June 30, 2025 | Nifty 50 Outlook: Will Momentum Hold Above 25600?

Nifty 50 continues its bullish rally, breaking out from a major consolidation zone and heading toward fresh highs. As of June 29, 2025, the index has hit 25,637.80, comfortably above the psychological 25,600 mark. In this post, we break down the technical indicators, Fibonacci extension levels, RSI divergence, and option chain data to help you navigate the markets better.

Key Technical Levels

• Support: 25,500, 25,200, 24,400
• Resistance: 26,000 (option wall), 25,955 (Fibonacci 2.0)
• Trend: Bullish with momentum intact

 RSI & Divergence

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing 70, indicating overbought territory, yet showing no fresh divergence. Previous bearish divergence has been invalidated by the recent price surge. Momentum remains in favour of the bulls.

 Fibonacci Extension Targets

Measured from the swing low of 21,756 to the high of 24,756:

• 1.414 Extension: 24,725.30 – broken
• 1.618 Extension: 25,153.60 – cleared
• 2.000 Extension: 25,955.60 – next target

Option Chain Analysis – July 3 Expiry

Data shows a strong Put OI buildup at 25,500–25,600, indicating solid support. Call writers at 26,000 could resist further upside unless unwound. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) stands at 1.19, indicating a hedged yet bullish stance.

 Detailed July 3 Option Chain Breakdown

The latest Option Chain for July 3, 2025 expiry gives us deep insight into where market participants are placing their bets.

• ATM Strike (25,600):
  – Put OI: 9.16 lakh | Call OI: 8.12 lakh
  – IV (PE): ~11.5% | IV (CE): ~10.3%
  This zone remains the strongest pivot point and a battle area between bulls and bears.
• Support Zone:
  – 25,500 PE OI: 10.7 lakh – massive base
  – IV: ~11.2% suggests premium stability and lower downside fear
• Resistance Zone:
  – 26,000 CE OI: ~8.1 lakh – major Call wall
  – IV: ~12.1% implies writers demand higher compensation for risk
• Total PCR (Put/Call Ratio): ~1.19 – still in bullish zone

In summary, the support is building near 25,500, and unless we see a fresh round of aggressive Call writing above 26,000, the trend looks poised to continue. Higher IVs at OTM Calls suggest traders are bracing for a potential breakout, especially if 25,800–26,000 are breached with volume.

Global & Domestic Sentiment

Stable global markets, strong performance in the Dow Jones and Nasdaq, and low inflationary signals all support India’s equity momentum. Domestically, expectations ahead of the budget and sectoral strength in Banks and IT are providing a bullish backdrop.

Trading Strategy Suggestions

• Long Positional: Stay long above 25,600. Target 25,950–26,100.
• Buy on Dip: Ideal re-entry near 25,500 with SL at 25,400.
• Watch for Reversal: Only if 26,000 acts as a ceiling with strong Call OI re-adding.

 Conclusion

The Nifty 50 appears poised for further upside as it rides strong momentum above a well-established breakout zone. Unless there’s a significant reversal or OI shift, the index could test 25,950–26,000 in the coming sessions. Traders should remain flexible, use stop losses wisely, and monitor intraday OI movements closely. The market tone remains optimistic heading into July 2025.

Follow @viecapital on Twitter for Live Market Analysis