NIFTY: 10 May 2012: Nifty will get support at 4951 > 4930 > 4913 in dip now. Strength can be expected only on sustained trading above 5021.

When every single person on street start saying that market will fall then it must be the time to be cautious from shorting.

Where is the support? I must say that if you can derive any support with bigger wave in magnitude then those may workout well. Few such supports are 4951 and 4913.

Ratio analysis suggests that above two levels will be crucial. Let us see how those are developed. (I am giving description rather than imposing my levels on you).

• 4951 – This is 38.20% from 4531 or 61.80% from 5631 (of rise from 4531 to 5631).
• 4913 – It is derived from its first impulsive fall from 5631 to 5268. We have next top at 5499. Take 1.618 times of 5631-5268.
• No market can run without correction. Correction comes for rise also and falls also. In case fall it is a must. It has seen that correction may miss for rise but never miss for fall.

In between, Nifty deserves a bounce but question remains same about magnitude and period. We will see a bounce but no bounce will sustain in coming days/weeks. Depending on the bounce I will join shorting again.

As of now, Nifty should comes near to 5020. Cross over of 5020 will push Nifty higher towards 5060. In best case we may expect levels of 5100. It will be an upwards trading correction. We will expect fall from those higher levels but not today. It is not only price which retraced, we have to consider time retrenchment.


Updating at 11 am : 5040 is acting as stiff resistance. Can be (5630-5171=459 pts / 5499-459=5040)

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Praveen Kumar

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