Nifty 50 - Analysis

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NIFTY MONTHLY VIEW for MAY 2025 - A pullback, not a fall is expected in this month. May bottom will be respected for next three months.

 

Hello everyone, 

The Nifty 50 index saw a substantial rebound in April 2025, mostly due to a large inflow of foreign portfolio investments (FPIs). FPIs made the largest purchasing run since July 2023, injecting around $4.11 billion into Indian stocks over nine straight trading sessions. The Nifty 50 index increased 6.6% during this time due to this significant investment, although it was still 7.4% behind its peak in September 2024. ​

Admittedly, this is perhaps the strongest argument I can currently come up with. You must remember that it will not be easy to collapse.

Look at the distinction between the March and April monthly closings. Even in the worst scenario, there won't be a break through the 23000 to 22800 levels in the event of the pullback that I anticipate. Not even in the case of the conflict between India and Pakistan.

From a charting pattern perspective, the last five months have been consolidated, and the increase has just started. Nothing is unexpected right now, but I do see the potential for a new all-time high during the months of September and October.

The global recession is my only concern. The story of India would also be different if that were the case. Indian market will fall less than other. 

Technicals

As of April 30, 2025, the Nifty 50 index closed at 24,334.20, marking a 3.46% gain for the month. This rise was supported by strong foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows and positive sentiment in domestic sectors such as banking and FMCG.

Technical Indicators Overview:

  • 200-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The Nifty 50 remained above its 200-day EMA throughout April, indicating a bullish trend.​
  • Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI hovered in the 55–75 range, suggesting bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. 
  • Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): A positive crossover above the zero line was observed, reinforcing the bullish outlook. ​
  • Stochastic Oscillator: Readings remained between 55 and 80, indicating bullish conditions without signaling overbought levels. ​
  • Rate of Change (ROC): The ROC stayed above zero, reflecting positive price momentum. ​
  • Commodity Channel Index (CCI): Values ranged between 50 and 200, aligning with a bullish market sentiment. ​
  • RSI - Worried due to divergence. 
  • INDIA VIX - at 18.22, this is worried part and indicating a pullback. 
  • Support and Resistance Levels:

  • Support: The index found support around the 23,700–23,800 zone.

  • Resistance: Resistance was noted in the 24,900–25,000 range. 

Market Sentiment:

The technical indicators collectively suggest a bullish trend for the Nifty 50 as of the end of April 2025. However, investors should remain cautious of potential geopolitical developments and global economic factors that could influence market dynamics.


I’m Praveen Kumar, a seasoned Technical Analyst and stock market trader with over 25 years of experience in the Indian equity and derivatives markets. My passion for numbers and patterns led me to a dual career as a Mathematics Teacher and market technician. I specialize in Technical Analysis, with deep expertise in Elliott Wave Theory, derivatives strategies, and market forecasting. Over the years, my analysis and market views have been featured on NDTV Profit as a financial guest, along with published articles on reputed financial web portals, sharing insights on Nifty 50, Bank Nifty, and stock market trends. As a trader and analyst, I focus on interpreting price action, chart patterns, wave counts, and technical indicators to deliver precise market levels and actionable trade ideas. My approach blends classical charting with modern analysis tools to help traders navigate market volatility. Through VieCapital, I aim to share daily market analysis, trading strategies, and educatio…
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