Nifty 50 Expiry Outlook: Can We Expect a Bounce Before the Fall? | 15 July 2025

Hello Traders! The Nifty 50 index has seen a sharp fall over the last two sessions, breaking out of its rising channel, and heading towards oversold conditions. Many traders are now wondering whether a bounce is on the cards before expiry, or if the fall will deepen immediately. In this detailed analysis, we’ll dissect the technical indicators, option chain data, moving averages, RSI signals, and Max Pain shift to understand the most likely scenario. Let’s dive in!

Technical Highlights:

• RSI (14) on the hourly chart has dipped to 28.64, an oversold zone that usually triggers a short bounce.
• The index has broken out of a rising wedge pattern, a classically bearish formation.
• Heavy Call Option Open Interest (OI) has built up at 25400, 25500, and 25600, creating a ceiling for any sharp upmove.
• Max Pain has shifted down to 25200, indicating expiry pinning could happen near this level.
• Support lies at 25000, with strong Put OI build-up, and a decisive breach here could trigger a sharper sell-off.

 Expected Market Move:

Given the current market structure, we may witness a technical bounce towards 25200–25300 levels in the next session or two. This move will likely come from short-covering and some expiry-week adjustments. However, traders must note that major resistance sits at 25400–25500, where fresh call writing has emerged, and any rally should face selling pressure there.

Option Chain Analysis:

The Option Chain data shows strong support at 25000PE, while aggressive Call writing at 25400CE, 25500CE, and 25600CE limits the upside. Max Pain adjusting towards 25200 signals expiry pinning near that mark.

 Trade Plan:

• Look for a bounce towards 25200–25300 and consider selling higher strike CE options like 25400CE and 25500CE for expiry.
• Avoid fresh longs above 25350, as strong resistance lies overhead.
• If Nifty breaches 25000 decisively, expect a sharp drop towards 24900/24750.

 Conclusion:

While technical indicators like RSI and Max Pain suggest a short bounce, the broader trend remains weak. Traders should remain cautious as a bigger fall towards 24700–24500 could emerge next week if Nifty fails to reclaim 25400. Use every bounce as an opportunity to lighten longs and build controlled shorts.

Stay disciplined and manage risk effectively — expiry week moves can be sharp and tricky!

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