23 June 2025 : Nifty 50 Alert: Geopolitical Shockwaves & Your Trading Strategy !!!

As the global markets brace for Monday's open, the Indian stock market, particularly the Nifty 50, stands at a critical juncture. The news of a US strike on an Iranian nuclear facility has sent immediate tremors through the financial world, evidenced by GIFTNIFTY already trading down by 80 points.

This unexpected geopolitical escalation fundamentally alters the previously bullish technical outlook for the Nifty 50.

The Geopolitical Earthquake: What it Means for Markets

• Risk Aversion: Global investors may shift out of equities into gold and USD.
• Crude Oil Spike: Higher prices can hurt India's inflation and CAD.
• Rupee Pressure: Weakening expected due to FII outflows.

Technical Indicators Update

• RSI: Showing bearish divergence, earlier around 59.09.
• MACD: Flat crossover zone.
• Moving Averages: Still above 20 DMA but below 5 EMA.
• Chart Pattern: Possible rising wedge breakdown.

Option Chain Data Analysis

• Call Writing: Heavy at 25,200 and 25,300 levels.
• Put Support: Strongest OI at 24,800.
• IV Spike: India VIX rose ~8% post-event.
• FII View: Increasing shorts in index futures.

Key Levels for Nifty 50 (June 23)

          Level                                    Range                 Interpretation

• Immediate Resistance 25,100 – 25,250 Previous close zone; heavy selling expected.
• Gap-Down Zone         Below 25,050     Initial opening likely; risk sentiment negative.
• Support 1                 24,800 – 24,900 First buy zone; may see a bounce.
• Support 2                 24,400 – 24,500 Strong base; major breakdown if breached.

Trade Plan for Monday

• Wait & Watch: Avoid trading in the first 30 mins.
• Option Sellers: Iron Condor with wide wings suggested: 24,600 PE & 25,300 CE.
• Directional Traders: Sell on rise near 25,050–25,100.
• Hedging: Gold or USDINR for protection.

Conclusion: With geopolitical risks taking centre stage, traders must prioritise risk control and not rely solely on traditional bullish setups.

For both Indian and US market participants looking at Nifty trading:

Exercise Extreme Caution: This is not a market for aggressive "buy the dip" strategies in the initial hours. Risk management** should be paramount.

Wait for Clarity: For most retail traders, the safest approach is to **wait for the initial panic to subside. Observe how the market stabilizes and which key levels hold or break.

Shorting Opportunities (for experienced traders):

Gap-down fade: If Nifty opens with a large gap and attempts a brief recovery, consider shorting if resistance holds at higher levels (e.g., around 25,000-25,050).

Breakdown plays: If key support levels (see table above) are decisively broken on high volume, further downside could be targeted.

Focus on sectors most vulnerable to rising crude oil prices and economic slowdown (e.g., Oil Marketing Companies, energy-intensive manufacturing) for short positions.

Safe-Haven Consideration: While not direct Nifty trading, consider exposure to traditional safe havens like Gold (via Gold ETFs if accessible) or potentially the USDINR futures (expecting Rupee depreciation).

Avoid "Catching a Falling Knife": Resisting the urge to buy into a sharply falling market without clear signs of reversal is crucial.

The Nifty 50 is now navigating uncharted waters, with geopolitical risk taking center stage over purely technical analysis. Monitor global markets, crude oil price movements, and geopolitical developments closely. Your trading strategy for June 23rd must prioritize capital preservation.

Disclaimer: This content is for educational use only and not financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk.