19 July ’12: Nifty Elliott wave Analysis: Completion of down wave ‘A’ @ 5169 (~close to 5160). Expect corrective up wave ‘B’. Minimum expected target should be 5275.

Completion of down wave ‘A’ @ 5169 (~close to 5160). Expect corrective up wave ‘B’. Minimum expected target should be 5275.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

It was quoted yesterday as -

“It is true and must be noted that after the completion of wave ’A’, we will get a bounce to form wave ‘B’. Questions are when and from which levels. I must add that those are not clear yet so trend is corrective down.”

During trading hours, we have seen a low at 5169 and a bounce. Now we can plot end of wave ‘A’ at 5169 and expect a bounce to form corrective up wave ‘B’.

Probable magnitude of wave ‘B’ = A*0.618 = 5279. This should be minimum extension of wave ‘B’. Technical support will stand at 5209 and 5169 itself.

There are talks of reform after president poll. We have cabinet meeting today evening to discuss about reforms. It is the day which Indian market is waiting from past 3 weeks. Let us see what’s outcome.

I must be very clear that I am not hoping anything big. You can expect some hike in Diesel price which may INR 2-3 per liter. Even it is not sufficient.

What we have successfully forecasted?

1. 4766 for bounce. We got bounce from 4770
2. 5343 for reversal. We got dip from 5348

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

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Thanks & Regards,

Praveen Kumar

Mail id – Praveen@viecapital.com

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