20 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: A psychological resistance of 8000 to act after 200 DMA. Break above 200 DMA is decisive but not easy.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 20 April 2016: -

On 18 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 977.98:  DII Net Sold – INR – 313.22

I am back after a long weekend vacation. I have already updated for a short covering move above 7760 which should have faced hurdle at 200 DMA. It means that resistance should have come into act from levels near to 7870 itself but it has surpassed more and looking to advance more. One thing is clear; above 7870 this is not for short to hold.

The next logical resistance can emerge at 7980-8000 levels. I am intact on my long term trend. I must say that a toppy pattern can emerge very soon. It is looking like a bulls trap above 7900 levels. Let us see.

For today’s session, opening may go on positive to higher side as indicated by SGX Nifty. I still believe that it is dangerous to be long above 200 DMA as it is too steep. I am not short yet but I may look for such opportunity.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – Above 7780 it has done too much as SGX Nifty is giving levels of 7970. Can we get this? I cannot deny the possibility. If it comes then I may look for opportunity to short only with small stop loss above 8000 levels.   

BANK NIFTY – Bank Nifty has resistance around 16300-16500 levels. I am clear with my view that market may not find suitable environment to move above 16500 levels. We may see short signal sooner and very sooner. Long opportunity may persist till 16500 but beyond that we may see a toppy formation.