NIFTY DERIVATIVE ANALYSIS for 21 April 2025

 Hello everyone, 

Open Interest (OI) & Put-Call Ratio (PCR)

• Futures OI: Increased by 14.18%, indicating fresh positions being added.

• Calls: 96.3 million contracts. Call OI: Rose by 5.68%.

• Puts: 110.5 million contracts. Put OI: Surged by 18.78%, suggesting a stronger build-up on the put side

• Put-Call Ratio (PCR): 1.15​. A PCR above 1 indicates a higher accumulation of put options compared to call options, suggesting a bullish sentiment among traders. ​This data suggests a bullish undertone, with significant activity in puts indicating traders are hedging or anticipating potential downside protection. ​

  Key Strike Prices & Open Interest Levels

  • Highest Call OI:

    • 24,000 CE: 53.6 million contracts. Highest call OI, indicating strong resistance

    • 24,500 CE: 36.7 million contracts. 23,500 and 23,800 strikes: Notable call writing, reinforcing resistance zones.​

  • Highest Put OI:

    • 23,000 PE: Significant accumulation. Significant put OI, suggesting strong support.

    • 23,300 PE: Notable interest. 22,500 and 22,000 strikes: Additional support levels based on put writing.​

    These levels indicate strong resistance around 24,000 and solid support near 23,000. ​These levels are critical for traders to watch, as they often act as psychological barriers and can influence market direction. ​

  • Futures Pricing

    • Nifty April Futures: Closed at 23,848.90, slightly below the spot price of 23,851.65, indicating a minor discount. ​This small discount suggests a neutral to mildly bearish short-term outlook among futures traders.

    • Interpretation & Strategy

      • Market Sentiment: The elevated PCR and substantial put OI at lower strikes reflect a cautiously bullish stance among market participants.​

      • Resistance Levels: The accumulation of call OI at 24,000 and 24,500 suggests potential resistance zones.​

      • Support Levels: Strong put OI at 23,000 and 23,300 indicates robust support levels.​

      • Trading Strategy:

        • Range-Bound Approach: Consider strategies like Iron Condors or Butterflies between 23,000 and 24,000 to capitalize on the expected consolidation.

        • Breakout Strategy: If Nifty breaks above 24,000 with volume, bullish strategies like Bull Call Spreads could be effective.

        • Breakdown Strategy: A fall below 23,000 may warrant bearish strategies such as Bear Put Spreads.​
        • The derivatives data indicates a cautiously bullish sentiment:​
        • Bullish Indicators:
        • Increase in futures and put OI.
        • Rising PCR.​
        • Cautionary Notes:
        • Significant resistance at 23,500 and 24,000 levels. Potential for consolidation or pullback if these resistances hold.
        • • Trading Strategy Suggestions:

          • For Bullish Traders:

          • Consider bullish strategies like bull call spreads, especially if Nifty sustains above 23,500.​

          • For Cautious Traders:

          • Wait for a clear breakout above 24,000 before entering aggressive long positions.​

          • For Bearish Traders:

        • Monitor for signs of reversal near resistance levels to consider short positions, with tight stop-losses.​

Indian Stock Market Weekend Analysis 18 April 2025

On April 17, 2025, Indian stock markets experienced a significant rally, with both the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 indices rising nearly 2%, marking their best weekly performance in over four years. 

Key Factors Behind the Market Surge:

1. Robust Foreign Portfolio Inflows: Foreign investors purchased over $1 billion worth of Indian equities over the last two trading sessions, bolstering market sentiment and contributing to the rally. 

2. Weakening U.S. Dollar: The U.S. dollar's persistent weakness, despite hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, benefited Asian currencies, including the Indian rupee, which appreciated about 0.8% to settle at 85.3675 against the dollar. 

3. Strength in Financial Stocks: The financial sector led the gains, with a notable 6% surge, indicating strong investor confidence in this segment. 

4. Positive Global Cues: Global markets were buoyed by China's announcement of fresh measures to revive consumption and expectations of interest rate cuts in the United States, which collectively improved investor sentiment worldwide. 

5. Technical Breakouts: Technical analysts observed that the indices broke through key resistance levels, triggering further buying and momentum in the markets. Breakout above 23500 was crucial one. 

These combined factors contributed to the strong performance of Indian equities on April 17, 2025

Banking stocks surged on April 17, 2025, mainly due to a combination of favorable domestic and global cues that boosted investor confidence in the sector. Here's why they led the rally: Key Reasons Banking Stocks Rose:

1. Strong Foreign Inflows into Financials:

• A large portion of the $1+ billion in foreign portfolio investment went into banking and financial stocks.

• FIIs typically favor Indian banks for their stability, profitability, and exposure to economic growth.

2. Improved Liquidity and Earnings Expectations:

   • The expectation of strong Q4 earnings, especially from private banks, increased bullish sentiment.

   • Investors are anticipating credit growth to remain healthy due to rising consumption and investment trends.

3. Falling Bond Yields and Interest Rate Optimism:

• Global sentiment shifted slightly dovish on rates despite Fed’s hawkish tone.

• Lower bond yields improve banks' investment book valuations and ease funding costs

4. Appreciating Rupee:

   • A stronger rupee (thanks to a weakening dollar and higher inflows) reduces pressure on inflation and imports—both good signs for banks, which are sensitive to macroeconomic conditions.

5. Technical Momentum:

• Many bank stocks broke above key resistance levels, triggering short covering and fresh buying.

• Bank Nifty itself showed technical strength, attracting momentum traders.

6. Domestic Confidence Ahead of Elections:

   • Stability in the political outlook and expectations of policy continuity also encouraged bets on banks, which are seen as core economic proxies.

NIFTY 21 APRIL 2025 - Now, 23500 should act as strong support. Not advocating to hold anything overnight.

 

Hello everyone, 

Thus, we witnessed the most intense 2000-point surge on the Nifty. The Nifty is currently trading at 23850. Please check the preceding chart, which shows that the Nifty has twice reached its highest point from those levels.

I advise fresh long to proceed with caution, but I do not advise short. This time, we are crossing or attempting to cross 23850 with the strongest momentum, which is my main justification for not producing shorts.
If the Nifty is able to successfully break through this resistance level, we might be in rally mode. The same energy that propelled the Nifty to its fastest 2000 points can also set a new record high for you.

Or, if it must malfunction, it might occasionally malfunction close to 24000 levels. We must therefore be in watch mode. Since the situation is unclear, I won't be sending anything overnight.

We observe the start of a subsequent level of decline where the rally fails or momentum slows down. Never forget that fear never goes that smoothly.

I found 23500 to be a crucial source of support for the time being.

NIFTY 17 APRIL -INTRADAY - 23500 is demanding figure on Nifty now. What if it can sustain above this levels?

 

Hello everyone, 

The current value of the Nifty is 23400. I've been quite effective in saving support for 23260 and 23190. The ratio of advance decline is 1455-1063. It is demonstrating its strength quite obviously. A 15-minute chart that displays a greater variety of deals is shown above.

I have been stating for the previous few days that I am anticipating a test approaching 23500. Note that if it can maintain above 23500, then I have every reason to think that it will move towards 23800 to 24000 levels.

However, everything hinges on the eagerly anticipated test and crossover. After the extreme panic last week, it is encouraging to see the respect that supports are receiving. 

NIFTY 17 APRIL 2025 - Get ready to have a litmus test on Nifty at 23500 levels. One must wait before adding long.

 

Hello everyone, 

As of now, I have few important points here.

Firstly, Nifty April future is trading at discount. 

Secondly, Nifty spot is very close to 38.20% retrechment levels which is at 23482 as of now. 

My next concern is that there aren't many stocks that are encouraging me and could serve as market catalysts whenever the market recovers.

In addition, I do not advise shorting this market until there is a breakout. Await the 23190 level break. For traders, it is very difficult to sit without a position, but one should perform this difficult task at this time.


The US market is still unsure. I anticipate a lot of downward revisions from the brokerage. 

NIFTY 16 APRIL 2025 - It is a very risky zone to trade on long side unless it goes above 200 DMA.

 

Hello everyone, 

This is a solid and balanced technical outlook. Here's a summary with a bit of added structure and commentary to make it more actionable:

---

Nifty Technical View – Near 23,350

Resistance Zone:

• The index is hovering around 23,350, which aligns with a historical resistance zone (notably the Trump tariff top).

• A move to 23,500 is plausible but might be a bull trap, given how markets often behave around key psychological and historical levels.

Support Zone:

• Key support lies at 23,200–23,100. A break below this zone could trigger selling pressure.

• Until then, there is no compelling reason to go short just based on resistance.

Fibonacci Level:

• The 38.2% retracement of the recent fall sits near 23,480, a critical level to watch.

• Nifty may test it or reverse just shy of it—typical of markets teasing technical zones.

Derivatives Data:

• Current F&O setup favors bulls, suggesting underlying strength.

• However, sustained momentum and confirmation of a fresh rally would only come above 23,800–24,000.

Ideal Market Behavior:

• Best scenario in current conditions would be range-bound consolidation, allowing for sectoral rotation and healthy digestion of gains.

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Would you like me to track or update this outlook with live data or help build a trade plan based on different scenarios (range play, breakout, breakdown)?

NIFTY 15 APRIL 2025 - We cannot ignore 800 points of gap on higher side in past two trading session which is still unfilled.

 A gap of 800 points on the higher side over the past two sessions in NIFTY (as of 15 April 2025) is significant and can't be ignored from a technical analysis perspective.

ChatGPT said:

That’s a sharp and balanced market take — nicely laid out!

Here’s a quick summary of your view, just to organize it a bit more for clarity or sharing if needed:

---

Market Technical Outlook (Intraday View):

• Support Zone:

  • Key support seen around 23,200–23,100.

  • Holding this range is crucial for any short-term strength.

• Resistance Levels:

  • Immediate intraday resistance at 23,400.

  • Major resistance / “litmus test” sits at the 200 DMA (~23,650) — a critical level to watch for directional clarity.

• Strategy Outlook:

  • Avoid fresh long positions until a meaningful pullback or consolidation is seen.

  • Market is still prone to extreme volatility; stability is needed for confidence in sustained upside.

DJIA - Bottoming out or preparing for fresh sell off??? It's at crucial week.

 

Hello everyone, 

It sounds like you're analyzing the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from a technical standpoint. Here's a brief breakdown of what you're pointing out:

Key Points:

1. Follow-Up Week:
   This typically suggests a continuation or confirmation of a move—often in the context of a potential rally after a bottom. Traders watch for increased volume and price movement to validate strength.

2. Resistance Ahead:

   • 200-Day Moving Average (DMA):
     A major long-term indicator. When the price approaches the 200 DMA from below, it often acts as a strong resistance level. Many traders and algorithms watch this closely.

   • Bottom of Double Top Formation:
     If the DJIA previously formed a double top, the lower horizontal line (support turned resistance) becomes a key level to watch. A failure to break above it may lead to a bearish turn.

#Nifty - What's coming for the week 15 April to 18 April? Rise or fall?

Hi everyone,

Last week's life-time single-day spike on #Indiavix showing a severe panic. It's all because of #Trumptariff.

Until, Nifty breaks 21000 (which is 20% correction from top), I cannot name it as bear market. 

That shock, which I believe continues to linger with, occurred a week ago. What comes next is a big question. I'm attempting to respond with basic technological analysis techniques.

Make a few notes. -

Indian market may be the least affected, but sentiment cannot be entirely isolated, so we may give it a 60% likelihood of experiencing a worldwide recession. Be aware that while the Indian market has several issues, corporate profits are the primary one. The #Nifty's climb this week might be restricted to the upper side. At the moment, #GIFTNIFTY is trading above 23300 levels.

 Charts include several important levels.

The #NIfty50 200 WMA falls between 23650 and 23700. It is therefore essential.

If you examine the decline from 26277 to 21743, you will see that 38.20% of the retrenchment occurs at 23490 levels.

Two trend-changing peaks were observed recently, both close to 23850.

We must therefore take into account that the 23500–23800, or 23900, range will encounter significant obstacles. Currently, there is no assurance that the market will test the levels because the general atmosphere is negative.

We can wait to see how the market responds from anywhere around 23500. Avoid purchasing, at the very least. 

Which scenario is best for bulls?

I know from past experience that a lot of alarming things appear in both the fundamental and chart near the panic bottom. If the market consolidates for a few days before rising, I predict a 20% rally based on present levels. For a few weeks, this consolidation might go on. If so, the low of 21750 needs to be preserved. Prior to the last support, a few crucial supports are 22700 and 22200. 

What if it must collapse next?

If so, the collapse might start right now and react at 23500 or reach its maximum at 23850.