31 August 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expiry may not be interesting in term of range but will be directive for next week. Resistance = 9925-9950

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Analysis 31 August 2017: -

On 30 August 2017: FII Net Sold – 12.46 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 290.78 Crs

We have derivative expiry today. I have already quoted that it will be difficult for Nifty to break the trading range of 9800-9900. So far, extreme points go from 9925 to 9750 but mostly remain in range. My views for market remain same. This is undergoing in the formation of right shoulder.

It has n-line support in the range of 9800-9750 and this is saving market. There is a fair chance that it can sustain these supports for some more days before making the decisive direction. One can opt swing trading support.

For today’s trading session, Nifty is likely to open at flat note. Will this do anything much? I think and assume that it is going to be dull and waste kind of expiry. If market under the effect of expiry then, it will make the move dicey and unpredictable. One can expect trading support at 9840-9800 levels which moving on higher side it may get an extreme point 9925-9949 kind of levels.

I prefer to be on side line on expiry day. Direction may favour bears but from higher end. I am definitely looking for scope to enter in to index trading position but there is hardly any scope. Sooner or later a fall may begin.

Top are still expected to come at 10400 but I am not too firm now. I was bullish from 9000+ and I will take market part wise. Firstly, I am focusing if this recovery can go around 10000 levels or not. First cross of 10000 was important but now it is more important to see the second attempt.

I am maintaining my bullish instance from 9000 onwards. Length of the rally should be from 9000 to 10400 levels. It hardly matters if this magnitude goes 1400 points exactly or goes as 1300 points or 1600 points. Call was bullish above 9000 and so far it is pity successful.

I can say that first sign came from sectoral performance. Under performance goes critical and hence I believe that some money may be pulled from bluechip index too. Before you think that I am bearish then let me update – I am firm on my target of 10000 on Nifty. This will just be the meantime price correction which is an unusual and healthy phenomenon.

Strategy for Nifty September future – It is likely to open above 9910-levels. It has resistance at 9950 levels. The key point is that market is going to be dicey and bearish at any point of time. To be fair, I may avoid market on expiry day but we may see scope for entry on short side. this is going to be interesting for next week of trades.

BANK NIFTY September future – There is no great chance. It is currently trading at 24400 levels. Now, it is expected to take a support at 24200 on closing basis. If it has to get up move then also it will face resistance at 24700 zones. Well, I strongly expect a stiff resistance at 24700 zones. I will prefer long trade on this index only if this can surpass this levels. 

28 August 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Expiry week demands caution. Do not be blindly bullish.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Analysis for 28 August 2017: -

On 24 August 2017: FII Net Sold – 696.93 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1044.36 Crs

Well, we are on derivative expiry week after a long week end. As expected last week was limited for trading as index remains in the range of 100 points. Once again technical cues are not greatly in favour of wide trading zone. Derivative expiry can be the only hope for some fire work.  

Expiry factors may favour bulls as it has saved 9700-9685 support zone so hope for higher side is still alive although I do not think that market may see easy test 10000 marks for this week. I can still quote that market is not going to show further great sign of correction as long as it is above 9700-9685. If it breaks 9700-9685 then we can expect further slide of 400-500 points of Nifty so I am very calculative.

For today’s trading session, Nifty is likely to open at higher note but big question is that will it sustain the rise. Can it able to cross 9900 marks. There are many such questions and answer is not very clear. I am expecting market to test 9900 marks for this week and which should come on Monday itself. Well, I am not going to be very bullish from 9900 without seeing the reaction.

Top are still expected to come at 10400 but I am not too firm now. I was bullish from 9000+ and I will take market part wise. Firstly, I am focusing if this recovery can go around 10000 levels or not. First cross of 10000 was important but now it is more important to see the second attempt.

I am maintaining my bullish instance from 9000 onwards. Length of the rally should be from 9000 to 10400 levels. It hardly matters if this magnitude goes 1400 points exactly or goes as 1300 points or 1600 points. Call was bullish above 9000 and so far it is pity successful.

I can say that first sign came from sectoral performance. Under performance goes critical and hence I believe that some money may be pulled from bluechip index too. Before you think that I am bearish then let me update – I am firm on my target of 10000 on Nifty. This will just be the meantime price correction which is an unusual and healthy phenomenon.

Strategy for Nifty September future – It is likely to open above 9920 levels. It can surpass higher levels and it is expected to test 9950 kind of levels. Further moves depend on the kind of volume generating at those levels. In the lower side it will get support at 9860-9840 zone. This zone remains critical. There is a possibility of too many swings in this zone.

BANK NIFTY September future – It is currently trading at 24400 levels. Now, it is expected to take a support at 24200 on closing basis. If it has to get up move then also it will face resistance at 24700 zones. Well, I strongly expect a stiff resistance at 24700 zones. I will prefer long trade on this index only if this can surpass this levels. 

23 August 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Do not prefer to trade long on flip flop trade. H&S on development.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Analysis for 23 August 2017: -

On 22 August 2017: FII Net Sold – 828.69 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 435.05 Crs

Fine, I said on Monday that market has less room to trade on long side. I was right. Since then I have restricted my activity on index. Nifty is resting near 9800-9750 levels. Well, even if bounce comes there is a chance of getting sold at higher levels.

Have a look on the chart where we can see the development of H&S pattern. Possible n-line is at 9685. Here is a firm words, if it breaks and start trading below 9685 then we can see the possibility if 9300-9200 as the logical target on down side. If this happens then it would name as almost 10% correction. I must say that we can now on such possibility.

For today’s trading session, Nifty is likely to open at higher note but I am not firm for top to sustain. I have not added any trade yet on index. What I believe is that Nifty may not get of this 100 points range easily. It does not matter what technical is saying I need a concrete signal to trade which may be short on top. Let us see how it comes.  

Top are still expected to come at 10400 but I am not too firm now. I was bullish from 9000+ and I will take market part wise. Firstly, I am focusing if this recovery can go around 10000 levels or not. First cross of 10000 was important but now it is more important to see the second attempt.

I am maintaining my bullish instance from 9000 onwards. Length of the rally should be from 9000 to 10400 levels. It hardly matters if this magnitude goes 1400 points exactly or goes as 1300 points or 1600 points. Call was bullish above 9000 and so far it is pity successful.

I can say that first sign came from sectoral performance. Under performance goes critical and hence I believe that some money may be pulled from bluechip index too. Before you think that I am bearish then let me update – I am firm on my target of 10000 on Nifty. This will just be the meantime price correction which is an unusual and healthy phenomenon.

Strategy for Nifty August future – If I take 9800 as a mean price then, 50 points above or below does not matter. This market is not decided to take a direction. Soon it will take. I can see the possible short trade on the development of H&S pattern but that’s not easy to deal right now. May be, I will not trade today also unless I see weakness on top.  

BANK NIFTY August future – This index will be key for bears, if this can sustain below 23900-23950 levels. Will it break and sustain? I am repeating that we have limited support if it sustain below 23900 levels. This can see some big hammering by bears on lower side. who knows in worse case it may get support after fall of 1000 points. Its too alarming. 

21 August 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: 9700-9685 is a support but market is likely to be range bound for first half of this week.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Analysis for 21 August 2017: -

On 18 August 2017: FII Net Sold – 2182.12 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 584.59 Crs

Last week we saw a bounce from nearer to 9700 and then hit a high at 9900 levels. Now is it resting in the mean zone? Well, I am expecting a choppy week. Market may enter in the days of dull trades. Technical support of 9700 will remain valid. Equally, I am not sure if it can see easy cross of 10000 levels.

I suggest that activity should be limited in choppy zone. If one look at the chart then one sense that market may be forming a H&S pattern on daily chart.

For today’s trading session, it is expected to open around 9850 levels. If I have to pick a direction for trade then I will prefer to pick a long trade but not for the target much above 9900. As I said if it have to pick but I am not going to pick trade on index. If one has to think about great trend break out then one need to wait for sustained trading above 9900 levels.

Top are still expected to come at 10400 but I am not too firm now. I was bullish from 9000+ and I will take market part wise. Firstly, I am focusing if this recovery can go around 10000 levels or not. First cross of 10000 was important but now it is more important to see the second attempt.

I am maintaining my bullish instance from 9000 onwards. Length of the rally should be from 9000 to 10400 levels. It hardly matters if this magnitude goes 1400 points exactly or goes as 1300 points or 1600 points. Call was bullish above 9000 and so far it is pity successful.

I can say that first sign came from sectoral performance. Under performance goes critical and hence I believe that some money may be pulled from bluechip index too. Before you think that I am bearish then let me update – I am firm on my target of 10000 on Nifty. This will just be the meantime price correction which is an unusual and healthy phenomenon.

Strategy for Nifty August future – It is expected to open around 9850 levels. I will not opt trading on index right now. I have a view that market may undergo a range bound mode. It may not break 9800 on lower side and equally it may not see easy break on higher side either. This study may be valid for 2-3 trading sessions. Let us see if we can get a direction for even 50 points.

BANK NIFTY August future – I have already forecasted that this index will not do much near 24000. This index is not stable as Nifty. I will avoid this index for trading long. I must remind that trading supports are not very frequent if it breaks 24000 levels. This index is on threatening levels. Perhaps the reason that I am not picking long trades. 

16 August 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: If it saving at 9700 then second compulsion for long is to trade above 9800.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Analysis for 16 August 2017: -

On 14 August 2017: FII Net Sold – 1638.83 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1619.17 Crs

After a fall of 400 points we saw a breather from the low of 9685 which was just nearby 9700 levels. So far I am considering it as breather although it may see revival. Basics of technical analysis are suggesting that today market may advance and recovery should last at least as long as 9870-9900 + levels.

Shall we opt trading long now? Well, this recovery is not giving me great comfort so far to trade on long side. I am sitting on side line to see the strength. It is safer to wait for strength. If I have to take biasing then it may be on long side but we should avoid trading on soft biasing trend.

For today’s trading session, it is expected to open around 9780-9770 levels. If this can sustain on support line then we can expect strength on higher side. It is suggesting that move above 9800 will have better conviction for a move towards 9850-9870 levels. Let us see if this happens. It is for sure that days of easy rise is over. If one has to trade long or short then timing and picking is very important.

Top are still expected to come at 10400 but I am not too firm now. I was bullish from 9000+ and I will take market part wise. Firstly, I am focusing if this recovery can go around 10000 levels or not. First cross of 10000 was important but now it is more important to see the second attempt.

I am maintaining my bullish instance from 9000 onwards. Length of the rally should be from 9000 to 10400 levels. It hardly matters if this magnitude goes 1400 points exactly or goes as 1300 points or 1600 points. Call was bullish above 9000 and so far it is pity successful.

I can say that first sign came from sectoral performance. Under performance goes critical and hence I believe that some money may be pulled from bluechip index too. Before you think that I am bearish then let me update – I am firm on my target of 10000 on Nifty. This will just be the meantime price correction which is an unusual and healthy phenomenon.

Strategy for Nifty August future – It is expected to open around 9800 levels. I will opt trading long with many terms and conditions. If it can sustain tall above 9800 then only we can expect for fresh 50-70 points on higher side. If it just trading below 9800 then bears may be back at any moment. Do not trade on tug-of-war king of situation.

BANK NIFTY August future – 24000 is a support and I am looking market reaction at this levels. It has bounced from 23944 levels. Well, approximately it has make at that level. This index is not stable as Nifty. I will avoid this index for trading long. I must remind that trading supports are not very frequent if it breaks 24000 levels. 

11 August 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: The last hope support is at 9700. If it breaks this supports too then pain can be even worse.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Analysis for 10 August 2017: -

On 09 August 2017: FII Net Sold – 1171.21 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 821.72 Crs

WoW, I just watched SGX Nifty and it is giving a cue to open down by 100 points. This is impressive and remarkable. I am maintaining my instance for correction from 10100 and it seems that we are likely to see 9700 levels by today itself. Just count, it is the price correction which is sharper than the rise which happens most time.

I have already quoted that now market is not for light hearted traders. Shall I pick the falling knife for long? Well, I am not in such mood. Things can be worse before sign of improvement.

For today’s trading session, it is expected to open around 9700 levels. If you are not already short then you have nothing to do in this market. I cannot recommend short after 100 points gap down. If you have short then just enjoy like us. If you do not have short then just leave the market or just watch but do not deal. If it sustain below 9700 then Nifty can wash 100 points more.

Who knows if this tests 9500 levels before improving?

I am maintaining my bullish instance from 9000 onwards. Length of the rally should be from 9000 to 10400 levels. It hardly matters if this magnitude goes 1400 points exactly or goes as 1300 points or 1600 points. Call was bullish above 9000 and so far it is pity successful.

I can say that first sign came from sectoral performance. Under performance goes critical and hence I believe that some money may be pulled from bluechip index too. Before you think that I am bearish then let me update – I am firm on my target of 10000 on Nifty. This will just be the meantime price correction which is an unusual and healthy phenomenon.

Strategy for Nifty August future – Yesterday’s opening was around 9900 and today’s opening may be around 9700-9730. Suppose if it fails to recover then pain can be even deeper. Will it recover? If it has to recover then it has to save 9700 levels in an case.  

BANK NIFTY August future – We are about to get even 24000 levels now. This may not be as weak as Nifty but it is definitely going to be weaker. Technically, if it breaks 24000 then it will get further room for fall as we are about to see big gaps between supports. One can expect a fresh fall of 200-300 points more if it breaks 24000. 

10 August 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Below 9900 levels, Nifty can see fresh weakness. Next support = 9800.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Analysis for 10 August 2017: -

On 09 August 2017: FII Net Sold – 841.44 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 553.17 Crs

This was most perfect timing by us. Advised exit from long above 10100 and suggested to be either on side line or adding soft shorts. Now, it is giving almost 200 points. I am again repeating that days of easy rise might be over.

The next key threshold support is at 9800 levels. I am not sure if this can test this level or not. It may bounce or it may test 9800. One thing is for sure that this market is no more for light hearted traders. Upcoming 2 months are going to be very crucial with many roller coaster movements.

For today’s trading session, it is expected to open around 9900 levels. Can it able to show fresh weakness? If this can sustain below 9900 levels then we can expect fresh slip of 100 points more. Should pick the bottom for long? Well, I have no such plan yet as market mood may turn heavy depending on Indo-China tussle.

I am maintaining my bullish instance from 9000 onwards. Length of the rally should be from 9000 to 10400 levels. It hardly matters if this magnitude goes 1400 points exactly or goes as 1300 points or 1600 points. Call was bullish above 9000 and so far it is pity successful.

For today’s session, I am expecting market to open flat to positive note again. As long as Nifty is above 9940 one can easily maintain bullish instance. I am not the mood to take trades on index as of now after booking good gain in July months but my view is bullish. I usually prefer to wait before bullish again. Suppose if it breaks 9940 then also it can get support around 9830 levels. These are definitely the levels where bearish calls are hard to take.

One thing is clear that you may not get any easy shorting this market. Market dynamics is denying any big price correction and this is not happening for the first time. Correction will come and definitely come but not right now. My expectation is that we are far away from any meaningful (10%) correction. 

I can say that first sign came from sectoral performance. Under performance goes critical and hence I believe that some money may be pulled from bluechip index too. Before you think that I am bearish then let me update – I am firm on my target of 10000 on Nifty. This will just be the meantime price correction which is an unusual and healthy phenomenon.

Strategy for Nifty August future – SGX Nifty is about to open at 9900 levels. Technical support is far away and may be 100 points dip is possible. On higher side 9960-9980 is going to be decisive resistance. There is no point of doing adventure on long side.

BANK NIFTY August future – I am not ready to add easy long anymore in these days. Days of easy rise have done and this index may get more hurt. This can slip around 24000 levels. It can get multiple resistances on higher side. On higher side it will get resistance at 24800-25000. 

08 August 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Market may consolidate this week. Easy rise is not possible any more but target intact at 10400.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Analysis for 08 August 2017: -

On 07 August 2017: FII Net Sold – 199.21 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 308.15 Crs

I am not active on index now. It has done one levels of technical which was at 10100 and now I see possible choppy trades. Will strength come after these choppy moves or will weakness come? I do not think that we can easily predict it. It has already extended too much from the levels of 9000 and I am turning cautious. Although, I am still believing that 10400 may come. My point is that now market is in the phase where next 300 points is are going to be tougher one.

I am going to neutral mode. Technically, market is still having great strength. As long as it is above 10000 we should avoid unnecessary short. It has two important technical supports one is at 10000 and next is at 9940 levels. Nothing great to add.

Do not take choppy sessions as a sign of weakness as it may try to hit higher levels again very soon.

I am maintaining my bullish instance from 9000 onwards. Length of the rally should be from 9000 to 10400 levels. It hardly matters if this magnitude goes 1400 points exactly or goes as 1300 points or 1600 points. Call was bullish above 9000 and so far it is pity successful.

For today’s session, I am expecting market to open flat to positive note again. As long as Nifty is above 9940 one can easily maintain bullish instance. I am not the mood to take trades on index as of now after booking good gain in July months but my view is bullish. I usually prefer to wait before bullish again. Suppose if it breaks 9940 then also it can get support around 9830 levels. These are definitely the levels where bearish calls are hard to take.

One thing is clear that you may not get any easy shorting this market. Market dynamics is denying any big price correction and this is not happening for the first time. Correction will come and definitely come but not right now. My expectation is that we are far away from any meaningful (10%) correction. 

I can say that first sign came from sectoral performance. Under performance goes critical and hence I believe that some money may be pulled from bluechip index too. Before you think that I am bearish then let me update – I am firm on my target of 10000 on Nifty. This will just be the meantime price correction which is an unusual and healthy phenomenon.

Strategy for Nifty August future – SGX Nifty is running at 10100 levels. This is itself showing that market it not moving. Technical levels for break on higher side can be 10160. Technical support is at 10000 levels. If it trade in choppy node then it is safer to avoid. Do not trade for brokers.  

BANK NIFTY August future – 25000 zone itself is a support with follow up support at 24500-24600 levels. On higher side it can touch many levels. Next phase of rise will not be easy one. Technical levels on higher side may not be easy to predict. This can see pause for this week. In all, I am not interested in trading this index at these levels for this week. 

02 August 2017: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Above new all-time high we can expect more rise and rapid rise.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Analysis for 31 July 2017: -

On 01 August 2017: FII Net Sold – 945.83 INR Crs:  DII Net Bought – INR – 1390.65 Crs

Well, once again Nifty has closed on higher note with new all-time high. Technical support of 9940 got a respect and remains untested. This it is itself a sign of great strength. I am expecting the levels of 10400 levels. This rally has many great extensions and this can still extend more.  

I have a view that as long as it is above 9900 levels we have great possibility of hitting 10400 levels. For today’s session I am expecting market to open above 10130 levels and then a fresh wave of rally. Sooner or later this market can able to show the power of fresh money. This market may not see any easy top formation. I am bullish since 9000 levels and I am still suggesting to buy in any dip.

Do not take choppy sessions as a sign of weakness as it may try to hit higher levels again very soon.

I am maintaining my bullish instance from 9000 onwards. Length of the rally should be from 9000 to 10400 levels. It hardly matters if this magnitude goes 1400 points exactly or goes as 1300 points or 1600 points. Call was bullish above 9000 and so far it is pity successful.

For today’s session, I am expecting market to open flat to positive note again. As long as Nifty is above 9940 one can easily maintain bullish instance. I am not the mood to take trades on index as of now after booking good gain in July months but my view is bullish. I usually prefer to wait before bullish again. Suppose if it breaks 9940 then also it can get support around 9830 levels. These are definitely the levels where bearish calls are hard to take.

One thing is clear that you may not get any easy shorting this market. Market dynamics is denying any big price correction and this is not happening for the first time. Correction will come and definitely come but not right now. My expectation is that we are far away from any meaningful (10%) correction. 

I can say that first sign came from sectoral performance. Under performance goes critical and hence I believe that some money may be pulled from bluechip index too. Before you think that I am bearish then let me update – I am firm on my target of 10000 on Nifty. This will just be the meantime price correction which is an unusual and healthy phenomenon.

Strategy for Nifty August future – SGX Nifty is showing for opening above 10130 levels. This is encouraging. Above 10150-10160 some trapped bears will be forced to cover their shorts and they can take index around 10220-10240 levels. This is my anticipation. It is safer to buy in dip with suitable stop loss.

BANK NIFTY August future – 25200 levels has also done and market may be looking for more extension in rise. This index is surely going to impress more from current levels. There is no point of shorting sooner. I would not be surprise to see levels of 26500-27000 levels before Diwali. One can expect strong technical support at 24800-24600 levels.