16 June 2025 : Nifty 50 at Make-or-Break Level: Elliott Wave, RSI Divergence, and Option Data Signal Key Move
The Nifty 50 Index is currently trading at a critical technical juncture, hovering around the 24,669 resistance zone. Let’s decode the market setup using multi-timeframe analysis — daily, weekly, and monthly charts, backed by RSI, MACD, Elliott Wave counts, and options data expiring on 19 June 2025.
Nifty 50 Technical Analysis has become more critical than ever as the index trades near key resistance levels ahead of the June 2025 expiry. With investors eyeing breakout or reversal signals, understanding the current market structure through multi-timeframe Elliott Wave analysis, RSI & MACD indicators, chart patterns, and options data is essential. In this blog, we decode whether Nifty 50 can sustain above 24,669, the crucial Fibonacci resistance, or if a short-term correction is likely. This analysis aims to guide positional and intraday traders with high-probability levels and market timing.
Monthly Chart – Final Leg of a Bullish Wave
The index appears to be in the Wave (V) of a long-term Elliott Wave structure. The projected target lies in the zone of 26,000 to 27,000, but 24,669 is acting as a key resistance level.
- MACD shows slowing bullish momentum
- RSI shows bearish divergence
- Only a monthly close above 25,000 can validate Wave V continuation
Weekly Chart – Caution Ahead of Expiry
Weekly candles form a potential evening star pattern. RSI divergence and flattening MACD histogram suggest loss of momentum. Possible pullback toward 24,000–24,200.
Long-Term Elliott Wave Count (Primary Degree)
Probable Wave Structure:
- Wave (I): March 2020 low (~7,500) to Oct 2021 (~18,600)
- Wave (II): Oct 2021–June 2022 correction (~15,200) → zig-zag
- Wave (III): June 2022 to recent top in March 2024 (~22,800–23,000) – impulsive
- Wave (IV): Sideways/flat correction till early 2025 (completed at ~21,400)
- Wave (V): Currently unfolding – projected target zone: 25,800–26,500
Fibonacci Projection:
Wave V = Wave I ≈ ~3,000 points → Adds to ~24,500 ⇒ Target ≈ 27,000 max upside
Conclusion: Currently in Wave (V) of a larger impulsive cycle. Final leg of the current bull wave.
Intermediate Waves inside Wave (V)
Let’s break down Wave (V) into its subwaves (i–v):
- (i): 21,400 → 24,100
- (ii): Pullback to ~22,800
- (iii): Currently unfolding → expected extension toward 25,300–25,700
- (iv): Possible shallow correction to 24,000
- (v): Final push to 26,000+
MACD & RSI: Losing strength → indicates we're likely in Wave (iii) topping or entering Wave (iv).
Conclusion: May complete Wave (iii) soon, watch for a pullback in Wave (iv).
Daily Chart – A Near-Term Pullback Brewing
The index is showing signs of topping out near the 0.786 Fibonacci level (24,672.85). With RSI falling and MACD losing steam, a pullback toward 24,200–24,300 is possible before another upward wave.
- Currently in Wave iv of (iii)
- Expect final push to 25,300–25,500 as Wave v of (iii)
Minor Waves within Intermediate (iii)
Probable:
- i: ~22,800 → 23,700
- ii: dip to ~23,100
- iii: surge to 24,750
- iv: current pullback underway (~24,400)
- v: rally expected toward 25,300–25,500 to complete Intermediate (iii)
Important Zone: 24,669–24,700 is acting as wave resistance and also a 0.786 fib level.
Conclusion: Short-term corrective dip (wave iv) may happen toward 24,200–24,300. Final thrust (v) may take it toward 25,500 max before deeper Wave (iv) correction on weekly.
Options Data Insight (19 June Expiry)
Call OI heavy at 24,700 & 25,000, while Put support at 24,200. Max pain zone around 24,500–24,600 aligns with current resistance zone.
(Based on standard OI patterns and what typically happens around such levels)
- Heavy Call OI buildup at 24,700 and 25,000: Indicates strong resistance.
- Put writing seen at 24,400 and 24,000: Suggests immediate support zones.
- Max Pain around 24,500–24,600, aligning with key pivot area.
Implication:
- Traders may trap bulls above 24,700 and reverse the index toward 24,400–24,200 zone.
- Only a strong close above 25,000 would force short covering.
Conclusion & Trading Strategy
Summary Table
| Timeframe | Current Wave | Status | Key Levels | Expected Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly | (V) | Unfolding | 24,669 (crucial), 26,500 | Final leg up |
| Weekly | (iii) of (V) | Nearing top | 24,000–24,700 | Pullback expected |
| Daily | iv of (iii) | Correction | 24,200–24,300 | One more push to 25,300–25,500 |
Strategy Suggestion (Elliott Wave Aligned)
- Be cautious of Wave (iv) correction on the weekly scale.
- Buy on dips near 24,200, SL below 24,000
- Target 25,300–25,500 in short term
- Wave (iv) correction likely after next bounce
In conclusion, Nifty 50 remains in a decisive zone, with technical and wave structures suggesting a possible short-term pullback before the final leg higher. Traders should watch the 24,200–24,300 support and resistance at 24,700–25,000 for directional clarity. As per Elliott Wave Theory, the index may still complete Wave (v) of (iii) before entering a larger consolidation. Keep an eye on options data shifts as we head closer to the June 19 expiry. For more updates and chart-based strategies, don't forget to follow us on Twitter and bookmark this blog for real-time insights.
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