DOW JONES - Crucial week ahead. Look like another 'Sell in MAY, Go away' moves.

Hello everyone, 

I see everything good on NIFTY but equally I found DJIA as bad as possible. It is trading below all crucial moving averages. You can able to see it clearly why I quoted 42000 as crucial resistance. Take a note that 40700 will be intermediate resistance due to technical reasons. 

I need to be very fair in my opinion. I see all possibility of 10% fall on DJIA from current levels. Time frame can be one month with upper maximum levels can be near to 42200. I know it sounds too brutal to believe. 

What's happening there on major policy shift side? Fed chairperson is not ready to give any soft instance on key rate change. I say, he is absolutely right. You cannot speak about rate cut when there is a big fear of higher inflation. President Trump has ignited a fire which he cannot extinguish. 

Above chart is showing a fearful move. This fear is unfortunately something bigger than recession. Is it the policy shift which chart is sensing?

Remember, US is a creator of capitalism and higher tariff, tussle and tariff war are going to threat of foundation of capitalism. It may sounds odd to you but this is bitter truth. US can negotiate with different countries but ultimate consumers are already under panic. This will comes out as result of shrinking demands, record job loss etc. 

You may found my reasoning quite odd but if you look at stripper index, it is also giving signs of possible recession. 

Please note, so far, I am quoting it as 'possible recession', not a 'recession'. Sole reason for using words like 'possible recession' is mood of US president which wants to go a policy shift. It must be noted that US debt to GDP ratio is 123%. 

In short, I can say that concerns remains alive for US market.