28 June 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 5th wave may not see any great extension. 5209 should remain untested. Sell on rise, SGX is hinting for 20-25 points’ higher start. Caution on expiry day is strongly advised.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

It was another expected dull day yesterday. Prime minister asked MoF to start with fire-bridge reforms. Will that enough to start with reforms? Looking on the history of UPA history, I am not hoping anything. These are just talk to boost the moral, nothing else.

Out come of euro summit – will again be nothing. I have lesser to believe and higher reason for ‘not’ to believe.

It is derivative expiry and we must just focus on technical charts. Waves are as following: -

Wave 1 – 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 2 – 4898.95 to 4847.70 = 051.25 points (Corrective down)

Wave 3 – 4847.70 to 5190.20 = 324.50 points (Up)

Wave 4 – 5190.20 to 5041.70 = 148.50 points (Corrective down)

Wave 5 – 5041.70 to 5194.60 = 152.90 points (Up)

(Wave 3) = 2.525* (wave 1) ~ 2.618*(wave 1) – This is key to plot this five wave. You cannot plot anywhere you want. You cannot violate basic rules to plot waves. This is most correct wave plotting in my view. More over, - (Wave 5) ~ > (wave 1) – a required condition. Break and trade below 5080 will surely push us lower any day any time.

For 28 June 2012 – trading strategy –

SGX is hinting for opening @ 5160+. It can give a push towards 5190 on NIFTY as well as NIFTY FUTURE. I am already saying that I am not the firm believer for the cross of 5209. So short on rise and keep stop loss @ 5209. No ‘if’, no ‘but’. Regular readers are fully aware that we were the first one to come out with importance of 5090. Look at now, everyone is talking.

In the above chart there is a charting formation, which is known as diamond chart formation. 80% of the time it favours bears. So the top of 5^th wave may/will not see extension. Even if it comes it will not see any greater extension. I will be surprised if it comes at 5250-5300.

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26 June 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: It is indicating for support at 5090-5080 from past so many days. As long as it holds it may try to extend fifth wave. Will it be another dull day?

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Yesterday was perhaps the dullest day of recent time. Now we are just one day away from derivative expiry. As of now, global market took a pause in fall. We are showing better relative strength from past few days. So will that relative strength convert to bull’s power? It is interesting to see.

I must tell you the reason for no weakness in stock market - Market is expecting that upcoming one month will be important for reforms as PM is taking charge of Finance ministry. Market is hoping a lot from the father of reforms Dr. Manmohan Singh. This is the prime reason that even I do not want too short this market immediately as our market runs on hopes. (Am I optimistic? No, not at all. I am not expecting anything from this government)

There is one concern which is bigger than any anther negative cues. It is –

IMD has warned that we may have weakest south-east monsoon of past 30 years. It is perhaps due to al-nino effect. Although al nino has resulted below normal monsoon by 17 out of 40 times. Warning is still a warning. Our nation is struggling with ‘inflation’ and poor monsoon can ignite inflation anytime. (One must note that I have already forecasted by 10-11% inflation by November 2012).

For today,

            I am again repeating for support at 5090. You know from when I am giving this level. Now almost every one is talking about this support. My study will remain same. Do not short near to 5100 levels as long as 5090 hold.

On higher side cross above 5136 (quoted yesterday and it seen one dip from 5134.55) will give us 5156 and then a move towards 5190 levels (not necessarily to be tested) but may not cross 5195.

Waves are as following: -

Wave 1 – 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 2 – 4898.95 to 4847.70 = 051.25 points (Corrective down)

Wave 3 – 4847.70 to 5190.20 = 324.50 points (Up)

Wave 4 – 5190.20 to 5041.70 = 148.50 points (Corrective down)

Wave 5 – 5041.70 to 5194.60 = 152.90 points (Up)

(Wave 3) = 2.525* (wave 1) ~ 2.618*(wave 1) – This is key to plot this five wave. You cannot plot anywhere you want. You cannot violate basic rules to plot waves. This is most correct wave plotting in my view.

More over,

(Wave 5) ~ > (wave 1) – a required condition

Break and trade below 5080 will surely push us lower today.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

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Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

26 June 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Read 5 wave development on charts. Baby step reforms will not help us. Government must bring more and market is still hopeful (but I am not). Support range 5090-5080.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Important development of charts –

• Nifty has 38.20% resistance @ 5209 (from 5630 against the rise from 4531 to 5630). We have seen fall from those resistance with high @ 5191. (remain untested even after yesterday’s efforts).
• 5029 – It is 38.20% of rise against 4770 to 5191.
• 5080 – Mid point of 5631 to 4531, hence a critical support. Some retrenchment is giving 5090 also. So the range is 5090-5080 as support. 

 Nifty has crossed 5191 for few minutes yesterday and then slipped with a confirmation on chart tat 5209 is not an easy kind of resistance to cross. Thanks to baby step reform by government of India. I am sure that blind optimism will drive till next monetary policy.

With yesterday’s top I am in the position to plot this as five rising waves. I must say that no matter what is happening in domestic and global front but charts are yet having strength. Wave are as following: -

Wave 1 – 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 2 – 4898.95 to 4847.70 = 051.25 points (Corrective down)

Wave 3 – 4847.70 to 5190.20 = 324.50 points (Up)

Wave 4 – 5190.20 to 5041.70 = 148.50 points (Corrective down)

Wave 5 – 5041.70 to 5194.60 = 152.90 points (Up)

(Wave 3) = 2.525* (wave 1) ~ 2.618*(wave 1) – This is key to plot this five wave. You cannot plot anywhere you want. You cannot violate basic rules to plot waves. This is most correct wave plotting in my view.

More over,

(Wave 5) ~ > (wave 1) – a required condition

Break and trade below 5080 will surely push us lower today.

I have said that as long as 5090 sustain we can expect the extension towards 5209 or closer. I have considered that yesterday’s move was just one of that attempts which failed.

Now for today –

Once again keep an eye on 5090-5080 as support. If it breaks then we will see fall towards 5029 and then perhaps break of 5000 psychological mark.

On higher side 5136 will be a tougher resistance to cross. Few days back I said that above 5100, it is a sell-on-rise market. What we are getting is just the confirmation of that. It is not easy to stand or taking short in even flows.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

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Mobile number – 09893369889

25 June 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Quoted support @ 5090, it has saved so advance will continue up to 5209. Cross over will generate target @ 5250 levels. Is the CRR cut coming? Must watch USD vs INR too.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Important development of charts –

• Nifty has 38.20% resistance @ 5209 (from 5630 against the rise from 4531 to 5630). We have seen fall from those resistance with high @ 5191.
• 5029 – It is 38.20% of rise against 4770 to 5191.
• 5080 – Mid point of 5631 to 4531, hence a critical support. Some retrenchment is giving 5090 also. So the range is 5090-5080 as support. 

Once again, our quoted support of 5090 saved and Nifty rebounded. It came higher and closed near 5150 levels. Now when FM himself quoted for major announcement for Monday then I am sure that markets will remains stronger on speculations. 

I am quoting from past few days,

“I have to give you alter sense, suppose if we kept on trading above 5040-5029 after all odd then it must force every technician to bet for the fresh wave of rise which can end up somewhere in this way –

5040 + 420 (rise from 4770-5190) = 5460. Or it can move 38% (5200), 50% (5250) or 62% (5300) advance pattern. These are possibilities and I am not very sure about that. Let us see.”

As long as things remain favourable we cannot expect any major correction. We can have many serious fundamental troubles but charts are not indicating any weakness yet. If market starts discounting bad new then it is itself the beginning of good move.

It is also true that there is no major participation from FII or DII side. In spite of that we may advance more after few days of choppy trades. I am keeping and advising to press stop loss at 5090-5080 levels.

Break and trade below 5080 will surely push us lower today.

My technical charts are suggesting that as long as we are above 5090 we can expect 5209. Cross of 5209 will give us 5249 then 5280 + levels too.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

(If you think that other readers should also read this article then recommend this on google by clicking g+ link given below).

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

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Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889