24 June 2025 : Nifty 50 Outlook for 26 June 2025 Expiry: Technical Analysis, Option Chain Data & Bearish Trade Setups

Detailed Nifty 50 analysis for 25 June 2025 expiry. Complete technical chart patterns, RSI divergence, India VIX, option chain buildup.
Nifty 50 Technical & Options Analysis: 26 June 2025 Expiry Outlook

Introduction:
The Nifty 50 index witnessed notable volatility ahead of the 26 June 2025 expiry, closing at 24,971.90, down by 140.50 points. Amidst global market uncertainty, a crucial technical setup is unfolding. In this post, we’ll dissect key technical indicators, option chain data, FII-DII positions, and RSI divergence to outline tomorrow's possible moves, especially the risk of a sharp fall toward the 24800-24650 zone.

Technical Analysis & Chart Pattern

  • Nifty closed just above its 20-day SMA at 24,862.07, hinting at a critical support test.
  • Clear RSI bearish divergence at 55.07 signals weakening momentum.
  • Multiple rejections from 25,100–25,200 resistance confirm seller dominance.
  • Potential lower high formation in play — a break below 24,860 could trigger a rapid decline toward 24,600.

Option Chain Analysis (as of today’s close)

  • Maximum CE OI at 25,200 acts as strong overhead resistance.
  • Maximum PE OI at 24,900 serves as crucial support, with fresh build-up seen at 24,800 PE.
  • Falling PCR towards 0.90 suggests increasing bearish sentiment.

FII-DII Derivative Activity

  • FIIs maintain net short positions in index futures.
  • DII buying continues, offering intraday support around 24,800.

Volatility Outlook (India VIX)

The India VIX remained elevated around 14.2–14.5, keeping markets prone to sharp 100–150 point intraday swings. Expect expiry-day volatility spikes if 24,860–24,800 support breaks.

Strategy Recommendation for 25 June 2025

If breakdown below 24,860:
  • Bear Put Spread: Buy 24,900 PE, Sell 24,600 PE.
  • Add 2 lots of 24,700 PE post-breakout below 24,860.
If range-bound:
  • Iron Condor: Sell 25,100 CE, Buy 25,300 CE, Sell 24,800 PE, Buy 24,600 PE.

Key Intraday Levels

  • Breakdown trigger: 24,860
  • Bounce barrier: 25,050–25,100
  • Expiry Bias: 24,900

Conclusion:
Technical and derivatives data suggest a mild bearish bias with risk of sharp fall if 24,860 breaks. Option chain resistance at 25,200 and falling PCR confirm market fragility. Traders should deploy bear put spreads or iron condors based on early market action tomorrow. Monitor RSI breach below 50, VIX rise, and OI shifts as triggers.


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I’m Praveen Kumar, a seasoned Technical Analyst and stock market trader with over 25 years of experience in the Indian equity and derivatives markets. My passion for numbers and patterns led me to a dual career as a Mathematics Teacher and market technician. I specialize in Technical Analysis, with deep expertise in Elliott Wave Theory, derivatives strategies, and market forecasting. Over the years, my analysis and market views have been featured on NDTV Profit as a financial guest, along with published articles on reputed financial web portals, sharing insights on Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, and stock market trends. As a trader and analyst, I focus on interpreting price action, chart patterns, wave counts, and technical indicators to deliver precise market levels and actionable trade ideas. My approach blends classical charting with modern analysis tools to help traders navigate market volatility. Through VieCapital, I aim to share daily market analysis, trading strategies, and educatio…
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