31July 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Suggesting for a test of 5228, once it is standing above 5192. Wildness is expected near resistance @ 5228 & 5260. We may see fall from high.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Hope created by all central banks is still dominating the global trend. Well, from today, it is the time for central banks to act on its ‘words of optimism’. Our market has also bounced on the hope of stimulus in Europe (especially to Spain and Italy) and USA. Will those come?

Good part about India is that we have no great expectation from monetary policy review. I can still sense that stock prices are reflecting some optimism.

I have no great idea about working resistances. Technical resistance is at 5228 and then at 5260 < 5278. We may see rise to continue till RBI policy review. Core of my study is that we may see fall from higher levels in second half when it will unexpected.

Technical charts are suggesting that Nifty will have support at 5160-5150 zone. Take a note that EGoM will meet today to discuss ‘drought situation’ in India. I feel that ‘drought package’ to different states can be as high as 50k crs. It is another medium term concern.  

Wave development: -

First view is wave c = 1.618* a = 5343 (Already stated on Friday too in my intraday updates.

Second view is wave c =2.618* a = 5496 (Things can never be so simple in stock market as it looks on charts.)

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Let us explain with Wave 3 – 4847.70 to 5194.65 = 329 points (Up)

76.40 % rise from 5041.70 of wave 3 = 5288, which was roughly the high point of previous day trade.

I like to add one more point. This rally is running from 4770. From a top you need to put support at 38.20% as reversal point. Previously it was coming at 5029, now it is coming at 5090-5100 levels. Now, support if we see a high at 5343 then 38.20% will come @ 5125.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies. 

30 July 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Even after gap up, 5150 may remain tough – tough resistance to cross. PSU banks are ready for more massive slide.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

I have already said that central banks across the globe are playing with fire of stock market. Now DOW JONES is above 13000 levels. I am not going to change my views towards Indian market. This week will be the litmus test of stimulus hopes and stimulus bulls.

If Nifty fails to cross above 5150 then we will see support at 5075. Break below 5075 will create panic test of 5040 > 5015 levels. Cross over of 5152 will result the test of 5192. You can watch the above chart to see the retrenchments.

Do not touch for buy on any single PSU banks in temptation. There can be some further massive slide. There is something wrong. I have already warned about PSU banks many times in past too.

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012 only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012 itself.

Wave development: -

First view is wave c = 1.618* a = 5343 (Already stated on Friday too in my intraday updates.

Second view is wave c =2.618* a = 5496 (Things can never be so simple in stock market as it looks on charts.)

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Let us explain with Wave 3 – 4847.70 to 5194.65 = 329 points (Up)

76.40 % rise from 5041.70 of wave 3 = 5288, which was roughly the high point of previous day trade.

I like to add one more point. This rally is running from 4770. From a top you need to put support at 38.20% as reversal point. Previously it was coming at 5029, now it is coming at 5090-5100 levels. Now, support if we see a high at 5343 then 38.20% will come @ 5125.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies. 

27 July ’12: Nifty Elliott wave Analysis: Mario Dragi’s boost up will not help. Nifty will not cross even 5127. It is a decisive break and expect fall towards 4770 in few weeks.

Today’s outlook –

All stock indices are turning as puppet of central banks. They try to affect Stock marks whenever it turns decisive. A simple message to policy makers,

“Make policies based on economy, not based on stock market. Let the stock market flow in its own tune.” Policy makers across the globe are playing with the fire of stock market. Global indices may have to pay heavy price of this kind of practice. Readers can criticize me for projecting doom days targets but do criticize central banks too. I am asking a question which national media should ask.

Even in India, prime minister has talked about reforms but now waiting is too long. There is no point for him to maintain silence like this. FII has sold INR 1181 crs yesterday and INR 2000 crs in last few days.

In global boost up we may see Nifty at 5100+ levels and Nifty August Future @ 5140. This market will/may fall after that. Look at stocks like INFOSYS, SBIN. Big damage has yet to come in the absence of policy related reform.  

Importance of wave development:

Firstly I like draw your attention towards some mathematics. If I try to draw the a-b-c on charts, it has given me 5078 as strong support. Let us see how: -

Wave ‘a’ begins from 5348.55 and ended at 5169.05. It has magnitude of (5348.55 - 5169.05 = 179.50).

Wave ‘b’ is from 5169.05 to 5257.75. So wave ‘c’ has to begin from 5257.75. If I take 1 to 1 fall then we have a figure, 5257.75 – 179.50 = 5078.25.

25^th July low = 5076.60. I have said this many times in past that wave ‘c’ always has a ratio with wave ‘a’. Those can develop with ratio as 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.618, and 2.618 (Many times known as Golden ratio).

Development of waves = 1.618*179.50+5257.75 = 4967.30

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

26 July ’12: Nifty Elliott wave Analysis: Expect a bounce towards 5160+ with strong support at 5076 levels. It’s threatening for 5000 marks but will it come?

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Firstly I like draw your attention towards some mathematics. If I try to draw the a-b-c on charts, it has given me 5078 as strong support. Let us see how: -

Wave ‘a’ begins from 5348.55 and ended at 5169.05. It has magnitude of (5348.55 - 5169.05 = 179.50).

Wave ‘b’ is from 5169.05 to 5257.75. So wave ‘c’ has to begin from 5257.75. If I take 1 to 1 fall then we have a figure, 5257.75 – 179.50 = 5078.25.

Yesterday’s low was 5076.60. I have said this many times in past that wave ‘c’ always has a ratio with wave ‘a’. Those can develop with ratio as 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.618, and 2.618 (Many times known as Golden ratio).

Today’s outlook –

We all are expecting volatility today. There are some indicators which are suggesting that even expiry may happen with dull trade. Still I am concluding that we should end up near to 5160 but those may come in second half.

Do not short this market at lower end. We will have two important supports; one is at 5090 and other at 5076 itself. If short covering comes (which is likely) then we may expect some better higher levels.

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

25 July ’12: Nifty Elliott wave Analysis: No matter how poor global cues are but we must look for support at 5090-5100 levels. It is last good support.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

From past more than a moth Nifty is not doing much during trading hours. It is just too frustrating for intraday traders. Indian market has denied many negative global cues and even after fall of more than 200 points from high we are doing better than many other global indices.

You can say it is the optimism over reforms. Well, time is running short even for prime minister. I have a view, if reform as to come then perhaps we are at the last levels of index. Break below current levels might be an indication for ‘no reforms’.

For today,

Keep an eye on 5100-5090 levels in gap down. We must not close below those on hourly basis. I cannot conclude anything about the magnitude of fall or recovery after gap down. I have just one conclude and that is related with the above support. Let us see.

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889 

24 July 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: Have a look at 200 DMA which came at 5100 now. As long as we sustain above 5100, expect some recovery. Still recovery will not sustain in coming days.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

From past more than one month of trades, I gave lot of importance on the trajectory of 200 DMA. It starts rising from 5^th July. Now we are close to 200 DMA again. In past also, I have quoted that trading near too 200 DMA can be only the sign of weakness. Although it can result few rebound.

Yesterday, I gave a range of 5127>5118. We run in those ranges. I have not opted to forward short yesterday even though DOW FUTURE was negative by 140 points. So, for today: -

We may come to test 200 DMA but break is not likely to come without a rebound. Magnitude of rebound should be towards 5160 levels. Cross over may give us even 5200. Do not forget that we are very near to derivative expiry.

Break below 5100 will give us 5060. Take a note that no rise is going to sustain for short term. Europe problem or India problem but we will be forced to see a fall. So today should be day for bounce. Let us see how much comes.

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012 only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012 itself.

Wave development : -

First view is wave c = 1.618* a = 5343 (Already stated on Friday too in my intraday updates.

Second view is wave c =2.618* a = 5496 (Things can never be so simple in stock market as it looks on charts.)

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Let us explain with Wave 3 – 4847.70 to 5194.65 = 329 points (Up)

76.40 % rise from 5041.70 of wave 3 = 5288, which was roughly the high point of previous day trade.

I like to add one more point. This rally is running from 4770. From a top you need to put support at 38.20% as reversal point. Previously it was coming at 5029, now it is coming at 5090-5100 levels. Now, support if we see a high at 5343 then 38.20% will come @ 5125.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

(If you think that other readers should also read this article then recommend this on google by clicking g+ link given below).

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates. Link – www.twitter.com/viecapital

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

23 July 2012: Nifty Elliott wave analysis: You can expect a fall towards 5160. Break below 5160 will give target at 5127 and then may be even the test of 200 DMA @ 5096.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

It the completion of wave ‘B’ which was corrective up and just sustain for 2 days. From Friday onwards it was the development of wave ‘C’ which is downward in nature. I have already quoted that break below 5209 should be decisive.

Right now we are looking for the test of 5160. If Nifty start sustaining below 5160 then we will see some major concern as it may result the test of 5127>5118 too.

We generally know that hike in Diesel price can be bad for stock market but this time market will fall if hike does not come. Charts are telling us that if we start trading below 5127 anytime anyday then we will see the retest of 200 DMA which is at 5096.

I have quoted this many times in past also that frequent test of 200 DMA is a sign of weakness.

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012 only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012 itself.

Wave development : -

First view is wave c = 1.618* a = 5343 (Already stated on Friday too in my intraday updates.

Second view is wave c =2.618* a = 5496 (Things can never be so simple in stock market as it looks on charts.)

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Let us explain with Wave 3 – 4847.70 to 5194.65 = 329 points (Up)

76.40 % rise from 5041.70 of wave 3 = 5288, which was roughly the high point of Friday’s trade.

I like to add one more point. This rally is running from 4770. From a top you need to put support at 38.20% as reversal point. Previously it was coming at 5029, now it is coming at 5090-5100 levels. Now, support if we see a high at 5343 then 38.20% will come @ 5125.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

(If you think that other readers should also read this article then recommend this on google by clicking g+ link given below).

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates. Link – www.twitter.com/viecapital

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

20 July ’12: Nifty Elliott wave Analysis: To get a direction in wave ‘B’ or ‘C’, we need to break the range of 5279 to 5209 on either side. Do not expect good reaction about half hearted reforms.

To get a direction in wave ‘B’ or ‘C’, we need to break the range of 5279 to 5209 on either side. Do not expect good reaction about half hearted reforms.  

Today’s outlook: -

Nifty has moved in 25 points of range in the last trading session with a fall in many banking stocks. Now president poll has passed and cabinet approve fewer important measures to boost up economy. Was that sufficient enough? Very clearly, no. We must expect something bigger. Will those come? I am not very sure. There are talks of FDI in retain by august 15.

Waves are suggesting for the continuation of these choppy days. We need to either stand above 5279 or below 5209 to get any better direction.

For today also,

Nifty will have resistance @ 5260 < 5279. IN the lower side we can expect support at 5230 > 5209. I have no great sense as of now for market moving higher.

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889

19 July ’12: Nifty Elliott wave Analysis: Completion of down wave ‘A’ @ 5169 (~close to 5160). Expect corrective up wave ‘B’. Minimum expected target should be 5275.

Completion of down wave ‘A’ @ 5169 (~close to 5160). Expect corrective up wave ‘B’. Minimum expected target should be 5275.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

It was quoted yesterday as -

“It is true and must be noted that after the completion of wave ’A’, we will get a bounce to form wave ‘B’. Questions are when and from which levels. I must add that those are not clear yet so trend is corrective down.”

During trading hours, we have seen a low at 5169 and a bounce. Now we can plot end of wave ‘A’ at 5169 and expect a bounce to form corrective up wave ‘B’.

Probable magnitude of wave ‘B’ = A*0.618 = 5279. This should be minimum extension of wave ‘B’. Technical support will stand at 5209 and 5169 itself.

There are talks of reform after president poll. We have cabinet meeting today evening to discuss about reforms. It is the day which Indian market is waiting from past 3 weeks. Let us see what’s outcome.

I must be very clear that I am not hoping anything big. You can expect some hike in Diesel price which may INR 2-3 per liter. Even it is not sufficient.

What we have successfully forecasted?

1. 4766 for bounce. We got bounce from 4770
2. 5343 for reversal. We got dip from 5348

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889 

18 July ’12: Nifty Elliott wave Analysis: Close near 5190 twice in two days. I have already said for 5160 to fill gap. Expect fall to continue to for wave ‘A’.

Close near 5190 twice in two days. I have already said for 5160 to fill gap. Expect fall to continue to for wave ‘A’.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Do I need to change my views on Nifty? I do not feel the need yet. Lot of people believes for a bounce as fall is coming with low volume. Well, just one parameter is not sufficient to conclude for bounce. Wave is in the development of wave ‘A’.

It is true and must be noted that after the completion of wave ’A’, we will get a bounce to form wave ‘B’. Questions are when and from which levels. I must add that those are not clear yet so trend is corrective down.

My first expectation is for the target of 5160 and then at 5127>5118. One of these might be suitable levels for bounce but there are no such signs yet.

Technical resistance will be at 5230 and then at 5260. Today is only 7^th day after hitting 5348. I am keeping biasing negative.

What we have successfully forecasted?

1. 4766 for bounce. We got bounce from 4770
2. 5343 for reversal. We got dip from 5348

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889 

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Nifty hit a low at 5190 yesterday and that come with a failure at 5250. If you remember, 5190 was first impulsive top before the final cross on higher side.

So, is it important levels? 101% yes. If it trades below 5190 then we should visit the levels of 5160. I am not concluding that a choppy market can give us a signal to buy. We have final resistance at 5275 levels only.

Market situation may remains troubling for upcoming few days and weeks too. Selling may not intensified immediately but it is expected to come in a slow and steady manner.

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

Our intraday update will begin from 9:30 am onwards and this article will be updated every hours. Do visit again at www.viecapital.com

Read www.viecapital.com for stocks views

Follow us on twitter a/c 'viecapital' to get intraday updates.

Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

Mobile number – 09893369889 

16 July ’12: Nifty Elliott wave Analysis: Global boost up will not help India. As long as Nifty is staying below 5275, we can hope for 5160 and then 5127.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

It has failed to cross 5275 marks on Friday and so scope for fall remains open. Technical charts are suggesting for a dip towards 5160 and then 5127. Sooner or later we will hit 5000 marks too.

Nifty will have stiff resistance at 5275 and then at 5300.

Take a note that I have already quoted two weeks back that we may not see any great extension above 5343 and we are slipping from 5348.

Even in case of recovery we have forecasted for strong support at 5090. Now pictures are changing. I am not advising to pick stocks in fall.

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

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Praveen Kumar

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