12 April 2016: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Shall I bet for 7800? It may not be so easy to move UP near 200 DMA.

You must read previous articles and watch the given chart carefully to understand this article completely.

For 12 April 2016: -

On 08 April 2016: FII Net Bought – INR 180.27:  DII Net Sold – INR – 159.01

I squared off my shorts and turn long once Nifty crosses 100 DMA yesterday. This paid me well, very well. Shall I be bullish then? At first sight, I must say that I am not so bullish although I opt trading long. For nifty, 7800 should remain a big challenge for short to long term and we are here and there near to that level.

I still open with my view for 7400. One can trade contra long which was a signal yesterday but do not forward long trades till it surpass NIFTY 200 DMA.

For today’s session, 7700 is a zone of resistance. Even if it manages to cross 7700 then also it will face resistance at 7750 and then at 7800. It means that it has too much resistance to deal with. Below 7630, bears will get welcome. Do not buy fall.

A reader has suggested deleting the paragraph given below. I must say that these are long term charting view with warning sign and hence it deserves to be part of everyday article.

Let me clear what weekly charts are saying. A full 1500 points of fall is possible from 7500 levels. I have no idea if it gives 100% result what it is showing on theory but the target lies near 6000. Sorry, if words hurts you but this is what I feel. I do not see Nifty going at 8000 anymore in easier way.

It looks like H&S pattern is taking its effect. Well, if H&S pattern goes on its true mode then 7200-7100 is the possibility. Meantime Nifty is over sold for short term and intraday chart. This says that market may ignore MACD positive divergence and sooner or later it will hit 7200-7100 levels. After that 6500 will be the figure which people will talk about.

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Strategy for Nifty April future – I am expecting a flat opening but market will run with garden of opportunity today. I am keen to see trades above 7720 if it comes and then I will try to find point to trade long. For second half, if rise try to die near 7780 then I will opt shorting from rise. Let us see how much opportunity comes.  

BANK NIFTY – I have said for resistance of 15800. As BANK Nifty is above 15800 then I plan to avoid shorting. As of now, I find a signal to avoid bank nifty as Nifty is more convincing for long. Due to high beta, Bank nifty can again try to test 16000 levels. Can we expect a buy signal? I feel that it can come but that is not impressive.