20 July ’12: Nifty Elliott wave Analysis: To get a direction in wave ‘B’ or ‘C’, we need to break the range of 5279 to 5209 on either side. Do not expect good reaction about half hearted reforms.

To get a direction in wave ‘B’ or ‘C’, we need to break the range of 5279 to 5209 on either side. Do not expect good reaction about half hearted reforms.  

Today’s outlook: -

Nifty has moved in 25 points of range in the last trading session with a fall in many banking stocks. Now president poll has passed and cabinet approve fewer important measures to boost up economy. Was that sufficient enough? Very clearly, no. We must expect something bigger. Will those come? I am not very sure. There are talks of FDI in retain by august 15.

Waves are suggesting for the continuation of these choppy days. We need to either stand above 5279 or below 5209 to get any better direction.

For today also,

Nifty will have resistance @ 5260 < 5279. IN the lower side we can expect support at 5230 > 5209. I have no great sense as of now for market moving higher.

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889