30 July 2025 : If it can maintains levels above 24880 then expect 25000 again but be cautious at higher levels. It will fall sooner!!!
Nifty 50 is at a critical juncture as of July 29, 2025, with prices bouncing from support levels but trading under the shadow of a larger Head and Shoulders (H&S) structure. Technical indicators and Option Chain data suggest a likely short-term bounce toward 25200, but also warn of a potential breakdown that could trigger a sharp fall. Traders and especially option sellers need to tread cautiously as we head into a volatile expiry week.
Technical Overview
- Current Price: 24,821
- Short-Term Resistance: 25,000 – 25,200
- Support Zone: 24,500 – 24,600 (H&S neckline)
- RSI: 42 – Slightly oversold, possible bounce
- MACD: Bearish crossover but flattening
- 50 EMA: 24,970 (resistance)
- 200 EMA: 23,900 (long-term support)
Head & Shoulders Pattern Insight
The pattern forms with:
- Left Shoulder: Early June peak ~25,200
- Head: Mid-June high ~25,650
- Right Shoulder: Recent 25,150 rejection
- Neckline: ~24,500 – Critical zone
If 24,500 breaks, the measured target of this bearish pattern lies around 23,600–23,800.
Option Chain Analysis (29 July 2025)
- 24,800 PE: 1.48L OI, +26K – Strong support
- 25,000 CE: 1.06L OI, but -18.7K change – Short covering
- Max Pain: Around 24,800–25,000
- IV: Moderately elevated (implied volatility pricing in event risk)
Market Psychology
Despite recent selling, option writers are repositioning for a **pullback**, evident from short covering at higher strike Calls and aggressive writing at 24,800 Puts. However, a decisive breakdown below 24,500 may trigger panic unwinding and crash-like setups.
Support & Resistance Levels
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| 24,500 (H&S neckline) | 24,950 (50 EMA) |
| 24,300 (previous swing low) | 25,200 (pattern shoulder) |
Trade Zones
| Range | Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 24,800–25,100 | Neutral to Bullish | Sell 24,800 PE / Bear Call above 25,200 |
| Below 24,500 | Bearish | Sell 24,800 CE + Buy 25,000 CE (Bear Call Spread) |
Best Option Seller Strategy for Fall
Assuming Nifty falls from 25,000 to 24,500, and you want to remain on the sell side with protection:
Bear Call Spread (Safe)
- Sell 24,800 CE @ ₹115
- Buy 25,000 CE @ ₹45
- Net Credit: ₹70
- Max Loss: ₹130 (if Nifty closes above 25,000)
- Break-even: 24,870
- Capital Blocked: ₹10,000 (approx.)
- Return: Up to 70% on capital in 2–3 sessions
Conclusion
While technical indicators hint at a short-term bounce toward 25,100–25,200, the broader structure remains **bearish** with the **Head and Shoulders neckline at 24,500** acting as a decisive level. A break below may invite a larger fall. Option sellers should capitalize on volatility by deploying defined-risk strategies like Bear Call Spreads and monitor OI shifts. Stay hedged, stay informed.
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