Nifty 50 Expiry Analysis and 11 July 2025 Trade Plan | Option Data, RSI Divergence
The Nifty 50 index witnessed a volatile expiry on 10 July 2025, closing at 25,355.25, down by 120.85 points (-0.47%). Despite a bullish attempt in the morning, the index slipped below 25,400 due to heavy call writing and visible RSI divergence on the daily chart. Gift Nifty is currently trading nearly 100 points lower, indicating a weak start for the upcoming 11 July session. Let’s decode the market internals and prepare a solid expiry T+1 plan.
Nifty 50 Option Chain and Open Interest Analysis
Analyzing the Option Chain data for 17 July 2025, we noticed significant put writing at 25,200 and 25,400, while call writers dominated the 25,600–26,000 range. Highest call OI stood at 25,400, marking it a crucial resistance, while put writers defended 25,300 and 25,200. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) dipped below 1 post-expiry, reflecting a neutral to bearish setup for tomorrow.
Technical Chart Outlook and RSI Divergence
The daily chart still shows Nifty moving inside a rising channel, but with visible RSI bearish divergence since May 2025. The RSI cooled off to 55.82, indicating a neutral bias but with a warning of possible weakness if 25,200 breaks. Key support zones now stand at 25,200 and 24,940, while resistance remains at 25,400 and 25,600.
My Iron Condor Position Greeks
I carried an Iron Condor for the 17 July expiry with the following Greeks:
- Net Delta: +1.66 (almost delta-neutral)
- Net Theta: +309.65 (positive time decay benefit)
- Net Vega: -454.19 (short vega — drop in IV will favour me)
The position remains manageable overnight, but adjustments may be needed if Nifty gaps below 25,200.
Expiry T+1 (11 July 2025) Trade Plan
- If Nifty opens flat to mildly gap-down at 25,250–25,280, wait for early OI build-up at 25,200 and 25,400.
- Breakout above 25,400: Long CE scalp up to 25,500–25,600.
- Break below 25,200: Add PE positions or shift IC lower, targeting 25,000–24,940 zone.
- Watch for IV spikes over 12% — reduce position size if volatility explodes.
Conclusion
With Gift Nifty down 100 points, caution is warranted for tomorrow. However, the positive theta and near-neutral delta position offers a buffer for expiry T+1. Keep a close watch on early option chain build-up at 9:20 AM, as it will decide the directional momentum. Follow my real-time analysis on Twitter for intraday updates.
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