17 January 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: In a topping formation, it can give characteristic fall from each possible top. Nifty looking to hit 5940 in coming few days after a higher start.
You must read previous articles and
watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.
Today’s outlook: -
On 16 January
2013 , FII
bought INR 1029.50 crs and DII sold INR 691.76 crs.
FII money flow is really massive and
DII kept on selling. There is great change in money flow it is still stable and
positive.
Yesterday, we have seen some sharp
dip from higher levels on global cues. Global cues were not as bad as market
were thinking. It has reacted with higher intensity. We need to understand that
even bulls are not very confident above 6000 of nifty. I am already saying from
past two weeks that market is not giving stable rise above 6000. We have seen
rise on technology stocks and then telecom stocks to make an attempt to add
strength above 6000.
Technical charts are already showing
signs of sluggishness but yet not turning concerning. In past few days, it has
generated this kind of patterns multiple times but never given anything greatly
concerning.
I need to say that traders must
watch 20 days exponential moving average. It is coming closer to 5957 levels. So
if Nifty close below 5957 this time then I can say that it is concerning. It is
still too far to talk about. Technical indicators like MACD and RSI is not
looking stable on daily chart for 1-2days of movement.
I am feeling that Indian corporate
earning is so far good but many stocks price are much higher. After Infosys
people may try to focus on Reliance earning numbers where traders are assuming
for a positive surprise on refinery margin.
There will two important expectations
to dominate the trend. One is up coming monetary policy review and the next is budget
expectation. You can expect from RBI monetary policy review but do not expect
great things for economy from budget. Whatever has to come it will come earlier
than budget.
Conclusion Nifty: It has broken 6024-6018 marks and
slipped 26 points in no time. Closing at 6002 is not considered as stable close
although it is not concerning yet. I am constantly saying that is giving signs
of topping formation. Who knows it might be 6068 which can remain short term
top. Two points for today’s trade. One is at 5980 and the next is 5957. You
must look the hourly chart which was refreshed for today. It was a great fifth
wave and then fall to give wave ‘a’. A minor upward wave ‘b’ will come but then
we will see a fall again.
S&P 500 – I said, “Short on every rise. We
may see 1500 also but all those levels will be for SHORT & SHORT only.” Till
now it is turning shy at 1475 levels. I cannot say when it will see a dip but
many momentum indicators are turning sluggish. It is a zone where one needs to
spread short. Correction will technical in nature. Nothing great is happening
in US
Praveen Kumar
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