NIFTY 31 AUGUST 2021 : Strong support @ 16700 now. Market to go on breather mode.

 Good Morning Friends, 

What a and really what a rise. Unbelievable. I am sure you would not have burnt your money by shorting. Fine, that was my aim. 

It was a tempting levels for bears. Well, what's next?

Fine, historically, whenever market used to get this kind of sharp rise through out the month then it used to correct on very next Tuesday after expiry. Today is that Tuesday. 

Hence, I have point to consider as day of correction. 

I definitely do not mean by anything close to say as trend reversal. It will be too early to say. I want to watch the day. Charts has a strong message for us that 16700 is a very very strong support. 

Happy Trading, 

NIFTY 30 AUGUST 2021 : Another Monday's GAP UP in line. Do not attempt shorting new all time high.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

In the last trading session, Nifty again took a sharp recovery from a pin point fall of morning hours. That's the important characteristic for now. 

We are going to see another gap up backed by strong rise in US market. SGX Nifty is giving a hint for gap up of nearly 100 points. 

BIG QUESTION - GAP up ke baad kya karen?

Well, in my view we cannot do much after such gap up. Traders must save their money. Do not short this market unnecessarily. You will only end of with frustrating loss. Never ever think to short a market which is constantly making new high. Do not look at fundamentals or any logic to support shorting at these kind of scenario. I am feeling like 2007. 

Important levels are - 16600-16570 as key support. As long as Nifty is above 16100, this market can witness rise only. 

Shall we talk about 17000 on Nifty???????

Prefer to be spectator, don't be player now. 

Happy Trading

NIFTY 27 AUGUST 2021 : Do not short until sell signal confirmed. Key support = 16600

 

Good Morning Friends, 

It was a resilient expiry. Isn't it? 

Traders were expecting fall but it didn't came. I was also ready for short but I again withdraw my decision and I may opt waiting for next week. 

Above it an hourly chart and momentum indicator are close to give sell but signal has not formed yet. Sooner or later it will come. 

I have a threshold of 16600 which was quoted yesterday also. Nifty took turn from that point itself. 

Even for today, if Nifty sustain below 16600 then we can expect profit taking. 

TAKE A CAUTION, DO NOT ADD SHORT TILL SIGNAL GET confirmed. Any market which run near all time high, may not give up so easily. 

Don't put your head why the hell it is not falling. Market never care reasons. 

Looks like a possible reason is disinvestment plan by GoI. Market always like such disinvestment plan. Hence, market may be refusing to fall. Well, I am not 100% sure. It is just a view which I am giving based on history. 

WAIT - WATCH - ENJOY and then TRADE. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 26 AUGUST 2021 : Looks like it has double top pattern at 16702 levels. CAUTION needed due to expiry.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

I have already shown you the hourly chart yesterday and above it updated hourly chart as per yesterday's closing. Few important point to observe is as follow - 

1. Divergence on RSI and MACD on hourly chart. It may be effective just below 16600 levels itself. 

2. Formation of double top at 16702 which is all time high. It is confirming the resistance at all time high. 

If things goes the way it is looking on technical chart then things are looking for an ugly expiry. I have a disclosure that I have no position on any stock. 

I am very much willing to add short if I get some confirmatory signal. 

Happy Trading

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 25 AUGUST 2021 : Nifty to retest all time high. Do not attempt easy shorting.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Market run with full of surprises in favour of bulls. I am happy to avoid this market. I cannot say it is tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Its easily in favour of bulls and crushed bears. 

Above is hourly chart of Nifty and one can easily observe huge divergence of MACD and RSI. So now, technical may not support this rally too much. 

Price action is strongly and very strongly in support of rally. This is enough to stop shorting. Remember, momentum is hugely in favour of bulls and this type of momentum can give any levels. 

Doesn't matter, I am still in holiday mode. 

Happy Trading. 

NIFTY 24 AUGUST 2021 : Mid cap and small cap indices are on warning note. Maintain distance from market.

 

Good morning Friends, 

Above is hourly chart on Nifty. First of all, it may show you the development of H&S pattern on hourly chart. Well, being bullish one can ignore this as it is above support of 16400-16370 levels. 

One thing that you cannot ignore is the under performance of mid cap and small cap indices. Even yesterday mid cap 50 index took fresh dip of more than 2%. 

That's alarming. 

I am not claiming fall today or tomorrow but fall may be unavoidable in near future. 

Maintain distance from market, it can burn money. This under performance is running from past one months. 

It is the time to pull money from market. Take a note, most fall used to come from extreme of optimism, just like now. 

As per technical is concern, I am not favour to short but maintaining holiday from market. 

Sit with cash and wait for opportunity. 

Happy Trading, 

NIFTY 20 AUGUST 2021 : Looks like top has done and market likely to test 16100 on formation of recent red candle.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

After a big rally of more than 1000 points on Nifty in past few days, we are going to see some correction. I have already informed about the formation of desired red candle on my twitter in the last trading session. 

SGX Nifty shows bloosbath. 

If you have short hold. 

If not then just watch. 

I am not recommending shorts on opening. I cannot deny possibility of recovery as bulls may not give so easily. 

Happy Trading, 

NIFTY 18 AUGUST 2021 : CAUTION REQUIRED at these kind of top, equally, do not short either.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

It is just too much and too sharp 1000 points run on nifty and these is no stopping at this moment. I warn from trading long and I warn from trading short either. It is better to sit on side line to wait and watch. 

Enjoy market just by watching, just the way I am doing. 

Jab tak strong signal nahi hoga, main short nahi karunga. (This will come with one big red candle on one day, may be today, tomorrow or anyday)

Who is buying? Well, no need to think, truth is buyers are strong enough to over power. 

Technical support is at 16480 and then at 16400. On higher side, these is no resistance. 

Today I say, Happy watching, 

NIFTY 17 AUGUST 2021 : Wait for one big red candle to say that it can correct. If it doesn't then it cannot correct.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

So finally, market has denied Afghan crisis. It is running with its own dynamics. This was my point yesterday. It is always better to follow chart than events. Afghan crisis is humanitarian crisis and I also condemn that. 

A complete nation is handed over to terrorists and world is just watching. Its a shame. Its a defeat of super power. 

Sooner or later it will be safe heaven for tourist terrorist. 

Shall I short market on just above logic? No is my answer. I am more concerned with underperformance of mid cap and small cap indices. 

Before top, usually, money goes out first from risky asset. This is showing that market has done with its risk apatite and sooner blue chip index will correct. 

Its does not mean, it will correct today or tomorrow. It may or may not be. Its medium term view. Market may advance on optimism and money flow. Retail traders and investors should maintain distance from market. 

 This is the kind of levels where retailers get trap. I have a sense, year 2022, may be a year of correction. 

For immediate technical,  wait for one big red candle to say for short term correction. You cannot short new or newer all time high. 

I am already maintaining distance from long trades too. 

Happy Trading, 

NIFTY 16 AUGUST 2021 : As long as Nifty is above 16160, Nifty up trend remains intact. CAUTION is still ON.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

In the last session it has moved above 16380 and then it has crossed 16500 also. In technical charts it seems extremely bullish and extended target can be as big as 17000 + levels. 

And then, Taliban returns, 

Fine, Shall we be worried?

I must tell you that market is driven by just one factor, that that is that buyers are ready to buy. So, its all about sentiments when news flow hits. 

A true bullish market is known to ignore bad news and reward good news. 

Best News and good news is that liquidity has potential to absorb all possible bad news. Do not build up short just by looking Afghan Crisis. 

Wait for market to react and then think accordingly. 

Market has ignore many such bad news in past.

Well, As per technical is concern, unless today's close goes below 16350, there will be no concerning formation on chart. 

I am already sitting with no position. So, I have time to watch - study and plan. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 13 AUGUST 2021 : There is a chance of sluggish move as rise extend. Resistance to emerge here and there near @ 16380 or at 16500.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Mid cap and small cap index rebounded from lows to out perform Nifty yesterday. A possible reason of fall has almost saved. Now, we should focus on Nifty technical levels. 

I have two important figures in mind. One is at 16380 and other at 16500. Nifty may turn heavy on any of these levels. 

Still, I must say that direction remains up as long as Nifty is trading comfortably above 16200 levels. 

Let us see if this moves for 16500 or correct from 16308. 

Happy Trading, 

NIFTY 12 AUGUST 2021 : Be CAUTIOUS at every rise now. Market dynamics are not greatly in favour of bulls

 

Good Morning Friends, 

I am not on short call yet but definitely issuing word of caution. Its easy to be bullish on all time high based on sentiment and money flow but some top deserve cation. Till, Small cap and mid cap indices were comfortable, I was long. 

Now, things are changing. Well, I need to see more confirmation but it seems money flow in small cap and mid cap has stopped. In fact, money is flowing out. Logic is, money outflow always starts from riskier asset. So, it seems its market call that stock price is riskier. 

Impact on blue chip stocks usually comes later. If such under performance continues then we can expect the expected impact anytime and anyday. 

I am stopping deals for myself for few days. Not in the mood to trade risk. Let us see how market respond. Price wise and indicator wise, no risk is visible yet as long as Nifty is above 16000 levels. 

Happy Trading

11 AUGUST 2021 : CAUTION requires and CAUTION demanded.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

As I said yesterday, I am repeating, we need caution from all long position from current levels. Its a history that blue chip index fall after fall in small cap and mid cap indices. 

Yesterday, NIFTY was up but small cap 100 and small cap 50 index was down by 2%. This was second day in row. 

Hence, it is alarming. 

I may plan to add shorts at higher levels with limited quantity and then will go for pyramiding. 

It looks like 16500 will act as zone of resistance. 

Fine, 15960 -15900 will be the crucial support but currently we are trading well above those supports. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 10 AUGUST : A breather near at 16300, in line with expectation. Support at 16100 to 16000 levels.

 

Good Morning Friends,

It was a perfect move yesterday with a top around 16300 levels and then a pull back. From past four trading session, it was 16300 with is on work. 

I am changing my instance. Have a look on small cap and mid cap indices. It has started under performing and this can be alarming sign. Remember, we are on top and top always demand caution. 

Well, we need to see fresh development. If this underperformance continues then we may get a top. 

What about 16500 target then?

Top can be here and there. We shall not be price specific. I am just trying to take cues from sentiment and apatite. 

Last aim is to make money and for that we need to identify trend. 

Happy trading,  

NIFTY 09 AUGUST 2021 : Nifty can take a pause here but it may not break 16000 levels.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Its at all time high and hence there is no resistance on higher side. I am taking cues from derivative data. Option buildup is confirming for the range of 16500 to 16000 levels. 

I am considering 16100 to 16000 as important support and it is not likely to break this level. This should be considered as pullback only. 

It is going to be interesting to see how Nifty reacts on support. I had considered 16300 as important levels and pause is coming from nearby levels. 

My take is a pullback and then 16500. Well, it's just a view so far. I will add trades depending on how market reacts at those levels. 

Happy Trading,

NIFTY 05 AUGUST 2021 : Resilient NIFTY can still have enough fuel. Looks like every pull back will be bought.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

What a week going on for Nifty. went up and sustained at up. This is a sign of strength. Do not think of price correction. It is looking like that every pullback will be bought. Bulls are ready. 

I must add, just like what 15600 has does in past month, will be done by 15900 levels now. As long as it is above 15900, do not think to short this market. 

In fact, after this breakout prefer to trade long on every pullback. 

The target which is in mind is something near to 16300 and then at 16500. These can be speculative target based on option build up. 

Exhaustions will come at some levels but that level may not be this one. 

Happy trading,  

NIFTY 04 AUGUST 2021 : Finally after two months NIFTY broke the range on higher side. Expect 16300-16500 now.

 

Good Morning friends, 

Finally, waiting end yesterday and Nifty broke on higher side. It has traded above 15960 and then bounced almost by 150+ points in a single day. 

What is the target now next?

Technically we can think of targets like 16300 to 16500 levels. As it's a new all time high so there is no resistance on higher side. 

If market falls from higher levels then it will be contra call. 

Take a caution, do not prefer to trade on short side on any small pull back on anticipation of fall. Market may not fall easily. 

Happy Tradaing, 

NIFTY 03 AUG 2021 : Caution needed near to 15900 levels, keep your money management strategy on.

 

Good Morning friends, 

            So finally we are in the zone of 15850 to 15900 and this is resistance zone. This is the zone where optimism died every time in recent past. Now, it may be 15900 as top or 15960 as top, it hardly matters but bulls are so far not ready to take it higher from here. 

Hence today is another crucial day. Will it take another attempt to cross?

Hard to answer. Let us see but history goes in favour of bears. Once again, I will be in search of opportunity to trade on short side with strict money management.

Some day some time, it will break the range. 

Happy Trading.  

NIFTY 02 AUG 2021 : Once again, 15850-15900 remain crucial resistance. Caution require at higher levels.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Above is an hour chart of Nifty and it has proven again that 15850-15900 remain a tougher resistance. SGX Nifty is giving a sense of higher start. It can open in resistance zone. 

What shall be course of action. Let the time pass and wait for time to short at higher levels. I cannot pin point the top. I will in search of some pattern for shorting. I have already said that if I have to trade long from higher levels then I will to add long on breakout. 

It is not safer to trade long from higher levels. Gap opening remains troubling. Take a note Nifty will some day break this range and so keep your money management strict. 

Sector to watch for the day is metal. 

Happy trading,