16 July ’12: Nifty Elliott wave Analysis: Global boost up will not help India. As long as Nifty is staying below 5275, we can hope for 5160 and then 5127.

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Today’s outlook: -

It has failed to cross 5275 marks on Friday and so scope for fall remains open. Technical charts are suggesting for a dip towards 5160 and then 5127. Sooner or later we will hit 5000 marks too.

Nifty will have stiff resistance at 5275 and then at 5300.

Take a note that I have already quoted two weeks back that we may not see any great extension above 5343 and we are slipping from 5348.

Even in case of recovery we have forecasted for strong support at 5090. Now pictures are changing. I am not advising to pick stocks in fall.

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.

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Praveen Kumar

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