09 June 2025 : Nifty 50 Elliott Wave Outlook: post RBI Policy, FII DII Data, Option Chain & Weekly Strategy
Nifty 50 Weekly Outlook — June 2025
Nifty Elliott Wave analysis for the upcoming week indicates a crucial expanded flat correction nearing completion at 25,000–25,100. This level remains a vital breakout zone for traders and investors.
Technical Indicators Overview
- Weekly RSI: 70 (Bullish)
- Daily MACD: Flattening near positive crossover
- Hourly EMA: Bullish breakout above 50 EMA
Hourly Chart
Daily Chart
Weekly Chart
FII DII Cash & Derivatives Data (June 2–6)
FIIs sold ₹3,566 Cr while DIIs bought ₹25,513 Cr in the cash market. In the derivatives segment, FIIs maintained a short bias, while option data suggested a potential short-covering rally above 25,050.
Option Chain Data
- Highest Call OI: 25,200
- Highest Put OI: 24,600
- Range bound between 24,600–25,200
RBI Policy Highlights
The RBI held the repo rate steady at 6.50%, adopting a dovish stance while remaining cautious on inflation, creating a liquidity-friendly backdrop for equity markets.
Trading Strategy Table
| Scenario | Strategy | Target | Stop-loss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breakout above 25,050 | Buy Nifty Futures / 25,000CE | 25,200 → 25,500 | 24,900 |
| Rejection at 25,100–25,200 | Short Futures / Buy 25,000PE | 24,600 → 24,250 | 25,150 |
| Hourly close below 24,600 | Sell Futures / Buy PE | 24,250 | 24,750 |
Elliott Wave Summary
Current Elliott Wave position of Nifty suggests a probable Wave (c) of Minute ((ii)) ending near 25,100. The next move could either be a breakdown toward 24,250 or a fresh impulse wave (5) targeting 27,000+ on a breakout.
✅ Conclusion
Nifty 50 outlook for the week favors a tight range of 24,600–25,200, with a breakout or breakdown expected on either side, guided by FII DII data, option chain pressure points, and Elliott Wave completion levels.
As the market approaches a decisive range between 24,600 and 25,200, traders must watch for a confirmed breakout or breakdown to set the tone for the upcoming sessions. A sustained move above 25,200 could trigger a fresh rally toward the psychological milestone of 26,000, driven by short covering, FII buying, and bullish option chain shifts. Conversely, if the index slips below 24,600, it may spark a corrective wave targeting 24,000, especially if accompanied by renewed FII selling and bearish derivatives positioning. Traders are advised to stay alert around these crucial levels as both technical and fundamental cues align for a potentially volatile week in the Nifty 50.
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