26 July ’12: Nifty Elliott wave Analysis: Expect a bounce towards 5160+ with strong support at 5076 levels. It’s threatening for 5000 marks but will it come?

You must read previous articles and watch above chart carefully to understand this article completely.

Firstly I like draw your attention towards some mathematics. If I try to draw the a-b-c on charts, it has given me 5078 as strong support. Let us see how: -

Wave ‘a’ begins from 5348.55 and ended at 5169.05. It has magnitude of (5348.55 - 5169.05 = 179.50).

Wave ‘b’ is from 5169.05 to 5257.75. So wave ‘c’ has to begin from 5257.75. If I take 1 to 1 fall then we have a figure, 5257.75 – 179.50 = 5078.25.

Yesterday’s low was 5076.60. I have said this many times in past that wave ‘c’ always has a ratio with wave ‘a’. Those can develop with ratio as 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.618, and 2.618 (Many times known as Golden ratio).

Today’s outlook –

We all are expecting volatility today. There are some indicators which are suggesting that even expiry may happen with dull trade. Still I am concluding that we should end up near to 5160 but those may come in second half.

Do not short this market at lower end. We will have two important supports; one is at 5090 and other at 5076 itself. If short covering comes (which is likely) then we may expect some better higher levels.

Best technical indicator of NIFTY: (You must note it) – 200 days moving average – Watch the trajectory. After 20 May 2011, it started rising from 5 June 2012only. (It was not rising even in Jan-Feb rise). So the rally continues from 5 June 2012itself.

Wave development: -

I am revising above wave plotting a little looking on current development. I marked end of wave 3 at 5194.60 and hence wave 4 is automatically revised at 5194 (raised from 5041.70). You must be remembering that I have quoted 5090 when it was saving.

Take another calculation, wave 1 = 4770.35 to 4898.95 = 128.60 points (Up)

Wave 5 has to comparable with wave 1 or wave 3.

Consider first with wave 1 – Wave 5 = 2.618* wave 1 = end up 5378. So we can say that 5378 will act as tougher hurdle to cross.

Wave 5 may move in accordance with wave 3. If we see the beginning of wave 3, it was already suggesting for strong up move. Advance and cross over of 5343 will have two important figures, one is 5378 and then 1.618 times from the beginning of wave 2, i.e. 5409.

So you should look for 5343 as first hurdle and 5378 as second hurdle. Wave theory suggests that fifth wave advance can continue till 5343 but I am doubtful about 5378. Although I should not close any views completely so I will keep 5496 in my studies.