DOW JONES (TECHNICAL VIEW AS OF 11 JAN 2012)

Two and half months back, I have quoted that Indian market will remains a bigger under performer compared to US indices. We have seen the expected fall in equity price in India. Meanwhile US indices kept on shooting up. I believe that whole world is experiencing some great changes.

Dow Jones has almost traveled nearly 1000 points from its November 2011 lows. Right now this index is showing great strength and there is no doubt about that. On daily chart we have some reverse H&S pattern with nick line near 12300. Somehow we kept on trading at these levels from past 7 trading days. It’s true that the target indicated by those reverse H&S pattern is as high as 13200+ levels. Are we going to see that kind of rise? May be yes but we cannot ignore the development on RSI.

Considering reverse H&S pattern and RSI, I feel that we have a breakout point at 12600 levels. If fall has to come then we are on perfect time and perfect levels.

Crossover of 12600 will guide Down Jones towards 13200-13400 levels. I cannot dare to short above 12600 levels. 

Why I am not betting for that rise?

It is itself great to see that it is already trading well above 200 days moving average and giving a feeling like Bull Run. Fundamentals are not justifying for rise immediately. With so much of concerns, it’s really hard to believe.

My conclusion is - if should break in just 3-4 trading sessions more. Close below 12200 will be first sign of some profit taking.

In my next articles I will explain the things based on wave theory.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY - Technical views as on closing 11 Jan 2012

Two days back I have updated that it cannot be good to hold short if NIFTY spot manages to stay above 4801 levels.

Next obvious question is about the magnitude of the rise. We are just on the verge of 50 days moving average which is running near 4877-4876. Charting suggests that we will see stiff technical resistance near those levels. Thats the reason I have quoted tomorrow that it may not be easy for NIFTY to move beyond 4880.

From the levels of 4876- two possibilities arises. 

 Possibility 1 (Bullish) : If we manage to stand above 4880 then we can expect rise to be extended towards 4940-4949, which is 100 days moving average and the higher end of gap fill which is indicated in the given chart. In the bullish possibility, Nifty must break 4880 (this condition is to be applied above 4880 only) and then try to hit 4940-4949. We may expect consolidation in those ranges before shooting upwards with great denial for any fresh fall. 

 Possibility 2 (Bearish) : This possibility will arises on the failure of 4880 or you can say on the failure of bulish possibility. We are already trading close to 4880. Charts suggests that to be on safer side one should opt this possibility only when Nifty sustain below 4801, which is nothing but previous breakout point. We may see some consolidation below 4801 and then a fall. Major support will run near 4680 levels which can be a concluded target.

Its still hard to believe the beginning of sharp rise before quarterly result. Let us see. Today is also an important day.

If you want to know more details then mail me at praveen@viecapital.com

Thanks,

Praveen Kumar

ANANTRAJ - TECHNICAL STUDY for short term

This stock has moved higher after some better accumulation. Technicals are suggesting that it may advance further. In a rising index for short to medium term, this stock may try to hit levels near 60. One can use any dip to buy this stock.

Support - 50/48/46

Resistance - 54/58/60

NIFTY - 10 JAN'12- VIEWS BASED ON HOURLY CHART

The day it went above 4700, I have updated that the trading range of 4700 to 4800 is going to give us pain of choppy moves. We cannot speculate in this range. I want a real and clear cut break of the range of 4800 to 4680. Nifty has placed itself beautifully before earning seasions. As trading range is narrow so I chosse hourly study to get direction.

Trend line are suggesting me that if Nifty trade below 4720 today then we may see the test of 4680 or any nearer levels. In alter Sense on higher side, Cross over of 4801 may give you 30-40 points on positive side.

Nifty has not yet crossed 4800 levels. As long as Nifty sustain below 4800 we can just expect stiff resistance at those higher levels and it may see frequent dip from higher levels. If sustain below 4720 then it should fall. Well, but not really falling?

We are at the zone of "Make or Break".

Support - 4720/4680/4630

Resistance - 4783/4801/4848

Wait for my next post about daily chart.

Thanks,

Praveen Kumar