Is a Nifty Top Around 25,200 Before a Major Correction? FIIs Seem to Hint So!

As we enter June 2025, the Nifty 50 is hovering near 24,850, approaching the psychological 25,200 zone — a critical Elliott Wave target I’ve been tracking. While retailers continue chasing fresh highs, there’s a visible divergence unfolding: FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) are aggressively shorting index futures while remaining net buyers in equities.

Could they be foreseeing a sharp reversal? Let’s uncover the data.

 3 Strong Reasons to Suspect a Near-Term Market Top:

1.  Elliott Wave Structure Completion:
   Nifty’s rally since the March lows appears to be in its final 5th wave. Historically, 5th waves trigger sudden reversals. The anticipated top lies around 25,200, a possible exhaustion zone.
2. FIIs’ Index Futures Positioning:
   While being net buyers in cash equities, FIIs have consistently added short positions in Nifty Futures through May 2025. This hedging move often precedes corrections.
3.  Overstretched Technical Indicators:
   • RSI (14) on the daily chart near 80 — overbought territory.
   • MACD remains bullish but showing negative divergence on hourly timeframes.
   • Bollinger Bands at maximum stretch, signaling increased volatility ahead.

FII Activity Trend: May 1 – June 1, 2025

As shown, FIIs maintained consistent equity buying while sharply increasing short positions in index futures — a cautionary divergence.

Conclusion

Markets rarely move in a straight line. When heavyweight players like FIIs hedge aggressively, it often signals that a volatility spike and possible downside are near. Retail investors should exercise caution around the 25,200 level and adopt risk-management strategies for long positions.

Also read these - 

My Elliott wave counts

Block deals signalling top 

Stay tuned — I’ll post fresh Elliott Wave counts and real-time index insights as this unfolds!

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