Nifty 50 - Analysis

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NIFTY 21 APRIL 2025 - Technical Analysis : Things look too good to believe for another breakout but will it come?

 

Hello everyone, 

I have already presented my views based on derivative data which is cautiously bullish. Technical set up is no different here. few important points that I would like to mention. 

  • Today will be 8th day from the bottom of 21743. 
  • Nifty has close above 100 DMA and 200 DMA is at 24100 levels. 
  • Most crucial is the closing quote of Nifty. It has closed just at the right point where it can break the support levels of 23850. 
What can traders learn from this, then? The first is that a bright green candle like that merely rules out the prospect of an instant decline. Even if it does, it will merely be referred to as "pullback." A break in the 23500–23450 support band is extremely unlikely.
Let's now discuss the goals and trends. I don't really believe in levels. Momentum is high right now. Admittedly, if we hadn't dropped below the 22,400 mark on April 7, I would have been placing a wager for a new all-time high. I'll be motivated to reach 24300–24400 levels if we have a pullback with a save of 23600 levels.
I have not plotted MACD above but you see on your chart. It is on classic case of divergence. This gave a hint that retails are ready to buy but it may be dump levels by well-informed traders. Surely, this cannot be a pin point levels but it will happen. 
Should a reversal be necessary, the anticipated level at which this will occur is 24400.
In the next month, say until May 20, 2025, I anticipate a lot of surprising events. In my opinion, either a move towards a new all-time high or a break towards the Nifty's 21000 levels are possible.
I have to admit that caution only begins when it breaks 23600. Do not attempt to short this market in a hurry as long as it remains above 23600. Please take note that it will breach 23500 to fall, but those days are not too far off. Therefore, it is best to avoid thinking that way at the moment.
Let us see what is coming next.
Happy trading. 


I’m Praveen Kumar, a seasoned Technical Analyst and stock market trader with over 25 years of experience in the Indian equity and derivatives markets. My passion for numbers and patterns led me to a dual career as a Mathematics Teacher and market technician. I specialize in Technical Analysis, with deep expertise in Elliott Wave Theory, derivatives strategies, and market forecasting. Over the years, my analysis and market views have been featured on NDTV Profit as a financial guest, along with published articles on reputed financial web portals, sharing insights on Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, and stock market trends. As a trader and analyst, I focus on interpreting price action, chart patterns, wave counts, and technical indicators to deliver precise market levels and actionable trade ideas. My approach blends classical charting with modern analysis tools to help traders navigate market volatility. Through VieCapital, I aim to share daily market analysis, trading strategies, and educatio…
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