NIFTY 30 SEPTEMBER 2021 : 17600 is make or break support. Expect expiry volatility but avoid short at lows.

 

Good morning friends, 

I have a view. Market always depends on follow up of the trend. If this bullish trend has to continue then buyer has to emerge at support levels. One such meaningful support is at 17600 levels. 

As long as it is staying above 17600, we can expect a move towards all time high. I am not claiming that it will cross or not. 

Another big question is will it save 17600?

We can feel lot of if and but continues here. 

For todays trading session, I am getting technical sense of support emerging at lower levels. As of now SGX Nifty is giving a hint at lower start. 

We have monthly expiry today and that will add spice to the volatility. One must avoid shorting at lower levels and near to support of 17600 unless it broke decisively.  

We have seen sharp up and down in recent days. 

Be careful 

Happy and profitable trading. 

NIFTY 28 SEPTEMBER 2021 : We are on most crucial day for continuation of rally. 18000 looks phychological.

 

Good morning friends, 

At the time when it was looking all set to get a top, Nifty saved from lower levels. We got a fairly ok kind of close. 

Nifty closing at 17850 levels which is leaving people confused again. I took a fresh look on chart and feeling that as long as Nifty is staying above 17800-17750 levels, it may not be easy for any pullback. Hence, it may be hard to talk for top. 

I am not giving my trading view for today. I prefer to watch only. For support, Nifty may be looking at 17800 and there is no resistance We can say 17900-17950-1800 but practically it has yet to confirm. Momentum is only driving force. 

Do not short low, around 17800 without breakout. Do not trade long at top around 17930 levels. 

happy Trading. 

NIFTY 27 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Looks like NIFTY will open at 18000 levels. Can it invite some nervousness?

 

Good morning friends, 

It doesn't make sense to present any analysis as SGX Nifty is showing opening around 18000 levels which is nearly 150 points up. 

It is too much levels to say to stay long. Even if I try I may be scared to be on long side. Normally, Nifty used to experience correction around phycological figures. 

I plotted 17 DMA on above chart. Normally, market used to take support at these levels and used to correct whenever it goes too far from 17 DMA. 

With a gap up we will be at 550 points away from 17 DMA which should normally invite correction. 

Hence, I will not prefer to trade long today. 

This rally may soon come under gravity. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 23 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Looks like uptrend remains intact even after fed tempering announcement.

 

Good morning friends, 

I was expecting this rebound and caution too. Fed has given its view for tempering and interest rate. You all must be knowing so far. I am here to give technical views and market dynamics. 

Somehow, it is looking to move up but up move will face troubles at top. Only question is that if it get trouble near 17800. 

I am not advising short by looking in to pattern. Today is derivative expiry and market is likely to go up and if downside comes that will be a surprise. 

I am not getting great conviction that we made a short term top. In pure technical term, as long as Nifty is staying above 17200, rise is likely to continue. 

Worse part is that whenever Nifty takes gap opening. It spoil majority of trade. Nifty can open around 17650 as indicated by Nifty then fresh long may not be possible. 

Happy Tradaing. 

NIFTY 22 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Now bounce to come on towards 17625. Volatility will be main feature.

 

Good morning Friends, 

Above is 15 minutes of Nifty. Do not be surprise by seeing pattern. I have a purpose of posting such chart as reversal is better appearing on above chart. You can notice that this reversal is coming after a reversal H&S pattern. 

Most of secular trend from bottom yesterday was outcome of above pattern. 

Big question, can this continue today?

For today: - Well, most logical target that is looking based on chart is 17625. 

Support is at 17440 and that's keep us mid way. So it is going to be volatile. Expect up and down but I will give edge to bulls. 

Short term outlook : - It is looking like this market came lower to go up in short term and hence 17792 may not be final top. Who knows if Nifty go around 19000 also before decisive top. I just do not want to think what can be stock valuation. I am not in the mood to invest as I am also scared on fundamental uncertainty. 

Happy Trading. 

Market may remains sidewise for few days

NIFTY 21 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Only predictable factor is volatility. Support 17200 - Resistance - 17450- 17500

 

Good morning friends, 

It was real shaky day yesterday and Nifty slipped from higher levels. Technical charts are showing signs of trouble but it still has to break key support of 17200. 

17792 is a short term top. World is eyeing on china trouble and US fed tempering. Fine, I do not prefer to watch news flow but that's concerning. 

As per the charts are concern we can sense a test of 17200 levels sooner or later. 

We are two day away from derivative expiry. This can add spice in volatility. 

Let us see how market react at higher levels. Remember, Nifty goes in green yesterday and then slipped. It was a tremendous day. So, why it can't repeat today. 

Happy trading. 

NIFTY 20 SEPTEMBER 2021 : So 17792 NIFTY - this may be the top for the time begin.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

I have already expressed a view that correct may not come with pause. Correction will come with quick and big three four candles. 

It is looking like Nifty is going to be behave in same way. If you remember, when Nifty came at 17440, it failed to make big red candle. 

This is the time when we saw big red candle. So what's for the day?

One thing is for sure that we can see extreme volatility with negative biasing. Nifty can come near 17450 and if breaks then 17260. 

If retailer get panic then we can see panica fall also. Sharp rally used to get follow up as panic fall. Well, and this rally was too sharp to believe. Panic bottom based on Elliott wave can be 17000 > 16700>15900.

Short term view - Take a note - 17792 is the top for time being. Once this fall is over then once gain it can pick momentum to form double top. Fine, bottom will not come too early. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 17 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Nifty is ready for another GAP UP backed by BANK NIFTY which is backed by GoI announcement on bad banks.

 

Good morning friends, 

You must have heard the news. If not then this is here. 

The Union Cabinet on September 16 approved a government guarantee of up to Rs 30,600 crore for security receipts to be issued by National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd (NARCL). Security receipts represent an undivided right or interest in a financial asset. Typically, asset reconstruction companies or a bad bank buy distressed assets paying 15 percent cash and the balance 85 percent in security receipts.

Addressing a press conference, the FM said, "We are also setting up an India Debt Resolution Company Ltd to manage the Non-Performing Assets (NPAs). In this company, public sector banks (PSBs) and state-owned financial institutions will own 49% stake." She added that private sector banks will also hold a stake.

Fine, this will give gap up for BANKNIFTY for sure. Ethically, I do not like such steps by government. Bad business should not be compensated by tax payer's money. 

Well, what's the key for today then?

17700 is definitely coming. It is going to be another all time high and definitely the unexpected levels by many all time bulls. 

So far, so quick and so big. Too to good to believe and too sharp. Its scary rise. 

Not advising long, not advising short either. 

Today is wait and watch day. 

Big question, when will the market fall?

"The day least people will expect about it." Take a note, if fall comes, it will wipe out 800-1000 points in quick time when ever it come (means in 4-5 candles). It does not mean it is coming today or tomorrow. Neither I am recommending shorts. I am giving a warning prospect for bulls. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 16 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Looks like NIFTY will never ever correct. Can weekly expiry be spoilsport?

 

Good morning friends, 

First of all, it is looking like Nifty will never correct. Look at above chart pattern on daily chart. It has a flag pattern and breakout. This is a kind of pattern which has a history of denying correction. Even if correct comes it will not noticeable enough. 

Look at magnitude of rally. So far, we witness rally of 2000 points in on go. It has started from 15500 from 28 July. So in just 1.5 months it came at 17500. 

More than joy, it looks scary now. 

Option data is just not greatly in favour of such rally but every technical charts sought for Buy - Buy - Buy. 

Now, trader has take a call what to listen. Risk reward is alarming. It is mainly new investors money which run even with this risk. This can be only propelling force. 

Someday Some time market will come under gravity and it will deny all technical indictor for fall. 

I just prefer to stay out and watch it from outside rather than participating. 

What's for the day?

Resistance - 17600 (Based on option data, due to expiry)

Support - 17450 (Based on charting and option data)

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 15 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Outcome of consolidation is required to know to trade next move. Resistance - 17430-17440

 Good morning Friends, 

Yesterday it opened higher and then gave up from higher levels. Well, that is not important. What is happening now is more important. US market slipped over 300 points but SGX Nifty has denied everything and looking for some higher opening. 

That's jittery. 

Above is hourly chart. It is showing the formation of double top and double bottom so far. The range between 17440 to 17260 may remain indecisive to trade. 

What's technical charts are saying for the day?

It was looking for down till yesterday's close. We should have seen levels of 17330-17300 at least but I am not able to figure out after gap up. It should not go beyond 17430 levels. 

My view remains same. Resistance @ 17430-17440 and then a slip from high. 

If able condition does not full fill then I will not trade. 

Happy Trading

NIFTY 14 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Nifty likely to open higher but caution needed near 17430 levels.

 

Good Morning friends, 

Nifty saw a good dip yesterday in first half. It took support near 17280 with a pin point low at 17270 levels and then rebound. Now, Nifty is like to take a gap up opening as I can see SGX Nifty right now. 

Well, I am firm on my view that Nifty is very near to come. It may here and there from current levels but I cannot able to point the levels yet. 

Near to 17430, it may not be wise to trade long unless we get a strong to very strong breakout. Technical support will be at 17360-17350 levels after opening. 

One must note down that key support is still at 17280-17270 levels. This can make market too volatile if it starts coming down from resistance which is likely to happen. 

If my trading strategy of expecting weakness at high does not work then I may not opt to trade. 

Lastly, it shouldn't be compulsion to trade daily. 

Happy trading. 

NIFTY 13 SEPTEMBER 2021 : This is most crucial week of current upside. CAUTION NEEDED.

 Good morning friends, 

A big question that is running in everybody's mind is, "When will correction come?" It doesn't matter weather you are bull or bear but this is a genuine question to ask. 

The way I am reading the chart, we may see a possibility of correction sooner. It may come by this week or next week or week after but it is a over due correction and market dynamics will force market for a correction. 

For today's trading, I picked two important resistance, 

Resistance 1 = 17380, 

Resistance 2 = 17440.

Crucial supports are as follows

Support 1 = 17280

Support 2 = 17230

I favour bears today. Nifty is likely to hit the support zone but market nature will be volatile to extremely volatile. 

Do improvisation during trading hours. 

Happy trading  

NIFTY 09 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Weekly expiry will add only spice to volatility. Key point 17280.

 Good morning friends, 

Today is weekly expiry day. Once again, it is going to play its role with both side swings with volatility and that volatility is opportunity. Opportunity to make money and equally if you wrong it will be opportunity to loose money. So, handle this volatility with extreme care. 

I quoted 17280 as support yesterday, please check yesterday's low. It hit 17280 and gave a dead cat bounce of nearly 100 points. 

What's for today?

Well, opening may be soft today which is definitely going to happen first time in past many days. There is no big logic. I am just watching SGX Nifty. 

After opening market may try to give some push by bulls power but that may not last longer. Eventually, 17280 may be under test again. 

Now, key point of trading will come at 17280. Will it make or break?

To me it is looking like a over all negative day by close. 

Now a big question which most people asked me.

Will market ever break 17000?

Fine, dear friends, believe me this market will not only break 17000 but also 16000 but that doesn't mean that you short today or tomorrow. Market used to carry over valuation for long time. When it correct it self, it will correct in brutal manner. It is your duty to save your money. This is what market is all about. 

I used to take day by day progress. In recent days I saved my self and many by not shorting or stopping others from shorting. 

Long is not my choice at these valuation. 

Happy Ganeshchaturdashi in Advance to you and your family members. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 08 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Near Weekly expiry day will give a day with full of swings. Band - 17436 to 17280.

 

Good morning friends, 

We saw Nifty again topping at 17430 resistance levels. To be precise, high was at 17436 levels which as a result of pull back after initial fall. This is remarkable that it hit another new life time high yesterday but hardly noticed. 

Yesterday's move has confirmed that 17430- 17436 is decisive resistance. As long as it is not making another life time high, this market will be under threat of profit taking. 

What's key for the day?

Tomorrow is derivative expiry. This can be possible spoil sport for either bear or bulls or may be both. I am expecting a day with full of intraday swings. On higher side 17430 may also be again under test while on lower side, it can it may test 17300-17280 support band. 

For investment, I feel terrible looking valuations. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar 

NIFTY 07 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Nifty should now go in pause mode. 17430 will be decisive resistance.

 Good morning Friends, 

So the dream run continues on Nifty. Well, but now we can expect Nifty likely to take breather. I see 17430 as immediate resistance. One thing is clear that above 17430, it can hit 17500 levels too. 

What is the possibility of price correction?

Fine, it is not easy to make a perfect timing. So far, there is no single technical indication of correction. Only thing that I can say is that it is heavily over bought. 

When will it correct?

Sooner but I cannot suggest any timing. So far, it looks like even a negative close is difficult. 

One thing is clear, correction will not come with warning sign. 

It will come all of sudden, when ever comes. 

Support for the day is 17330, below which .... can it really fall without recovery?

Happy Trading, 

NIFTY 06 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Nifty may be near short term top. It may be here and there. Confirmation awaited.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Nifty zoomed above 17300 +. It is easy to say that market is in full momentum but technical indicators are running with huge divergence. I plotted 20 DMA in above daily chart. You can observe that it is running with wild gap. Normally, price follow moving average sooner or later. 

Question is, is this market running normal? It is running with too sharp rise. Perhaps something which no one has ever saw. 

I am still not short but it seems top may come by this week itself. It is not wise to buy anything at this kind of valuation. 

For trading, there is still no point to short. If you buy then also you may be in fear. 

I am just extending my holiday. After initial rise, market may give up its gain today. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 03 SEPTEMBER 2021 : Rise to continue for 17300. If fall comes, that will be surprise.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

I was not expecting this kind of derivative expiry. I was expecting volatile down but it was volatile up. Above is daily chart. Charts saying 100+ point of fresh up move. 

Well, the last 100 points run came too sharp to believe. I find my self fortunate that I am not dealing from past few days. I am preventing myself from being trap at top.  

In past more than a year, many retail investors has entered in to the market and it seems that market hold due to their buying. Do you know that retails participation is highest in trading volume. 

Valuation is sky high. get rid of temptation of two three months gain and comes out from investment. Sooner or later, it will end up ugly. 

Fine, let us talk about today, 

I would say, trend remains bullish and Nifty can able to absorb any initial fall if comes. Nifty may challenge 17300 levels. 

Candle patterns are bullish. If fall comes, it will be a surprise. 

Happy Trading

NIFTY 01 SEPT 2021 : Better than expected GDP data. Event done, be careful now.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

This is called euphoric run!!!

Is it fair run or unfair, that's definitely a different question and being a market participant, it's just not the point to think. If it is unfair run then market will itself correct it some time. 

Let us back to technical, 

The ease with which it has crossed above 17000 and closed above 17100, looks like nothing can stop it. I am going to read any indicator. 

It's now purely a momentum driven market where correction looks impossible. Do you know that charts never gave even a small short signal in past few days. Not even on 15 minutes charts. So, momentum is that much stronger. 

I am clueless how will it end. It is just reminding me December 2007. I am in money saving mode. I do not want to enter on either side. 

Valuations are expensive. 

For brave bulls, you have reasons to believe for 17200-17300. With the same reason why can't I say 18000 - 19000 even. (Please note, I am not claiming any figure, just asking). 

If money is the only criteria to buy then it's better to be safe. 

I am stopping shorting from past many days. Just a simple advise, unless market give a big red candle, don't short.

Don't even try to hunt for top to short. 

Happy Trading, I am again on holiday mode