NIFTY 30 JUNE 2021 : Beyond stock specific action, market need fresh thrust for rise.

Good Morning Friends, 

As I am quoting from past few days that market is not likely to cross above 15900 in easy way. We are in need of fresh thrust. Technical set up is not yet governing for rise above 15900. It is better to wait for cross above 15900 rather than speculating. 

In alter sense, this kind of pattern is more supportive for bears. Shall we bet for fall? Even that situation is not more convincing. Nifty has generated more supports in short term and those has proven meaningful in price action. Such as 15670 > 15600 > 15500 > 15450. 

Pattern wise, I advise caution from long position but that must have view for intraday. As long as Nifty is sustaining below 15800, we cannot advocate for rise. It is in favour of bears. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

 

NIFTY 29 JUNE 2021 : Its safer to avoid long near 15900 levels. Wait for strong breakout.

 

Good morning Friends, 

I have already quoted past week also that market is looking sluggish to heavy near 15900 levels. Yesterday was also one such confirmation day. If one is intended to trade long then one must wait for fresh and strong break out above 15900. 

Above is hourly chart. It is a price action chart. It is showing multiple top at 15900 levels. Good part is that it had higher bottom which can confirm that we can expect breakout sooner than expected. This may require quicker action. 

For today's trade I suggest to expect a support at 15800 levels. Looks like if it break 15800 then we can expect a slide. On higher side to trade long I will wait for strong breakout above 15900 levels. May be I will even above 15930 kinds levels. 

Happy trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 25 JUNE 2021 : High chance that market will undergo consolidation before next decisive move.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Above daily chart has generated inside day pattern and it is reflecting that both bulls as well as bears are unable to take market direction. This gives me a sense that market will not break this pattern easily. So, as of now traders should opt a strategy to trade in a range. Breakout can occur either way. If breakout come then we can trade for direction and that next move can be impressive. Normally it comes with trend. 

Range High side 15850-15900

Range Lower side 15650 - 15600

Above is extreme end, majority of trading may remains here and there at 15750-15800 levels. That can be very tight. One need to focus on stock specific trading strategy. 

Happy trading, 

Praveen Kumar 

NIFTY 24 JUNE 2021 : Nifty has meaningful support at 15600 levels. Do not hunt the bottom this time.

 

Good Morning friends, 

With words of caution, we have saved ourselves from unnecessary long trade. Nifty slips throughout the day without any great recovery. I am analyzing Nifty on hourly chary. It is plotted above. One can easily sense that Nifty has support at 15600, a level which gave maximum rebound. 

If it breaks it can dip as big as 15460 levels. As long as it is staying above 15460-15300, we can say that medium term trend remains up and these fall are just the pullback. 

Still, I suggest do not hunt the bottom. There can be some volatility and we may get a volatile bottom which may not be easily catchable. 

Happy Trading, 

NIFTY 23 JUNE 2021 : Nifty demands caution around 15900 levels. May form double top kinda pattern.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Now a days it may be difficult to predict the market on EOD basis as market used to surprise during trading hours. Yesterday it has shown resistance around 15900 but the fall has surprised with its magnitude. 

So, the out come remains same for the day. Meaningful resistance remains at 15900. Suppose if it makes another top around 15900 then it will become "double top". If that happens it will not be in favour of bulls. 

Already, underperformance of Bank Nifty is concerning. Remember, Bank Nifty is far from its all time high. 

That's the reason for caution. I will not trade long for the day. Let the market decide the direction. 

Happy Trading

NIFTY 22 JUNE 2021 : Nifty to move above 15800, strength may halt @ top near 15850-15900

 

Good Morning Friends, 

If you the hourly chart pattern, the last two days of trade are quite similar. Recovery continues through out the day. One bottom at 15450 and next at 15505. Now it has closed above 15700 levels. This has generated a great momentum. 

The next meaningful resistance will emerge at 15800 to 15900 levels. Momentum can definitely take Nifty towards those levels. 

It may give you a sense of double top formation and hence this recovery may halt at 15850 to 15900 levels. So, again I am advising cation at top. Although, I still feel that Nifty should have tested 16000 levels but that depends on how it react at 15900 level. 

If it has to strength then buyers has to show their power today. 

Happy trading

NIFTY 21 JUNE 2021 : Meaningful support is at 15460 and then at 15300. Momentum is changing.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

It was a perfect fall and then a perfect rebound on Friday. Rebound was a sign that bulls are still willing to buy at lower levels Now market may have an effect of global cues in opening hours and makes it unsuitable to trade. 

As SGX is reflecting, we can expect open around 15600 which is a big wash out of Friday's recovery. I do not suggest to trade immediately. My plan is to buy at low in fall but first I have to see the magnitude of fall and a possible sign of recovery like we got on Friday. 

Few supports in mind are 15560 > 15000 > 15460. 

It should not go below 15460 in hurry. 

Be careful on above levels. 

Happing Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 18 JUNE 2021 : So far, working support lies at 15600 to 15560 levels. CAUTION ADVISED.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

I quoted yesterday, not to short at lows. Well, we see few intraday rebounds confirming bulls intention to have a grip on market. It was another session where we saw selling in second half again. Basics of technical has a lot of importance of last hour of trades. 

The way I am seeing the market now, it doesn't have that much strength which it requires. It cannot be said that we have sign of warning here but such sign always comes late. 

Take 15600 to 15560 as key support zone. If it violates then Nifty can take support at 15300 levels. On higher side 15800 and then 15900 are key resistance. This is definitely not a good sign that Nifty is moving lower than its upward sloping channel. If it is not a sign of weakness then also it can indicate only consolidation. 

Play more with trading phycology and give technical a second priority. 

I may change my trading decision but as of now I am less intended to trade long on index. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar 

NIFTY 17 JUNE 2021 : NIFTY turned alarming yesterday by giving up recovery. Caution Advised near top.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

In recent time market has developed a pattern of recovery in second half. Till the time it was happening, it was good. It has violated yesterday. 

I updated on twitter that its not good. Well, above is daily chart and MACD is the reason. Big question is will 15901 remains a top. It is hard to answer but it looks like need to make fresh attempt to test of cross 16000 levels. MACD has top to top divergence. So, pattern is not as supportive as past. 

Let us see if bulls are ready to take fresh attempt or give up before 16000. 

One more caution, do not short lows. To me meaning support are now at 15560 and then at 15300 levels. 

Happy Trading 

NIFTY 16 JUNE 2021 : Its choppy but chart patterns are still intact for uptrend.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

What has happened yesterday in final hour was basically a result of some less participation at higher levels. Still, have a look at above hourly chart of Nifty. We can still have an upward channel and this reflects the main trend. 

I must ass that 15800 level which was an impulsive top few days back is now a support. At least, as long as 15800 holds, this trend is intact even for trading. 

If anyone is in search for pin point top to short can guess any levels but it can never be wise shorting on anticipation. Short signal cannot and can never come at top. This is what's basics of technical suggests. 

As long as 15800 holds, I have a hope for 16000. 

Let us see todays deal, 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 14 JUNE 2021 : Running in consolidating range of 15600 to 15800+ with some possible outcome as short term rise.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

With above title, I do not mean that market will rise by today itself. As it has closed above 15800 and so that's base to assume that we can visit 16000 marks sooner. This consolidation has one dip also which is good to take out weak hand. 

I must say that we are far away from the levels of 15300 which remains base line support of this rise. If unexpected does not happen then 16000 is some thing that we can assume by this week only. Condition is that it must save the support of 15650 to 15600 levels. 

Well, Can I say same for BANKNIFTY, may be note. it looks like participation will come from old economy stocks like metals and pharma. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 11 JUNE 2021 : Patterns just saved from edge and may challenge 15800 again.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Looking on to daily Nifty chart, we can say that possible threat of fall has saved. Take a note that it has never closed below 15600 level. Surely, it has broken during the day of fall but saved. On expiry day too it has moved higher. 

If I make a study on last four candle (which are of this week), it is giving edge to bulls. As long as Nifty staying above 15600, there will be denial of fall. More than that as long as it is above 15300, trend is still up. These fall are just small pull back. 

Here is a big question, can Nifty hit 16000? My answer is yes but when and after how much correction. I do not have answer. Market has to answer this question. Do not prefer heavy shorting.  

Happy Trading, 

NIFTY 10 JUNE 2021 : Yesterday's pin point fall bottom of 15566 will at as support before 15300.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

I must say that I was expecting yesterday's fall. Best point is that it came from exactly the desired resistance of 15800 levels. Take a note that if market participant's volume is low then any moves used to be quick and over reacting just like yesterday. It does not mean that market is under panic. Due to new margin rule market gave us quick moves. Today is weekly expiry and such moves may hit the market again. 

One can observe few point on above daily chart. I consider yesterday's bottom as crucial support which is at 15566. If it breaks then we can expect some support at 15400 levels and finally at 15300 levels. On higher side 15800 is the resistance. 

I must warn about some unprecedented volatility in the market.  

NIFTY breaking crucial supports with alarm

 

What's a crack Nifty got on dot from 15800 levels. It was well predicted using RSI and trend line supports. 

This is how RSI divergence can be dealt. Now, almost every indicator will give sell and sell but that may turn be late sell. I am updating that 15600 is the support which is already under test now. Afterward, Nifty has support @ 15300. Momentum might be shifting and 15800 may remains top for now. 

NIFTY 09 JUNE 2021 : Looks like 15800 will be decisive resistance. Trade light.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Once again I avoid giving daily chart and it remains choppy at top. Above is hourly chart and have a look on the trend line drawn. Nifty moved on that trend line itself. Now, its a 50-50 deal. Bulls will save trend line is saving and bears will it can break. 

What even be, but it is still having respect. One thing is clear that 15800 is still proving as tough resistance. We have meaningful support at 15600, little far by 150 points. If you can trade conformably in this zone then one can trade. opt a strategy of buy low and sell high. 

I also opted s strategy of shorting high due to better risk reward. Well, still you cannot be too greedy as market is not weak yet. It can be ... it may be a pause before next rise. I still use can be may be. Hope for the best today. 

Happy Trading, 

NIFTY 08 JUNE 2021 : Nifty is turning heavy near 15800 levels. No easy cross today.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Above is hourly chart as daily chart is not conclusive yet. Have a look on RSI and the trend line drawn on NIFTY chart. You are already experienced and can sense what could happen next. 

Normally, Divergence act on the break of decisive trend line. (Note - if it does not then divergence continues). 

Suppose if it breaks above trend line then it will see a price correction. Why am I saying for break of trend line? Derivative data is suggesting that 15800 may not see easy cross now so choppiness or correction is likely situation. 

Place above set up on NIFTY spot and watch it for the day. 

Happy trading, 

Praveen Kumar 

NIFTY 07 JUNE 2021 : Trading support stand at 15650 to 15600 zone and resistance at 15800

 

Good Morning Friends, 

It looks like new margin rules is showing its impact. So far, market is hanging higher. Above is daily charts which is almost unchanged but intraday chart may not be as firm as daily chart. 

There are few key supports and resistances. Support is in the zone of 15650 to 15600 levels. We may assume Friday's low of 15622 as mean support levels. On higher side, Nifty has room for 15800. Derivative positive is suggesting that Nifty may not move much on higher side immediately. 

In my view, we may have limited trading opportunities in this 200 points zone of 15600 to 15800. It gives me a sense of range bound market. Do not over trade in this zone. 

Let us see how market shape up. I have no position. I may prefer to wait longer before initiating any trade. On other side, there are opportunities in many stocks. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar 

NIFTY - Long term chart (Weekly) from 1990 to 2021 - 21 year top formation analysis

 

(Click on chart to see enlarge view)

Hello Friends, 

First of all this article is not for trading or even short term investment. It is for those who used to hold stocks and sleep. I try to answer if they can really sleep or is it alarming time. 

We have a long phrase in market, "market fall on the day everyone is bullish on it". It means market fall on most unexpected day. Second thing is, "Price has a memory". 

I am highlighting some observation based on above charts. 

1. Indian market has only 5 major break out of previous all time high. I am personally witnessing      market from 1998. 

2. Market used to retrace its rally if it breakout after multiple attempts. Look at first breakout. It        hardly corrected  

3. Market correct itself in two ways, i.e. Price correction and time correction and both has           inverse relation.  

 Even with small effort you can able to understand above chart. let me give you details about each previous all time high breakout. Read it with patience. 

Dates are on weeks closing. These are actually weeks.  

Breakout (1) - Nifty hits a first high @ 430 (closing) on 8 October 1990. This is I am taking as base. This high broke on 22 July 1991. What has happened after that? A quick fire rally continues till 30 March 1992. It has gained almost 170% without any correction. It hit a closing high of 1236. 

Breakout (2) - Nifty goes under consolidation for years. It decisively makes new all time high on 12 July 1999. (I was new in the market at that time. It was software bubble days). Rally continues till 07 February 2000 and hit a high @ 1756 with a gain of almost 39%. It was not so smooth rise. 

Breakout (3) - Nifty breaks above high of 1756 on 01 November 2004 on decisive way. Then a mammoth rally started.  Nifty finally hit another all time high on 07 January 2008. It gave us 242% return. Fall led by Satyam Computers scam and then global melt down due to mortgage crisis. High was 6274

Breakout (4) - Nifty crossed previous high on 03 march 2014 and rally continues to make another time till 12248. Gaining 95%. This we saw on 20 January 2020. You can say 6 years of rally. 

Breakout (5) - Nifty takes out its previous all time high on 20 November 2020 and so far added 25% and it is just 7 months rally. 

I can say unexpected is nothing in market and people has to be always alert in the market but dynamics is denying any great threat so fall. As this all time high taken out by market with ease and without multiple attempts so we may say that buyers are strong. As buyer are strong market may not ready to go down easily. 

In my view 12500 with act as good support and any short term dip can be opportunity to buy. Equally, market may under go time correction after a significant rally. So far, market is in rally mode only and you calculate your view for top depending on economy. 

Remember, trading dip are bound to come like you can see in charts but investments are still safe and can be bought in dip. 

I do not think that market can be unsafe for coming years due to post covid effect. There are lots of talks of bubble in market. I say, market always have bubbles in the form of bad stocks but indices never go in bubble. 

I accept that economy may struggle for 2021 but market is knowing this and any dip will be bought as above cycle is going to repeat itself. 

Concerning factors for this years is - 

Agriculture outcome will see dip as COVID hit this time in rural area. It will be interesting to see how market react those. Many companies will see in its earning due to above factor. Just take care about this point. 

Rest is fine & Happy Investing,

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 04 JUNE 2021 : NIFTY may extend gain towards 15800 levels. Caution but no threat of big correction.

 Good Morning Friends, 

From past three trading sessions, we observe that market has bought each intraday fall and this is the great sign of strength. As long as bulls are ready to buy we can say that market has interested buyer on some x,y,z hope. Momentum is in favour of bulls. 

Meaningful support will be at 15650 and at 15600 levels. We can expect some good support @ 15460-1520 zone even if any fall extend. 

ON higher side what I did is, I plot Fibonacci retrenchment against the fall from 15432 to 14151. One can see that 1.272 time will come at 15787 levels. 

This can be a possible target now. 

For interested short seller - Well, unexpected is nothing if want to predict a top. I can say this market usually don't fall significantly without atleast one big red candle. Now, every intraday dip has bought. So, be careful. 

Happy Trading

Praveen Kumar    

NIFTY 03 JUNE 2021 : Bounce is likely to continue to challenge for another new all time high.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

We need to accept that buyers are terribly strong right now. Nifty hit a high at 15660 and corrected to 15460. This correction would not even lasted for intraday, its bought. WoW, its bought intraday and market must some message for us. 

The message is loud and clear. Market can see some more extension. I used Nifty Hourly chart to explain as daily chart remains same. Previously hourly consolidation peak act as support for bounce. 

On other hand, once again rise is dominated by index heavy weight like Reliance and SBIN so action is limited. Hence, be alert from unexpected moves too. Unless, small cap indices starts under performing, we cannot thing for any significant correction. 

One can have short for intraday as opportunity but don't forwards. Accepts it, bulls are strongly. 

Logically, 15660 is first levels to be challenged by market. 

Happy Trading, 

NIFTY 02 JUNE 2021 : A possible corrective day ahead with resistance @ 15660, Support @ 15520.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

It was a flat to negative close yesterday which is sign of pause in current run. Above is daily chart of Nifty. There are two points to be noted. 

a) Rising wedge formation

b) Reverse H&S pattern which has done 100% extension 

For positive side, I can see still a higher high and higher low formation and most important is retailers liquidity. Overall, I can say that there is nothing much concerning for bulls. It con just be the trading correction if comes. 

Short term support is at 15200 and then at 15000 levels. 

Happy Trading, 

Praveen Kumar

BANKNIFTY 01 JUNE 2021 : Decisive hour is coming. Support = 35300-35200 and resistance 35700

 

If Bank Nifty sustain below 35300-35200 then it will be very first sign of weakness from higher levels. If this goes decisive and in favour of fall then we can see some good action. Warning, Do not short without break of levels on decisive way.  

NIFTY 01 JUNE 2021 : Nifty @ new all time high. Technical views remains bullish unless we get a negative close.

 

Good Morning friends, 

Fueled by multiple factors, Nifty breaks its previous alltime high and run continues even yesterday. Its a daily market analysis but I am presenting a weekly chart to show you long term picture. Almost everything is clear from above chart which is showing the importance of 15550 resistance mark. Fine, Nifty close above that but caution requires at these kind of levels. 

Readers take a caution - I am not saying that this market gave me short signal. No, not at all. We have not even got single negative close above previous alltime high. I am just advising caution. Trade long with lighter volume. 

Hourly charts gives us a reason why we cannot be bearish. Have a look, result of every consolidation is a rise. Unless the result of single consolidation goes in favour of bears, market remains us. Let us see today's opening and I will see price at 11 am to trade. 

Disclosure - I have very small quantity put long on Nifty from yesterday's last minutes.