13 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Time to bet for 200 DMA which is at 7870+. Litmus test 7760 for short covering rise.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 13 April 2016: -

On 08 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 180.27:  DII Net Sold – INR – 159.01

Massive upside on global indices and its futures are driving Indian market future for 7800 on Nifty. It was a logical target from past many weeks. We got some shocks wave of fall for a day in between. Now, it is the time to talk about Up and 7800 too.

200 DMA is at 7870+ levels which are well 2% away from current levels but I find it fair to talk about this target. I still repeat that it may be easy for market to move upward. It always needs driving force to move up.

For today’s session, 7760 is a zone of resistance in rise. If it can sustain above 7760 then we can see firework. Scary bulls or say weak bulls can pull their hand from market. We need brave bulls to act. As long as NIFTY is above 7670, we should not be worried. Long can hold.  

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – I have already projected for a possible rise towards 7780 which looks to come as gap up opening. Even if this gap up fills then also market is bullish. Above 7810 we can see short covering rise. Be long as we hold long. Think to give up long only if it breaks 7700.

BANK NIFTY – Bank Nifty is not as sound as NIFTY but sectorial performance can begin anytime. As long as it is above 15800, it has a possible soft buy signal. Can it retest 16300? I can hope for this to happen although I do not have good technical confirmation yet but we may see such buy to emerge during trading hours. Let us see. If I see weakness from higher levels then 16300 may be my test point for shorting.