27 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Last hope for bulls will be 5970. If it breaks then one must unwind all long deals if you have. Alarming signs are coming near derivative expiry.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 27 November 2013: -

On 26 November 2013, FII Sold INR 339.16 crs and DII Sold INR 356.90 crs

Now once again FII cash data has turned negative. More important is that once again Nifty has closed near its lowest intraday levels. Many times I have quoted that heavy FII buying used to go at tops. Hope you remember that FIIs were buying near 6200 very heavily few weeks back.  

Worse part is that when almost every single global index is running near their 52 week high, Indian market is very shy from those cues. I consider this as under performance as bad sign for buying. We are just one trading session away from November month expiry.

For today’s trading if Nifty breaks 6030-6024 levels then it will be confirmation of retest of 5970 support levels. On higher side it will face resistance at 6080-6100 levels. Blue chip stocks like reliance, TCS and Bharti is trading on weaker note. I still like to add that if it breaks 5970 then one must unwind all long trades. It can result fall towards 5850 and then towards 5700 also.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future will open on almost flat note. We can expect volatility for today’s trading session. It may not be very reactive in first half as most of the time action goes in second half. Good trading support will be only at 6035-6030 levels which may be tested today. Any further break will cause damage towards 6000-585 levels. Will it break 5985? I cannot deny the possibility.

S&P 500 (USA) – Traditionally, it hit another life time high yesterday but fail to sustain at higher levels. It was just a dull close. It is still not giving any big sign of profit taking but it is now missing momentum. I still believe that 1813 is a meaningful resistance or you can say target also. It is not going to be great days to deal in US market future.  

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

26 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: We are close to expiry and VIX moved by 5% yesterday. Expect pullback again. Key support will be at 6050 levels only. Avoid long at higher levels.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 26 November 2013: -

On 25 November 2013, FII Bought INR 837.80 crs and DII Sold INR 743.82 crs

Have a look at the fall of past three trading days. It slipped from 6212 to 5792. Now in just one day it has covered 62% of the fall. These are rapid and wild swing. On Friday VIX was down by 5% and then we saw Nifty running on Monday. Now, on Monday VIX is up by 5% and it is hinting for a pullback again.

European and American market hit its fresh new 52 week high again. This is long phase of underperformance in Indian market. If global market goes on profit taking then situation can be concerning in India. I quoted many times that we can be optimistic buyer but cannot rule out the odd outcome.

For today’s trading 6140 is likely to be a stiff resistance to deal while market can slip to test the support of 6050 or nearer. We are in derivative expiry week now and just two days away from November month expiry. If things goes wrong here then we can expect derivative expiry going on lowest point of the month.

Although we are 2% away from 5970 but I still like to add that if it breaks 5970 then one must unwind all long trades. It can result fall towards 5850 and then towards 5700 also.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future may give up some premium again as hints are coming from option market. It is likely to see that December month series will also give up major part of premium. Technical support will be at 6090 levels. Break of 6090 will give it a move towards 6070 and then 6055. Note that 6055 will be final support and break can cause panic sell off. On higher side 6140 is a resistance. Although on the cross it can add 25-30 points more to come near 6170 levels.

S&P 500 (USA) – It has started year at 1426 and now almost sitting with gain of almost 380 points. It has to stop some point for correction. I still consider that as long as it is staying above 1790 it will avoid all such possible signal for profit taking. We may see some year-end profit taking next month. Due to long negative divergence every silent day makes me cautious from long. In all, resistance at 1813 and support at 1790.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

25 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It has again saved 5970 and so life for bulls will remain there. Iran signs nuclear deal and world cheers. Shall we expect get some support in India too?

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 25 November 2013: -

On 22 November 2013, FII Sold INR 2.83 crs and DII Sold INR 252.45 crs

I still believe that as long as it holds 5970 levels we can expect for a rise. It may be technical recovery but it deserve rise. Technical indicators are turning for positive divergence. We should note that market slipped with low volume this time. This is also good factor for traders.

I am still concerned with under performance in Indian market. Note that almost all major global indices are hitting their new 52 week higher levels. Indian market is almost on the lowest point of past one month’s trade.

Technical suggest for a strong support at 5970 levels. RSI also gave a positive divergence but this divergence has a meaning only after at least one positive close. This is importance that we close negative from past three trading days in a row. Even after strong global cues we need at least one positive close to conclude for some short term low.

I like to add a warning too with the beginning of this week. Nifty closed below 6000 levels for twice. Technical charts are saying that if Nifty starts closing below 5970 then it may give a fall as brutal as 5850 and 5700 of Nifty. Be optimistic for rebound but be cautious too. Iran nuclear deal will give advantage to India also as India can import crude oil from Iran up to its full capacity.

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open flat to positive today. Assume support at 6000 and 5985 levels. On higher side it still needs to cross above 6070 to attract short covering. It is still a tough task. It is too early to conclude or restore confidence for bulls. One thing is clear; do not buy anything if it slips below 5985 levels. So the range of 6070 to 5985 will critical and possesses technical meaning. It may not be a bad idea to be silent in the range of 6070 to 5985.  

S&P 500 (USA) – It has closed above 1803 and now showing all signs for a move towards 1824-1830 levels. Immediate trading support will be at 1798 and 1789 levels. It is looking like to advance with some gap up today. A moderate resistance may come at 1813 levels also but that resistance can be bought by bulls. I am optimistic for this week.  If a dip has to come then also it will come second half of the week. There is nothing which can suggest sell except negative long – long negative divergence.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

22 November 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It was so rapid fall to break 6000. Now, do not short unless it breaks 5970 support band. We are just few days away from derivative expiry. Hoping for rebound today!!!

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 November 2013: -

On 21 November 2013, FII Sold INR 59.80 crs and DII Sold INR 650.66 crs

All has sold yesterday. Sell figures in cash market by FII is not surprising. Typically, those figures are just confusing for themselves. Now, suppose if it rebound from here then we can say that FII has sold in cash market on bottom day. Yesterday, I bought softly but I bought. I hope that 5970 will be saved. It is important to note that 5970 should be a strict stop loss for long which one is taking at lower levels.  

We are going to enter in derivative expiry week. This is giving me a sense that people should try to enter December month with some hope. Now, this hope is based on state assembly result which will come on 8^th December. This is going to be interesting expiry. Market is betting on BJP for their favour.

For today’s trading session, Nifty has support at 5970 to 5960 levels. Violation of this range will open space for 5900 to 5850 also. If it saves then we can expect a move towards 6060 to 6100 levels.

I will bet on steel stocks and few selected auto stocks for my list. I must say that comfort levels are not here to buy as of yesterday’s close. We need a higher close and fresh strength. So you still need to judge parameters during trading hours today.  

Visit again to read my intraday updates as I can update about those only during market hours.

Strategy for Nifty November future – NIFTY future is likely to open flat today. Immediate trading support will be at 6000 levels. Crossover of 6075 can give a clear buy. Till that time it will fluctuate up – down pattern. It means that range of 6000 to 6075 will just going to be a swing. I hope for higher break in second half which will come again after some consolidation. As long as 6000 holds, I will not short. 6000 to 5990 is a support band for Nifty November month future.

S&P 500 (USA) – I always believe that strongest bulls of the world are at USA only. They saved their market again. What does yesterday’s rebound means? I feel that it will surpass 1803 also and this time it may try to take a hit at 1824 to 1830. As long as 1776 to 1770 holds, it remains open for upward journey. Take this as fair way, bears has one day and bulls has five days kind of ratio. This ratio is perhaps best in US market only.   

Regards,

Praveen Kumar