Nifty 07 July2025 l Nifty 50 Technical Indicators Point to Profit Booking Risk | Rising Channel Analysis for 10 July Expiry
Comprehensive Nifty 50 technical analysis for 6 July 2025 covering RSI divergence, Bollinger Band resistance, Max Pain, option chain OI trends.
Hello Traders! Nifty continues its move inside a rising channel, but signs of exhaustion are emerging at higher levels. In today’s blog, we’ll dive into the latest technical chart patterns, RSI divergence, Bollinger Bands, moving averages, and 10 July weekly option chain data. Perfect for positional and expiry scalpers — let’s break it down!
Key Technical Highlights:
- Rising Channel: Continuing since March 2025, currently testing upper boundary.
- Bollinger Bands: Nifty at upper band — risk of reversal.
- RSI (14): 61.01 indicating bearish divergence.
- 20 SMA: Support at 25,165 | 50 SMA: at 24,596.
- MACD momentum flattening — weakening upside.
Indicators & Derivative Parameters Suggesting a Fall in Nifty
On the Chart:
| Indicator | Current Signal | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| RSI Divergence (14) | 61.01 with repeated bearish divergence | Weakening upward momentum, signals exhaustion |
| Bollinger Bands | Price touching upper band | Indicates overbought, possible mean reversion |
| MACD | Flattening momentum in last readings | Loss of bullish momentum |
| Rising Channel | Price near upper channel resistance | Probable profit booking zone |
| Volume | Lack of breakout volume | Weak confirmation on rise |
Derivative Data (10 July Expiry):
| Parameter | Observation | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Max Call OI at 25,600 | Heavy CE writing at 25,600 strike | Strong overhead resistance |
| Max Pain at 25,450 | Spot trading above max pain | Market tends to drift toward max pain in expiry week |
| PCR (Put/Call Ratio) | Near neutral or slightly declining | Not supporting aggressive upside |
| IV (Implied Volatility) | High and rising on OTM Calls like 25,600 CE | Buyers cautious, market expecting capped upside |
| PE OI Build-up at 25,300 & 25,000 | Strong hedging at lower levels | If breached, could trigger sharp fall |
Summary: Why Fall is Possible
- Bearish RSI divergence near overbought zones
- Nifty hugging upper Bollinger Band without breakout volume
- Max Call OI buildup at 25,600–25,800 shows stiff resistance
- Max Pain at 25,450 suggests expiry week drift downward
- Rising IV on higher CE strikes signals upside nervousness
- No aggressive Put writing above 25,500 — weak bullish conviction
Expected Downside Trigger Levels
- 25,650–25,750: Overhead resistance zone
- Break below 25,450: Confirming drift toward 25,300 / 25,150
10 July Weekly Option Data:
| Strike | CE OI (lakh) | PE OI (lakh) | IV Trend | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25,500 | 52.97 | 16.10 | Rising | CE writers cautious |
| 25,600 | 40.30 | 9.03 | Rising | Heavy CE resistance |
| 25,300 | 13.43 | 50.96 | Rising | Strong PE base |
| 25,000 | 7.23 | 41.32 | Steady | Hedge zone |
Expiry Week Trade Levels:
- Bullish Breakout: Above 25,800
- Rangebound: 25,300 – 25,750
- Bearish Breakdown: Below 25,300 — Target 25,150
Conclusion:
The Nifty 50 index faces tough resistance at 25,750–25,800 within a rising channel. RSI and Bollinger Bands indicate a profit booking risk. Option chain data signals expiry week volatility. Keep trades hedged or scalp light and stay alert around 25,650–25,800.
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