Wednesday, 2 May 2012

Axis Bank:A short term study- Hinting for fall



First look at three short terms top (indicated in the chart). These are 1308.45 then 1283.70 and then 1226.50.
Look at short terms bottom (indicated in the chart). These are 1105 then 1105.75 then 1095.20 and very recently 1076.20.

(I have not written those too many figures to keep the chart clean. So one must note these given figures in mind)

Above is clearly indicating about the formation of constant lower tops and lower bottom formation. First three short term bottoms were more o less flat but the third one is surely concerning. Why it is concerning?

Focus on fall from 1226.50 to 1076.20 = 150.30
Most general recovery should have been retraced by 38.20% from 1076.20. Those recovery figures are 1133.65. This stock hit a high at 1135.85 in impulse but practically remains below 1130.
If any recovery turns shy just near to 38.20 retrenchment then most of the time stocks is bound to retest their recent previous lows. (This is the reason that past fewer bottom remains near to the levels of 1100).

RSI – It has pushed down to significant levels at each lower point. It is an indication that with every newer low RSI is turning weak. This in turn can be concluded as lead sign of some remarkable fall. Is it really coming? It is hard to conclude immediately as I always prefer to take step wise approach.

My call as of now is – firstly stay away form this stock for any kind of buying. Secondly, it can be in turn a short with working stop loss 1136. (Take note - validity of this pattern and study is as long as it stay below 1133.65. Such patterns are there is some more banking stocks). 

Regards
Praveen Kumar 

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