NIFTY 31 MAY 2021 : Chances are that divergence may play today, caution required. Nifty may fail @ new all time top.

 

Good Morning Friends, 

Nifty formed a new all time high and this came with a firm rise in heavy weight Reliance. There are times in history when market topped out with rise in reliance. 

Well, important technical point, which is concerning for bulls is RISING WEDGE formation. Band is turning narrow and it can break anytime. Some important point to note is 

Why I am not using daily chart? - That's on resistance free zone and all indications are saying to buy and buy but conviction is less. So I focus hourly chart. I am not saying that just go very bearish at this momentum, Just be cautious. I would be happy to see market rising but as of now technical indicators are not as supportive as past. 

1. Option data suggest resistance @ 15500 Nifty levels. 

2. Nifty support - 15380 for trading

Trade with low volume on buy side. 

I have not formed any of my long position. Equally, I booked my long on M&M too. 

Happy Trading

Praveen Kumar

NIFTY 28 MAY 2021 : A big one sided move is about to come on either side.

 

Good morning friends, 

It was a remarkable expiry yesterday. Post 2:00 pm trades were too much. Nifty slipped from days high then fall to make days low at 2:30 pm and then rebounded to close at days high. This will definitely be expiry effect. 

If you see Nifty, it was in the range of 100 points only and that's makes me to think that Shorts are still in the system. 

I have just two concerning points at the moment

1. Rising wedge (Which is again confirmed with narrow range in expiry day)

2. RSI divergence on hourly chart (Which are running too long)

Here is the hourly chart with RSI plotted. 

Conclusion - I am clearly having cautiously bullish view and I have a hope for new all time high for Nifty. Still, get the above set up and any trade which sustain below the above plotted support trend line (which drawn lower) will able to change my views and I may add shorts. 

As I am not giving much value to technical indicators near all time high so I will look for better conviction from momentum indicators. 

Take yesterday low 15270, and hope for rise. Let us see. Improvise levels and views presented here or follow me on twitter for more updates. Join on twitter (Link - https://twitter.com/viecapital)

Be confident and have self-belief 

Happy Trading 😀

Regards, Praveen Kumar

BANKNIFTY FUT 27 MAY : Why I came out of long trade.

 

I have less time to update. Above is my set up. A refusal by bulls and hence I quickly react to cut my long trade on time. 

NIFTY 27 MAY 2021 : Monthly derivative expiry can duel up for 150-200 moves on either side.

 

My focus remains on rising wedge pattern that has develop on Nifty daily chart. I marks those on above chart, equally same is visible on Stochastic. I have few important levels for the day. These are as follow - 

Resistance - 15325-15335 < above those it can challenge 15430

Support - 15200-15190 > below which it can test 15100

Option OI data is suggesting for a move in the range of 15200 to 15300 levels. 

Now let us talk about market psychology. This up move came on the hope of stimulus package by government. Obviously its due to COVID second wave. Today, we have derivative expiry and market is equally in the striking distance to challenge the new all time high. I mean, Nifty all time high is even less that a percent away. 

I must say that unless Nifty start closing below 15100 there is no point to say that trend reversing. Intraday fall or choppiness are jut fluctuation. 

Use given levels to trade. 

Happy Trading ☺

NIFTY 26 MAY 2021 : Tussle to continue between bulls and bear near all time high

 

I can tell you that most momentum indicators would be running with divergence in shorter time frame and this can be impact of some gap trade. This is the characteristic of trade near all time high. two factors govern the trade - one is momentum (on hope of stimulus package) and divergence (may be due to unwillingness of participation of fresh bulls). 

Technical factors - Watch the formation of rising wedge on daily chart. This is concerning for bulls. No one can guarantee but it looks like that if it Nifty slips below 15100 by any chance and starts settling below 15100 then it may not be safe anymore. In alter sense 15100 is a decisive support and must be respected. 

One higher side, break above the given trend line can make us safer but that levels looks above 15325. 

I hope above study will help you to take trading decision. 

Happy Trading ☺

BANKNIFTY FUT 25 MAY : STRONG CAUTION ADVISED, IF IT BREAKS DAYS LOW.

 

DISCLOSER - I have some put option. 

NIFTY 25 MAY 2021 : Reverse H&S pattern is under confirmation. Can it challenge for New alltime high?

 

Yesterday's session was quite impressive although it has slipped from top. Well, whenever market goes near all time high, mostly it goes with divergence and its the same divergence which used to cause intraday dip. 

Another important point is this kind of moves cause lots of gap opening. Hence, this is for lion hearted traders. 

Any dip near 15100 to 15000 can be opportunity to trade long. 

Shorting???

One can get some intraday swing of 50-60 points but there is no point to short as swing traders. remember, momentum indicators will definitely show divergence but that is not the sign for shorting. One may observe such divergence mostly on hourly chart but ignore those. 

NOTE - unless market breaks trend line support, there is no point to go for positional short. 

Caution is always advised in such kind of days.

24 may 2021 BANKNIFTY FUT

 

Above is 15 Min intraday chart of Bank nifty fut. Once it start settling below 3800-34780, we can expect some dip. There is no point to short above support. 

Its a LION HEARTED trade for the day. 

I have 33500pe bought @ 113 on Friday and same qty added @ 48 today. It's a undesired averaging on resistance. Only good thing is that I added only a small qty deal.  

NIFTY 24 MAY 2021 : CAUTION ADVISED UNLESS FEW MORE STRONG CLOSE

 

Look at above chart. It has formed rising wedge and we are on at higher side of trendline. Rising wedge advising caution at these levels. Here again we have two possibilities. 

First, as usual, market should retrace from here and take support a1 14800 levels. This to make band narrower. So, today's close is important. 

Secondly, Market take cues from momentum and stay higher to challenge for new high. As market moved higher in concluding hour trade of last week so this is a strong possibility. Market may say, do hell with patterns and divergence. 

The market which moves against RSI divergence has a history of being strongly one sided, does not matter up or down. 

I will wait- watch for first 15 minutes of trade to take direction. One this is for sure day will be impressive. 

Disclosure - I am some BANKNIFTY 33500 PE which I added in last 30 minutes of trade on Friday out of adventure. If market remains against my expectation of fall, I will take my loss. 

 

BANKNIFTY : CAUTION ADVISED (BASED ON HOURLY CHART)

 

Good afternoon Friends, 

I just to draw your attention towards RSI divergence on hourly chart. 20 EMA support lies at 33800-33700 levels. 

It was a great opening this morning with strength in INDUSINDBANK, HDFC BANK, SBIN etc but Index is not looking great at top. 

Wait - Watch and then think to trade. 

NIFTY 21 MAY 2021 : Looks like a rising wedge, key support = 14820

 

Good morning friends, 

I have already discussed about no support from 15000 to 14900. We saw things shaping in the same way. Well, 14900 is a support and so we can say that market has closed on support but it has changed the possible outcome on daily chart. I can able to see a rising wedge pattern under formation. 

A rising wedge normally has out come as fall. So this formation is not in favour of bulls. I am still not bearish. I will look for trading support at 14880 and then at most import 14820. Charts are already explaining support. 

Where is resistance as SGX NIFTY is up now? Key resistance lies in the range of 15000 to 15040. previous supports are resistance now. It will invite fresh bulls only above 15040 but that's too far now. 

Above is only a view, improvise levels during trading hours. 

Happy trading 😊

BANKNIFTY : We are on most crucial hour

It is almost on support and so far it is has filled the previous gap up. Above is a hourly chart of bank nifty current contract future. If current candle goes negative for close, it can cause a fresh fall. 

looks like market is concerned for something. 

 

NIFTY 20 MAY 2021 : I still say no trade on index. Direction is still UP.

 

I draw a key trend line on above chart. As long as it is above that tend line, it should not be weak. It is also true that unless it goes above 15140, it would do much for bulls. Today may be a day to watch. Focus on stocks where we have many opportunities. 

Nifty is lacking support below 15040, it will have no support from 15000 to 14900. 

Please improvise levels on real time. 

Happy trading

NIFTY 19 MAY 2021 : As long as Nifty stay in 15040 to 15140, Do not trade index

 

Above is the hourly chart for Nifty. Well, it is index chart, not index future. Yesterday's high and low makes the trade levels crucial. Unless it breaks, I prefer to avoid Index for trading. If it breaks lower then it has a gap. Moving on higher, it need fresh strength. 

Waise ye view hai.

For trade, you need to improvise. 

Happy trading. 

M&M : Great breakout nearby, looks to move for 6-8% rise.

I always like a speaking chart. Have a look at, it is almost clear what it wants to say. Today, we got a breakout and closed on massive note. After a long long time we got a close above 20 EMA. This bounce is coming from a very close to support of 200 EMA. 

Index may consolidate but M&M should have a rise.

Support = 200 EMA - 730, 782 (Trading), 760-750

Resistance = 838, 875

Happy investing

 

NIFTY 18 MAY 2021 - A breakout above 14850 can give 15100-15200-15350

 

What a great and least expected breakout yesterday. I would like to discuss about two possibilities here.

More likely outcome is 15100-15200, as said yesterday but looks like it will come as gap up. If one has long from levels above 14850, congratulation. Book profit on rise. RSI is supportive for rise. 

Less likely outcome - 15044 is a top to invade and may give challenge. If failing then market can reverse from 15044 or near by point. 

Let us see, what's next.  

NIFTY WEEKLY VIEW 17 - 21 MAY 2021

 

Hellow friends, 

Have a look on above hourly chart of Nifty spot. We can able to see the lower top and lower bottom formation. Nifty is again showing some resistance at the upper end of channel. Worse part is not in the part, it is bank nifty chart which has closed almost on days low on Friday. 

I presented two option for bearish move. Anyhow it is showing to hit 13900-14000 levels, giving opportunity for short trade. If it goes higher today then i will prefer to grasp short trade. 

MY STOP LOSS may be near 14850 levels. Well, I am more keen for shorting bank Nifty. What's above 14850, we can say it would be breaking higher end of channel and that will be named as breakout. In that case a bullish move could be expected for price target 15000-15200. 

Thanks and happy trading