Nifty 50 Technical Analysis for June 20, 2025: Key Levels & Expiry View

Nifty 50 Outlook for June 20, 2025: Technical & Derivative Analysis

Introduction: In today’s Nifty 50 analysis for June 20, 2025, we review the latest technical indicators, moving averages, RSI divergence, option chain data, and FII/DII positions. With expiry around the corner, the index appears to be at a crucial juncture. Let’s decode what the numbers suggest.

Price and Moving Averages

• CMP: 24,793.25
• 20 SMA: 24,850.57
• 50 SMA: 24,412.97
• 100 SMA: 24,078.55
• 200 SMA: 23,707.04

Summary: Price remains above longer-term moving averages, but the recent drop below the 20-SMA signals short-term weakness.

RSI Analysis

Current RSI (14): 51.65

A clear bearish divergence has formed since April, reflecting weakening momentum despite higher price highs. This demands caution from bulls.

Option Chain Analysis (19 June 2025)

• Highest OI (Calls): 25,000 CE – 3.88 lakh
• Highest OI (Puts): 24,700 PE – 2.96 lakh
• Put-Call Ratio (PCR): 0.91

Interpretation: Significant resistance at 25,000, with immediate support at 24,700-24,800. PCR below 1 hints at cautious undertone.

 FII/DII Derivative Positions

• FII Net Index Futures: -6,732 contracts (short bias)
• Heavy Call writing seen at: 24,900 and 25,000 strikes

DII activity positive in cash segment but light in derivatives.

Derivative Rollover Trend

Nifty Rollovers: 42.3% (slightly below last month’s pace)

Insight: Traders are hesitant to carry aggressive longs into July.

Key Technical Levels for June 20, 2025

Trade Bias and Strategy

Bias: Sideways to Mildly Bearish

Likely Range: 24,700 – 24,900

Trade Idea: Sell 24,900 CE and Buy 25,100 CE for expiry; or short futures below 24,800 for 24,700 target.

Conclusion:

Nifty continues to face headwinds near 25,000. RSI divergence, weak PCR, call writing, and cautious FII positioning indicate a possible range-bound to weak expiry around 24,700–24,900. Aggressive longs should avoid until a close above 25,000.