INR 1029.50 crs and DII sold INR 691.76 crs.

FII money flow is really massive and DII kept on selling. There is great change in money flow it is still stable and positive.

Yesterday, we have seen some sharp dip from higher levels on global cues. Global cues were not as bad as market were thinking. It has reacted with higher intensity. We need to understand that even bulls are not very confident above 6000 of nifty. I am already saying from past two weeks that market is not giving stable rise above 6000. We have seen rise on technology stocks and then telecom stocks to make an attempt to add strength above 6000.  

Technical charts are already showing signs of sluggishness but yet not turning concerning. In past few days, it has generated this kind of patterns multiple times but never given anything greatly concerning.

I need to say that traders must watch 20 days exponential moving average. It is coming closer to 5957 levels. So if Nifty close below 5957 this time then I can say that it is concerning. It is still too far to talk about. Technical indicators like MACD and RSI is not looking stable on daily chart for 1-2days of movement.

I am feeling that Indian corporate earning is so far good but many stocks price are much higher. After Infosys people may try to focus on Reliance earning numbers where traders are assuming for a positive surprise on refinery margin.

There will two important expectations to dominate the trend. One is up coming monetary policy review and the next is budget expectation. You can expect from RBI monetary policy review but do not expect great things for economy from budget. Whatever has to come it will come earlier than budget.

Conclusion Nifty: It has broken 6024-6018 marks and slipped 26 points in no time. Closing at 6002 is not considered as stable close although it is not concerning yet. I am constantly saying that is giving signs of topping formation. Who knows it might be 6068 which can remain short term top. Two points for today’s trade. One is at 5980 and the next is 5957. You must look the hourly chart which was refreshed for today. It was a great fifth wave and then fall to give wave ‘a’. A minor upward wave ‘b’ will come but then we will see a fall again.          

S&P 500 – I said, “Short on every rise. We may see 1500 also but all those levels will be for SHORT & SHORT only.” Till now it is turning shy at 1475 levels. I cannot say when it will see a dip but many momentum indicators are turning sluggish. It is a zone where one needs to spread short. Correction will technical in nature. Nothing great is happening in US market from past few days.

Praveen Kumar

16 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: More steam left on Nifty and it may try to achieve the levels of 6084 or higher. Immediate trading support will be at 6024. It is topping formation but not a exact top yet.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

On 15 January 2013, FII bought INR 1077.55 crs and DII sold INR 755.84 crs.

FII can put as much money as much they want and it is looking endless right now. Nifty is breaking every single technical barrier with ease. We are near to the top but not on top yet. One must note that in a market which kept on hitting newer high, it is not possible to say that any particular levels will be a top or will form a top.

We will have immediate trading support at 6024 levels. We need to see some formation to develop at higher levels to bet for any remarkable weakness. As of now I can say that 20 days exponential moving average is one such level. It is still below 6000 marks of Nifty.

Practical trading suggests that we need to rely more on charting formation than moving average cross over or break down. Many technical indicators have entered in over bought zone. Many global markets are trading on mutli-month high.  

My prime reason to be susceptive is divergence formation on few important technical indicators. We may not see decisive fall now but things are not even looking good for buy. A technical chart has a structure which is suggesting for 6080-6084 as target on the cross above 6042.

I need to say that cross over will generate the target of 6126 on Nifty spot. We have seen some silence to profit taking in European market. I am expecting profit taking to come in Asian indices today. Can I say same thing for Nifty? Opps !!! No, not yet. Market is still assuming that we will get a rate cut in this month. “Optimism” is a key driver above 6000 of Nifty. The person who is going to take a decision is still silent. Corporate earning is looking good so far but many stocks has already seen very sharp rise in past three months.

Conclusion Nifty: We can conclude that up trend will continue and Nifty may try to move towards 6084 levels. It will have trading support at 6024.Wecan expect profit taking only if it sustain below 6024 for 5-10 minutes. Do note that nifty future will give lots of trouble due to heavy fluctuation in premium. I am taking a key that I will buy only a positive market. I will not prefer to conclude for buy in dip kind of strategy from higher levels.        

S&P 500 – I said, “Short on every rise. We may see 1500 also but all those levels will be for SHORT & SHORT only.” Till now it is turning shy at 1475 levels. I cannot say when it will see a dip but many momentum indicators are turning sluggish. It is a zone where one needs to spread short. Correction will be technical in nature. There are few concerns over debt ceiling but those has no great impact yet.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

15 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty closed on multi-month high backed by booster dose over GAAR. I still suggest that it should be the short term top no matter how many bulls are there.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

On 14 January 2013, FII bought INR 611.10 crs and DII sold INR 1210.55 crs.

Few days back I said that this market is rising only if it gets a booster dose of some good news. With the beginning of the month we got a trigger from US market on solution over fiscal cliff. Now all of a sudden it comes GAAR this time. It has learnt that it is going to be implemented from year 2016. I say, a great policy making. It is just showing the confusion and the benefit goes to bulls. A rising market can ignore anything. No one is concerned about economy but everyone is concerned about stock price.

Technically, it does not matter how but it has closed at 6024 levels which are sending some good news to bulls. I am saying from past few days that we are perhaps near to short term top. I still stick with it. Even if rise comes it can be 1-2% only. It cannot change many things. Another thing is that the numbers of bullish people are very obviously going to be higher near to the top.

Charting has no concerned structure but surely it may not remain same. As of now, it has saved at 20 EMA and bounced. I need to be equally clear that technical indicators are not as troubling as of Friday.

My prime reason to be susceptive is divergence formation on few important technical indicators. We may not see decisive fall now but things are not even looking good for buy. I have a view that we are moving towards last stage of so called ‘reforms; Technical charts has a structure which is suggesting for 6080-6084 as target on the cross above 6042.

Yesterday, we have better WPI numbers and a bad CPI numbers. Market is largely betting on rate cut and rise is dominated by those reasons too.

Conclusion Nifty: It rebound on the day when I was least expecting this kind of bounce but it was purely based on news and related short covering. Things remain unchanged for me except few technical levels. It has closed at 6024and it is generating potential to move towards 6080-6084 levels. Immediate technical support will emerge at 6000 marks.      

S&P 500 – I strongly say, “Short on every rise”. We may see 1500 also but all those levels will be for SHORT & SHORT only. Till now 1475 remains untested and it is trading at 1467 (when I am compiling this article). Is S&P 500 making second top which is lower than 1475? If yes then it first bad news for bulls.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar