23 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It has next resistance at 5870. We are close to make a small top but not yet confirmed. It requires the break below 5784 (strong support) to bet for some meaningful correction.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 23 April 2013: -

On 22 April 2013, FII bought INR 915.82 crs and DII sold INR 442.54 crs.

Money is again flowing into India. Nifty gained over 6.50% from its recent intraday low of 5477 levels. Nifty has critical resistance in the zone of 5830 to 5870. As shown in the given chart, 5870 is 61.80% of retracement against the fall from 6111 to 5477.

Market need to respond on the announcement done by CCI last night. Well, but there were no decision on coal pooling. We are entering in big – banking result from today onwards. HDFC Bank will prefer its figures today. Equally APPLE and AT&T will also present its figures today. Our market will take cues for further moves. Note that Cairn India has presented poor result.

India VIX goes higher by 5.60% yesterday but small cap and mid cap indices were on better relative gain. We have holiday tomorrow and day after tomorrow we have derivative expiry. Market is looking to change almost everything in past eight trading sessions. I do not think that market has any big short in the market now.  

A pullback is very likely after smart gain. It is still not clear if we got the top before pullback. I am repeating that it is banking stocks which have dominated in recent recovery. Bank Nifty has seen the rise over 16% in past few days and still there is no sign of any profit taking. If pull back comes then it may have money waiting to buy.

Politics can be capable to give shocking movement anytime. Take this as precaution as long as budget session run. Coal and 2 G scam is attracting politician again.

Strategy for Nifty April future – It was giving me a sense that it will respect the resistance at 5830 levels but it has broken higher in last 30 minutes of trading. Crossover of 5830 is giving hint for 5870 but we are heavily over bought now. I am expecting some pullback now before making further move. Well, derivative expiry will play its important role now. So, we can expect stiff technical resistance at 5870. Equally, as long as 5790 saves it may deny big for bears. A great down side break can come only if it sustain below 5790. Is it coming?   

S&P 500 – It hit 1548 before bounce yesterday. It has entered in the resistance of 1560 to 1565 levels. Futures makes a high when are trading and futures makes a low when US is trading. For us, it will open down. Yesterday’s rise has generated a pattern for bounce but as of now US and EU futures are trading lower. I want one close below 50 DMA but that has not come till now. It is fluctuating between 20 EMA and 50 DMA. Let us see the impact as almost every single Asian market is trading with softness now.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

22 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Nifty is on 8th day from its recent bottom and gained over 300 points to match rest of the globe. Pullback may end very soon but strong support at 5750-5725 now.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 22 April 2013: -

On 18 April 2013, FII bought INR 940.07 crs and DII sold INR 405.22 crs.

FII has started their buying again after sign for trading cut and trimming trade deficit data. At this point of time global market is again on gain backed by weaker yen. Japanese market moving higher at its 5 year’s high.

Well, budget session is beginning from today. Market is hoping for land acquisition bill to be passed. Expect massive sought on JPC report. I am scared that member of parliaments may not have time to discuss crucial bills which are need for economy.

India VIX has slipped over 6% on last trading session. It is looking that it will have support at 14.50 levels which should not be broken. Indian market has already retraced by 50% against the fall from 6111 to 5477. So, we are at mid-point of this fall. 61.80% retracement will give us almost 5870 levels which is next logical resistance.

Nifty has recovered 50% of its fall in just few trading days. I am expecting resistance in moving ahead but those are speculative views. I prefer to wait for the sign of tiredness and then for weakness. We will see crucial supports emerging at 5750 to 5725 zone which was resistance earlier. I am sure that rise will get sold very sooner by this week itself but we have derivative expiry too for this month of trades.

Politics can be capable to give shocking movement anytime.

Strategy for Nifty April future – It has surpassed the resistance of 5730 and came very close to 5800 levels. We may expect a positive opening but it will have a bigger threat to get sold at higher levels by today itself. Trading resistance for Nifty April month future is at 5830 levels. It will be better idea to switch towards May month series and prefer to cover option strategy of April month series. I feel that today’s high will remain the top for April series till derivative expiry.  

S&P 500 – It has traded below 1543 but seen immediate bounce. It was just typical one bull’s attempt. Weekly chart is hinting me for the beginning for selling. I am getting resistance at 1560-1565 itself. If I am right then US market will close on day’s low today. What we need is one close below 1543 and then we can expect a move towards 1510-1500 levels.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

18 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Global gloomy outlook is turning as setback for all global indices. Keep an eye on 5650 support, likely to be tested. If breaks then we can expect good dip. 200 DMA @ 5659.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 18 April 2013: -

On 17 April 2013, FII bought INR 206.68 crs and DII sold INR 260.93 crs.

I have already quoted as 5710 < 5730 as resistance. It hit a high at 5732 and then slipped. IMF has reduced global growth forecasts. We have seen bigger fall in European and American market last night. European markets were already down much when we closed. You can say that Indian market has sustained better yesterday comparing to Europe.

It seems that Indian market were relatively better choice on buy side. One must note that when Nifty was flat then also bank nifty was higher by 0.90%. So, it was over all banks who have dominated the uptrend without any weakness. It is the rate cut hope which has given recent boost. We have RBI monetary policy review on 03^rd May 2013, still a long way to go if global market remains scary.

Yesterday, VIX was higher by 0.70% when market closed dead flat. VIX is showing that rise must be very limited above 5700. We got exactly the expected outcome. We have some critical moving average falling to some important levels. 200 DMA is at 5659 and 20 EMA is at 5650 levels.

I am expecting soft opening then we must look for how market is going to react at 5650. If it breaks and sustain below 5650 then it will again open newer and lower zone for trades.

Specially note that CCEA meeting will be conducted today evening where market may expect some policy related decision. I can never bet on Indian policy makers. If it comes then good else same story will be repeated. There may be some decisions on land acquisition bill and some decision on relief package for exports.

Strategy for Nifty April future – It does not matter how it open. Important will be if it can break 5660. Further fall towards 5600 is expected on the break of 5660. Suppose, if it is not breaking 5660 then it will just turn choppy. Take a note that market will on long weekend now so some caution movement is expected in the second half and it will be in favour of European market trend. I will still say resistance at 5730 + levels and fall should come. Hope on CCEA may try to save some extent.

S&P 500 – I was expecting a washed out of Tuesday’s recovery. We got that and S&P 500 got exact support @ 50 DMA. It hit a low at 1543 which was nearer to 50 DMA. This is fine. Now, I will look for support at 1543 and break of 50 DMA will be next requirement for fall towards 1500. I am expecting this to happen tonight. Ben Barnanke is saying that economy is recovery but IMF has different words. Time has come to know the reality.

Regards,

Praveen Kumar

17 April 2013: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Cross-over of 5610 has given its typical rise towards 5700. It may extend more but fall is again very near from higher levels. I do not think we hit the bottom yet or recovery top yet.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 17 April 2013: -

On 16 April 2013, FII bought INR 591.75 crs and DII sold INR 204.89 crs.

We have seen massive recovery in Indian market and it denied all negative cues from USA. Prime reasons for this rise were hope of rate cut in up-coming monetary policy review and easing crude oil price. Hopes were also there from Reliance result which delivered good numbers after-market hours. Numbers are good but not good enough to see any good rise. (I would not surprise after moderate high and fall).

There were few remarkable formations yesterday. First is, Nifty moved above 200 DMA very easily. It was never looking like we were crossing 200 DMA. This is was a good part.

It is not that everything was good only. Look at India VIX. When Nifty gained by 2.30% VIX slipped only by 2.20%. This fall on VIX is not as per market movement. This indicates that traders are still fearful towards this rise. Now, suppose if VIX stay above 16 for today also then we might be near to another leg of sell off in coming few days.

Well, we have seen recovery in USA market last night but it is not generating pleasant development. If Indian market is rising on hope of rate cut then I must say that I am also expecting rate cut. I am saying one more thing that banking stocks has already done comparing to the hopes.

Corporate earnings in India are not as strong as USA. Indian market will soon begin the phase of underperformance. Today’s trading is crucial. I will look for follow up trading. Nifty will have trading resistance at 5710 < 5730 and then final at 5800 levels which I am not expecting to come.

Strategy for Nifty April future – Charts were demanding for trades below 5500 to go lower but that condition never came. Driven by banking index, it may try to maintain higher levels but we have gradual resistance at higher side. If you take rough calculation then you can observe that we got 250-300 points of recovery after each fall. In my view 5720-5725 is a critical zone of resistance. In the lower side if it sustain below 5675 for 5-10 minutes then we can see dip towards 5625 in few hours.

S&P 500 – A recovery came after Boston blast. Is it changing things a lot? In my view, this pullback cam for good for bears only. It may not be trap for bears like after-job-data rise. I am not expecting a re-test of higher levels like 1590. We are going to get a higher levels fall again. Surely, bears had not easy deal in past few months so traditionally this may test patience. If market get a bad after good day then things will be critical. Is it coming?

Regards,

Praveen Kumar