24 June 2025 : Nifty 50 Outlook for 26 June 2025 Expiry: Technical Analysis, Option Chain Data & Bearish Trade Setups
Detailed Nifty 50 analysis for 25 June 2025 expiry. Complete technical chart patterns, RSI divergence, India VIX, option chain buildup.
Nifty 50 Technical & Options Analysis: 26 June 2025 Expiry Outlook
Introduction:
The Nifty 50 index witnessed notable volatility ahead of the 26 June 2025 expiry, closing at 24,971.90, down by 140.50 points. Amidst global market uncertainty, a crucial technical setup is unfolding. In this post, we’ll dissect key technical indicators, option chain data, FII-DII positions, and RSI divergence to outline tomorrow's possible moves, especially the risk of a sharp fall toward the 24800-24650 zone.
Technical Analysis & Chart Pattern
- Nifty closed just above its 20-day SMA at 24,862.07, hinting at a critical support test.
- Clear RSI bearish divergence at 55.07 signals weakening momentum.
- Multiple rejections from 25,100–25,200 resistance confirm seller dominance.
- Potential lower high formation in play — a break below 24,860 could trigger a rapid decline toward 24,600.
Option Chain Analysis (as of today’s close)
- Maximum CE OI at 25,200 acts as strong overhead resistance.
- Maximum PE OI at 24,900 serves as crucial support, with fresh build-up seen at 24,800 PE.
- Falling PCR towards 0.90 suggests increasing bearish sentiment.
FII-DII Derivative Activity
- FIIs maintain net short positions in index futures.
- DII buying continues, offering intraday support around 24,800.
Volatility Outlook (India VIX)
The India VIX remained elevated around 14.2–14.5, keeping markets prone to sharp 100–150 point intraday swings. Expect expiry-day volatility spikes if 24,860–24,800 support breaks.
Strategy Recommendation for 25 June 2025
If breakdown below 24,860:
- Bear Put Spread: Buy 24,900 PE, Sell 24,600 PE.
- Add 2 lots of 24,700 PE post-breakout below 24,860.
If range-bound:
- Iron Condor: Sell 25,100 CE, Buy 25,300 CE, Sell 24,800 PE, Buy 24,600 PE.
Key Intraday Levels
- Breakdown trigger: 24,860
- Bounce barrier: 25,050–25,100
- Expiry Bias: 24,900
Conclusion:
Technical and derivatives data suggest a mild bearish bias with risk of sharp fall if 24,860 breaks. Option chain resistance at 25,200 and falling PCR confirm market fragility. Traders should deploy bear put spreads or iron condors based on early market action tomorrow. Monitor RSI breach below 50, VIX rise, and OI shifts as triggers.
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