Nifty 50 Expiry Today – June 19, 2025: FOMC Impact, Key Levels, Chart Pattern, Trade Strategy
The Nifty 50 enters expiry day on June 19, 2025, with the index locked in a volatile range between 24,500 and 25,000. The day holds significance not just because of monthly options expiry, but also due to tonight’s U.S. FOMC meeting, which could induce volatility in the overnight SGX and global cues. With technical indicators flashing mixed signals and intraday ranges tightening, traders should be prepared for sharp directional moves during the last trading hour.
FOMC Meeting Alert: What to Expect
The US Fed is expected to maintain the current interest rate, but hawkish tones or surprise policy hints could spike global volatility. Be prepared for overnight gaps that may impact Thursday’s opening.
Technical Indicators
- RSI (Daily): Showing bearish divergence – indicating fatigue near highs
- MACD: Neutral zone
- Supertrend: Just turned red on hourly charts
Moving Averages
- 21 EMA: 24,780 – near-term support
- 50 EMA: 24,500 – mid-term pivot
- 200 SMA: 24,200 – long-term support
Chart Pattern Observation
On the daily chart, Nifty seems to be forming a distribution zone near 25,200. This level has seen repeated rejection, forming a potential double-top pattern. The price remains sandwiched between 24,500–25,200.
Option Chain (As of June 18 Close)
| Strike | Call OI | Put OI | View |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25,000 | Highest | Low | Resistance |
| 24,800 | High | High | Magnet |
| 24,500 | Low | Highest | Support |
FII Options Data suggests:
- Net Call writing at 25,000.
- Put writing at 24,500–24,700.
- Risk of volatility remains due to gamma positioning.
Nifty Future – Trade Setup
- Rangebound: Sell 24,800 CE and PE (straddle) if premiums are above 70
- Breakout above 25,050: Go long with SL at 24,900
- Breakdown below 24,500: Go short with SL at 24,650
Nifty Future Trade Plan (Intraday)
| Condition | Trade Action |
|---|---|
| Opening flat / inside range | Sell OTM straddles near 24,800–24,900 |
| Breakout above 25,050 | Long Nifty Futures with 24,950 SL |
| Breakdown below 24,700 | Short Futures with 24,800 SL |
| High IV / low move | Buy butterfly or iron condor near ATM |
Volatility & Expiry Day Warnings
Be alert for gamma spikes post 2:45 PM and IV crush if market consolidates. Avoid naked options due to unpredictable moves near FOMC outcome. Auto square-off risk increases post 3:25 PM, so exit before 3:15.
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@viecapital_Conclusion – Nifty’s Expiry Game Plan
As Nifty trades within a tight expiry range of 24,500–25,000, the focus remains on managing risk and maximizing theta decay. With the FOMC meeting looming large, expect potential after-market volatility. Maintain strict discipline and adapt your strategy to price behavior and option data.
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