18 July ’12: Nifty Elliott wave Analysis: Close near 5190 twice in two days. I have already said for 5160 to fill gap. Expect fall to continue to for wave ‘A’.

Close near 5190 twice in two days. I have already said for 5160 to fill gap. Expect fall to continue to for wave ‘A’.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

Do I need to change my views on Nifty? I do not feel the need yet. Lot of people believes for a bounce as fall is coming with low volume. Well, just one parameter is not sufficient to conclude for bounce. Wave is in the development of wave ‘A’.

It is true and must be noted that after the completion of wave ’A’, we will get a bounce to form wave ‘B’. Questions are when and from which levels. I must add that those are not clear yet so trend is corrective down.

My first expectation is for the target of 5160 and then at 5127>5118. One of these might be suitable levels for bounce but there are no such signs yet.

Technical resistance will be at 5230 and then at 5260. Today is only 7^th day after hitting 5348. I am keeping biasing negative.

What we have successfully forecasted?

1. 4766 for bounce. We got bounce from 4770
2. 5343 for reversal. We got dip from 5348

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

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Praveen Kumar

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