Nifty 50 Technical Breakout and derivative trade plan 27 June 2025

Published by Vie Capital | 26 June 2025

 Introduction

Today, Nifty 50 rallied 304.25 points (+1.21%) to close at 25,549.00, registering a decisive breakout above the crucial 25,300 resistance zone. This bullish move comes ahead of the weekly expiry and signals further upside potential. Backed by strong derivatives data, supportive technical indicators and rising moving averages, this breakout adds fresh momentum to the ongoing uptrend. Here’s a comprehensive analysis with expiry trade strategies.

 Chart Pattern and Price Action Highlights

• Confirmed breakout above 25,300 on strong volumes.
• Immediate upside targets: 25,800–26,000.
• Support zone shifted to 25,200–25,300.
• Volume surge confirms buyer strength.

 Key Technical Indicators

• RSI (14): 66.33 — bullish but near overbought with possible divergence risks.
• MACD (12,26,9): Bullish crossover sustained, momentum remains firm.
• 20-Day EMA: Rising near 24,950 — immediate dynamic support.
• 50-Day EMA: 24,300 — uptrend confirmation.
• 200-Day EMA: 23,400 — long-term bullish trend intact.

 Derivatives Data Summary

• Put Call Ratio (PCR): 1.40–1.45 — strong bullish undertone.
• Max Call Open Interest: 26,000 CE — expiry resistance.
• Max Put Open Interest: 25,300 PE and 25,500 PE — solid support base.
• Max Pain: 25,500 — where most option buyers lose and sellers profit.

Final Technical Summary

• Trend Bias: Strongly Bullish
• Max Pain: 25,500
• Range for 27 June Expiry: 25,450 – 25,700
• Resistance: 25,700 and 26,000
• Supports: 25,450 and 25,300

 Nifty Derivative Trade Plan | 27 June 2025

Key Levels:

• Support 1: 25,450
• Support 2: 25,300
• Resistance 1: 25,700
• Resistance 2: 26,000

Intraday Futures Strategy:

• Morning Trade (9:15–11:00 AM): Buy near 25,450–25,480. Target 25,600–25,630. Stop-loss 25,420.
• Mid-Day (11:00–1:15 PM): Avoid fresh positions. Monitor IV and OI changes.
• Post-Lunch (1:30 PM onwards): If above 25,600 with strong OI addition at 25,700 CE, buy for 25,700–25,750 target. SL 25,560.

Option Writing Strategy:

• Sell 25,300 PE (premium 12–16)
• Sell 26,000 CE (premium 8–12)
• Deploy only if Nifty holds between 25,500–25,600 till 1 PM.

Caution:

• Avoid longs above 25,700 unless 26,000 CE unwinding starts.
• Monitor VIX spike near 1:30 PM — expiry volatility.
• Keep strict stop-loss on all expiry trades.

Conclusion

Nifty 50’s breakout above 25,300 signals bullish continuation into expiry, with derivative positioning supporting further upside. However, expiry day volatility can trigger sharp intraday moves. Stay alert near 25,700–26,000 and use the outlined levels and expiry strategies to manage risk effectively. Trade with discipline and position sizing in mind.

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